Free Playoff Handicapping Contest

[craig]

A couple of months ago I had asked people what features they wanted from a website. A few people had said contests. We are testing our "contest" feature and basically want people to beta test it for us (there are free cash prizes of course). You can participate in the contest here:

www.sportsbookpal.com/contest.php3 (http://www.sportsbookpal.com/contest.php3)

We are not trying to spam. We just want to see how well it works before we start advertising. You can read about the rules and prizes at the above site, but here are the prizes here as well:

1st: $100
2nd: $50
3rd: $25

Depending on the number of entrants, we might add to the pool. Please let me know if you have any questions.

craig

[PropPlayer]

I registered. Thanks

[lastsamurai]

First place is MINE!

[TheRover]

First time I got an error message, second time said only 1 entry per person so I assume it went through alright anyway.

[MyTurn2Raise]

[ QUOTE ]
I registered. Thanks /images/graemlins/heart.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

[DougOzzzz]

I have your picks. Not sure why you got an error message. What did it say? Did you get the e-mail?

[TheRover]

Internal service error, iirc or something like that. Just checked my e-mail and I don't see anything.

[DougOzzzz]

my guess is that we were having server issues which prevented the email from being sent out. I had a few problems when viewing our database earlier so it is probably related. I will manually verify your e-mail. If anyone else did not get an e-mail response please let me know either in this thread or by PM. I apologize for the error and I will try to fix it for the future.

[Allin72]

i got an email but idk if it registered, because my screen went blank. Beaner1236 was my screen name, are my picks shown?

[DougOzzzz]

yes, the picks showed up.

The DB is showing exactly 8 times as many picks as there are users, so if you got an e-mail you should be OK.

[craig]

[ QUOTE ]
First place is MINE!

[/ QUOTE ]

Not if the goal is to pick the most winners /images/graemlins/smile.gif.

craig

[chiachu]

nice to see your site comming along.

one question i had about the layout/design though. The tabs on the left side of the site change depending on what page you're looking at... why? looks kind of odd when you're clicking on the tabs to browse around, and the tabs themselves keep changing as well /images/graemlins/confused.gif

just my 2 cents

[craig]

I assume you are talking about the "links" on the left. Yeah, it doesn't show the link for the page you are actually on. So, if you are "home" that link won't be there. I assume, like I said, that is what you mean.

craig

[Dudd]

One thing, you really should allow usernames of less than 5 characters, as I was forced to become Dudd1.

[Scruff]

I'm in, pretty psyched that I'm going to win a $100 on a freeroll!

[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]
One thing, you really should allow usernames of less than 5 characters, as I was forced to become Dudd1.

[/ QUOTE ]

I changed your username to Dudd, and changed the minimum characters to 3.

[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]
I assume you are talking about the "links" on the left. Yeah, it doesn't show the link for the page you are actually on. So, if you are "home" that link won't be there. I assume, like I said, that is what you mean.

craig

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, he has a point. I just browsed the site and not only does the link to the page you are on disappear, but some pages don't have links to all other pages. For instance the line converter doesn't have a link to the contest, the contest doesn't have a link to the line converter, etc. I think this should be fixed.

[DougOzzzz]

Update -

We have balanced action on most picks. Easily the most lopsided game is the NE-JAX game, where over 75% of entrants are on the Jags +7.5. There is a lean towards the over in NE-JAX, and the under in PIT-CIN. Unfortunately for PIT-CIN under bettors, the line recently moved to 46.5 (1 entry has already taken advantage of this).

The Jags are only the 3rd most popular best bet, though. Cincinnati currently leads that category, followed closely by the Giants. Nobody has NE or Tampa as their best bet. Currently 80% of the best bets are on sides rather than totals.

After a static first day, the lines have finally started moving a bit. Tampa is 5 cents cheaper against Washington, the under in NE/JAX is cheaper as well (good news for the majority of entrants that are on the over already). The most interesting line move is the Giants/Panthers. The line was +3 -125 on Carolina before, and is +2.5 -110 now. Giants by 3 would cause an uproar - then again Feely would actually have to make a FG for that to happen.

There were a few periods yesterday where the feed from Bowman's went dead. I'll try to be on top of it today, but can't offer any guarantees. The contest was still up at all times, but the lines were not completely up to date (although, I don't think we missed any line moves as they didn't change at all until late last night). Those of you who may see different lines at Bowman's note that these are the "sharp" lines.

Good luck to everyone who entered.

[craig]

It will be updated by the end of the day.

craig

[Performify]

I'm entered as Performify. Thanks for setting this up.

[craig]

It is updated now!

craig

[FYYFF]

Is there a way to view your picks after you've made them? I already forgot....

[craig]

[ QUOTE ]
Is there a way to view your picks after you've made them? I already forgot....

[/ QUOTE ]

Email doug@sportsbookpal.com and he will be able to let you know your picks. We will add a feature in the future so you can always see your picks.

craig

[DougOzzzz]

not yet, I'll add something soon though. I sort of rushed through this in order to get it ready for the playoffs.

I will PM you your picks in a bit. What is your user ID?

[FYYFF]

[ QUOTE ]
not yet, I'll add something soon though. I sort of rushed through this in order to get it ready for the playoffs.

I will PM you your picks in a bit. What is your user ID?

[/ QUOTE ]

Beerfund

Thanks

[craig]

Is anybody else having any errors registering?

craig

[DougOzzzz]

Just over 12 hours left to enter the contest.

[TWolf2006]

No errors here.

Good luck to evreryone.

[lastsamurai]

what about doing a weekly pick em contest or something like a 3+1 challenge...that will keep people coming back every week...f

[DougOzzzz]

Okay, another bump.

Less than THREE hours to get in on this thing. Last warning.

[20Five]

i think im in doug.. just sent my reply email..

thanks for the fun contest /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[DougOzzzz]

As of right now, I am pulling the contest.

Thank you for everyone who participated. Good luck to all (except those who picked Jacksonville).

I am learning as I go, so hopefully things will be much smoother next time. For those of you that did not reply to the e-mail (or perhaps didn't get it) - don't worry about it. Everyone who entered is going to be eligible for the prizes.

I will work on getting a results and individual picks pages. Hopefully those will be available some time tonight.

[DougOzzzz]

Update:

Current standings can be seen here (http://www.sportsbookpal.com/results.php3). I'll have links on each contestant to see individual results and picks tomorrow.

[DougOzzzz]

FYI - DOUGISTIRED, DOUGOZZZZ, and CRAIGSUCKS are ineligible for prizes. Also, sorry about changing the user names to all caps. I wanted to not have it be case sensitive, but this was a crappy way to handle it (will fix in future).

[BobJoeJim]

So if I count right, that means 65 eligible entries? Good luck to everyone else, I wish you the best in your attempts to finish second /images/graemlins/wink.gif If only I had some idea where to start on over/unders...

By the way, the site outside of this contest is awesome, I absolutely love the databases. Do you have any plans to include databases for any other sports in the future? A college football database would absolutely make my day, month, and even year.

[DougOzzzz]

yeah, I'm working on it. Next up is baseball, in time for the season. Thanks for the compliment.

[DougOzzzz]

There are now links on the results (http://www.sportsbookpal.com/results.php3) page to see each contestants individual picks.

[DougOzzzz]

Results updated to include tonight's game.

Congrats to Eggzz, Lastsamurai, and Slacker00 who went a perfect 4-0 today.

http://www.sportsbookpal.com/results.php3

[DougOzzzz]

Fixed a bug in the standings. It wasn't multiplying losses by 1.5 for Best Bet losses.

[BobJoeJim]

Any chance you could tweak the standings so that they include a numerical rank, so that we don't have to count down through, well, way too much of the list to find out where we're ranked? It doesn't matter TOO much right now, with all the ties, but as people begin to separate from each other it would be pretty nifty.

[DougOzzzz]

Done.

[DougOzzzz]

Updated to include the Carolina/Giants game.

Eggzz stands alone at 6-0, but his best bet (PIT-CIN U46.5 -110) is still undecided.

[eggzz]

[ QUOTE ]
Updated to include the Carolina/Giants game.

Eggzz stands alone at 6-0, but his best bet (PIT-CIN U46.5 -110) is still undecided.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can we end the contest now?
All the first round games can't go UNDER can they?!?

Keep playing defense boys...

[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Updated to include the Carolina/Giants game.

Eggzz stands alone at 6-0, but his best bet (PIT-CIN U46.5 -110) is still undecided.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can we end the contest now?
All the first round games can't go UNDER can they?!?

Keep playing defense boys...

[/ QUOTE ]

For what it's worth I am also on the UNDER in this game (real money I mean, not the contest). Then again if we see a lot more 66 yard passes from Carson Palmer it doesn't look good.

[BobJoeJim]

Something tells me we won't see too many more 66 yard passes from Palmer...

Under looks solid now, but Cincy's offense hasn't looked to bad without Carson yet, so we'll still have to wait and see.

[20Five]

this contest is awesome with the updates to the results and stuff.. keep up the good work guys! /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[DougOzzzz]

sorry man - looks like I jinxed you.

[DougOzzzz]

We are debating whether or not to allow new entries starting week 2.

We feel that it would be good to the site to get as many people to come as possible - however, I'm not sure if it is fair to those who entered week 1.

Most people have lost so far (mostly thanks to NE's 28-3 win over JAX), so maybe we shouldn't start them at 0. Average loss is around 180 now, probably over 200 after tonights game (39-29 split in favor of the under, which looks doomed).

So, a penalty of 200 might be fair. This will probably put them in the bottom half of the standings. Also, keep in mind that because this is a short contest and only the top 3 finishers get paid, variance is a good thing. So, the person starting next week at -200 while about average in the standings, will have a significantly lower chance of cashing than the person who started last week at 0. But, there will still be 4050 left to wager, so they are far from out of it.

Let me know what you guys think.

[BobJoeJim]

I think it's entirely fair to allow new entries, and possibly even to start them at 0. Since this is a gambling site, it's not your pick-rate that matters, it's how much money you win or lose. Given that, there's no reason you shouldn't be able to join late, it just means you lost a week's opportunity to make some money.

On the other hand, though, since it was mandatory to pick all 8 lines, new joiners also escaped the possibility of losing money week 1, so if you start them at the average dollar amount (which I assume will be approximately the equivalent of going 4-4, and losing the juice), that would probably be the most fair. I certainly wouldn't object.

[20Five]

PS.. very pumped to see what you guys have in store for the baseball season.. really looking forward to betting that this year /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[DougOzzzz]

Week 1 is completed. At the top of the standings, with a 10 dollar lead, is Slacker00 with a 7-1 record and 1280 won.

Edit:

Link to standings (http://www.sportsbookpal.com/results.php3)
for those who don't want to scroll up.

[eggzz]

[ QUOTE ]
sorry man - looks like I jinxed you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Go figure, only I could go 7-1 and not win a Best Bet!

As far as allowing new entries in, I suppose that minus 200 is the fairest option, but if you just started them at minus 100, it would give them at least a tiny hill to climb.

[DougOzzzz]

You can now make your selections for next weeks games.

Link (http://www.sportsbookpal.com/contest.php3).

Currently haven't set it up to take new users yet. Will work on that soon (hopefully tonight). Also, there will be a log in to view your pick history. Only week 1 picks will be displayed on the individual results link from the standings. I decided it is best to keep each player's picks "secret", to stop any game theory strategy (such as, the leader picking all the same teams as the person in 2nd place). Once the games start the picks will be available for all to see, just as they were this week.

[Peca277]

When I submit my picks, I get a page that says "Please hit the back button on your browser and fill out all fields." What'd I do wrong?

[DougOzzzz]

Crap. Looks like somehow the old version got put back up there. I am not sure why. Sorry for the error (fixed now).

[NoChance]

[ QUOTE ]
Week 1 is completed. At the top of the standings, with a 10 dollar lead, is Slacker00 with a 7-1 record and 1280 won.

[/ QUOTE ]

Darn it. I was busy with work and all and didn't get in. I would be tied with Slacker /images/graemlins/frown.gif

The one I missed was Jacksonville.

[BobJoeJim]

Is there any way we could make some of our picks now and some later? Or do we just have to take the good line movement with the bad?

[DougOzzzz]

In future contests I would like to do it that way. It was significantly easier to set it up this way, though.

[BobJoeJim]

Fair enough, I figured it would've been tougher to set up that way, but it would be cool.

[DougOzzzz]

For those that missed out on week 1, we are now accepting new users for Week 2. All new users will start out with 0.

On the contest (http://www.sportsbookpal.com/contest.php3) page, just click on the link to sign up first before making your picks.

[LargeCents]

I just made my picks for week 2, and it says that I need to reply to an email to be eligible for prizes. But, I did not receive an email. Anyone else?

[DougOzzzz]

oh, you don't have to do that. though, you should have gotten a 2nd e-mail (not sure why you didn't). Sorry, forgot to change that message from last week.

[LargeCents]

[ QUOTE ]
oh, you don't have to do that. though, you should have gotten a 2nd e-mail (not sure why you didn't). Sorry, forgot to change that message from last week.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's cool. I know you are working out the kinks during this particular contest. Great job so far.

[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
oh, you don't have to do that. though, you should have gotten a 2nd e-mail (not sure why you didn't). Sorry, forgot to change that message from last week.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's cool. I know you are working out the kinks during this particular contest. Great job so far.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks. I appreciate all the support. I worked hard on this, and will continue to do so to make the contests as good as possible. That is why we offered such a generous prize scale (considering the relatively low number of entrants). In comparison with another NFL playoff contest, we are offering about 10% of their total prize pool with only 2% of the number of entrants. We are also probably going to increase the payouts a bit.

The goal is to try to work out all the problems the first time around, and to create a small "following" that we can build upon.

While the positive feedback is nice - we also appreciate any suggestions for future contests. For instance, BobJoeJim had a very valid complaint about being forced to make all picks at the same time. We feel that this is not an accurate representation of sports betting, and that participants SHOULD be able to place their bets at different times of the week in order to get the best price on each bet. I knew I was cutting corners when I set it up this way, but it was good to hear that I was not the only one that felt that this wasn't the perfect setup (even though, the vast majority of contestants probably would make all their selections at the same time anyway).

By the way, the "other" site I mentioned that is offering free contests is wagerline.com. It is probably not in our best interest to mention our "competition", but I do feel that we have the ability to offer some things that wagerline cannot with our contests. Any suggestions would be greatly appreciated.

[chiachu]

bleh i lost more money.. what else is new? /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

A minor detail:
From the contest standings page, the link on the left of the page to the playoff contest is incorrect.
its currently: http://www.sportsbookpal.com/contest.htm
it should be: http://www.sportsbookpal.com/contest.php3

link seems to be fine on every other page though /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

(im such a nit)

[craig]

thank you..i am fixing now

craig

[chiachu]

sudden realization:

maybe i should finally dust off those html and javascript books and actually try to learn something usefully.
I might be homeless when i graduate if i stay this lazy /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

[TheRover]

So what happens if you're too stupid to remember your password?

[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]
So what happens if you're too stupid to remember your password?

[/ QUOTE ]

There is a $50 password recovery fee.

Actually - I'll get on it soon. If you want to PM me a new password you can, otherwise I will "fix" it so you can adjust it. I cannot see passwords, they are encoded and AFAIK there is no way to "decode" them. I plan on having a Forgot password link where you can change your password. You will get an e-mail with a link to a page that will let you change your password. I don't think there is any other way to do it, unless I want to store actual passwords in the DB (I'm not sure how other sites handle this type of thing).

[craig]

On the site I work for, not sportsbookpal.com, we do not have them. We have to manually reset for our customers.

craig

[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]
On the site I work for, not sportsbookpal.com, we do not have them. We have to manually reset for our customers.

craig

[/ QUOTE ]

yes well, we can do better than that. I just don't think we can e-mail people their actual password. We can e-mail a page with a link to change their password, but no actual password. It won't take long to set up, I have just been lazy since I am back at my "real" job.

[FYYFF]

[ QUOTE ]
I just don't think we can e-mail people their actual password.

[/ QUOTE ]

The email I received after registering hand my login name and password.

[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I just don't think we can e-mail people their actual password.

[/ QUOTE ]

The email I received after registering hand my login name and password.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah... that's because the password is received from the form.

When it is entered into the DB it is encoded. I don't have a record of the passwords anywhere before encoding them (nor do I think I should), though a few of you responded to the e-mail with the password quoted.

Also, TheRover mentioned before that he never got the e-mail, so he couldn't look it up that way.

[craig]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I just don't think we can e-mail people their actual password.

[/ QUOTE ]

The email I received after registering hand my login name and password.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually that was the login and password for G.W. Bush's email.

craig

[DougOzzzz]

Just a reminder that this is likely going to be the last chance to sign up for the contest. New entrants are still in pretty decent shape. I'd guess their EV is slightly lower than those who entered at the start, but it is still free money.

Also, quite a few of you have yet to submit picks for Week 2. This includes a full half of the top 10. You've still got about 13.5 hours to do so.

[PropPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd guess their EV is slightly lower than those who entered at the start

[/ QUOTE ]

If they signed up this week their $160 ahead of me.
Went 3-3 but lost my Best Bet and Vigs.

[20Five]

doug, i think i did submit my plays for this weekend, but im not sure.. is there a way for you to check? thanks.. keep up the great work /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[BobJoeJim]

[ QUOTE ]
doug, i think i did submit my plays for this weekend, but im not sure.. is there a way for you to check? thanks.. keep up the great work /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]
Check the standings, it lists how many open bets you have. 8 is good, you've submitted plays. 0 is bad, go submit your plays now /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[20Five]

hmm.. now if i try to submit picks again, it says they have already been recieved for this week? /images/graemlins/blush.gif

[TWolf2006]

I've submitted my picks twice now and I stil show a pending bets of zero

[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]
I've submitted my picks twice now and I stil show a pending bets of zero

[/ QUOTE ]

are you sure? I see 8.

I also see an 8 next to 20Five, so it looks like you are both okay.

[20Five]

sweet, appreciate the concern doug /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[DougOzzzz]

it is interesting how the results so far seem to have no bearing on whether or not I received week 2 picks. There are more guys without picks in the top 12 (4) than the bottom 12 (3).

Thanks to all the losers who are sticking with it. Some day you will make a bookie very happy (kidding).

[DougOzzzz]

The links on the standings (http://www.sportsbookpal.com/results.php3) page will now show all picks, including this weeks.

Breakdown of this weeks picks:

Washington 34 (most popular pick)
Seattle 15

New England 31
Denver 18

Pittsburgh 28
Indy 21

Carolina 24
Chicago 25

Chicago is the only favorite expected to cover. Overall dogs were more popular than favorites 117-79.

I won't post the over-under breakdowns - because they are all almost exactly the same. The over is popular in every game, by a factor of about 3-2. The smallest difference is 29-20, and the greatest difference is 31-18.

Overall overs beat unders by a score of 120-76.

"Best bets" were given out in the following manner:
Washington - 13
Denver - 10
Chicago - 7
New England -5
All others - 2 or less.

A full 55% of people on Denver also had them as their best bet. only 16% of New England bettors were as confident.

[BobJoeJim]

[ QUOTE ]
Overall overs beat unders by a score of 120-76.

[/ QUOTE ]
Huh, apparently my strategy of going with the under in every game isn't too poplular, lol. I guess that means there won't be many people wishing me luck.

[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Overall overs beat unders by a score of 120-76.

[/ QUOTE ]
Huh, apparently my strategy of going with the under in every game isn't too poplular, lol. I guess that means there won't be many people wishing me luck.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you had known this information, it would have been an excellent strategy. If all the unders come through you will gain a ton of ground on everyone else.

Conversely, if all the games go over, there will a ton of people with high scores (and you will be out of the running). Since prizes are only given to the top 3, more variance is good.

[BobJoeJim]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Overall overs beat unders by a score of 120-76.

[/ QUOTE ]
Huh, apparently my strategy of going with the under in every game isn't too poplular, lol. I guess that means there won't be many people wishing me luck.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you had known this information, it would have been an excellent strategy. If all the unders come through you will gain a ton of ground on everyone else.

Conversely, if all the games go over, there will a ton of people with high scores (and you will be out of the running). Since prizes are only given to the top 3, more variance is good.

[/ QUOTE ]
After week 1 I'm about $1900 behind the leaders, and in the bottom 10, so I don't know how relevant strategy concerns like that are yet. If all four games go under, though, and I get 2-3 spreads, well then maybe I'll be back in it. Under #1 looks good so far (14-3 Seattle right now in the third quarter).

[DougOzzzz]

If WAS doesn't score here the whole contest is going to lose a TON.

[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]
If WAS doesn't score here the whole contest is going to lose a TON.

[/ QUOTE ]

The results (http://www.sportsbookpal.com/results.php3) are up. The contest as a whole lost $8445 on this game. That averages out to about $170 per person.

I guess those who sat out week 2 might be in good shape should they decide to play again.

[DougOzzzz]

Stat of the moment:

One half (36 players) of the contest is down at least $500.

4 contestants are up $500 or more.

[BobJoeJim]

[ QUOTE ]
Stat of the moment:

One half (36 players) of the contest is down at least $500.

4 contestants are up $500 or more.

[/ QUOTE ]
Hopefully the contest as a whole does just as bad on game #2, I've faded the group with Denver and the Under, I'd like to get back into the top 50 with this game /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[TheRover]

Heh, I should wait longer to put my picks in on this. Twice I've went against what I've picked here and won both times (WAS, SEA).

Afraid I'll forget though.

[PropPlayer]

I did the same thing. Put my picks in as soon as I could and then forgot what they were later. The first week I went against 3 of my picks, and this week I am against 4.

[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Stat of the moment:

One half (36 players) of the contest is down at least $500.

4 contestants are up $500 or more.

[/ QUOTE ]
Hopefully the contest as a whole does just as bad on game #2, I've faded the group with Denver and the Under, I'd like to get back into the top 50 with this game /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

You got your wish. Under and the Broncos were winners - making the contestants 0 for 4 today on their popular picks. The 10 best bets on Denver helped keep us from completely embarrassing ourselves. We "only" lost a little under 5000 on tonights game - for a total of 13,415 today, and 30,886 total. Not too pretty.

Two perfect entries today - by Nisses and Performify.

Nisses was down over 1K, and has come back all the way to 23rd place. Performify was hanging around the middle in the negative range, and has jumped all the way up to 5th.

[DougOzzzz]

I probably should give out some props to
Slacker00 and Eggzz for weathering the rough day and sharing the lead at 1130 each. The rest of the standings can be found here (http://www.sportsbookpal.com/results.php3).

[niss]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Stat of the moment:

One half (36 players) of the contest is down at least $500.

4 contestants are up $500 or more.

[/ QUOTE ]
Hopefully the contest as a whole does just as bad on game #2, I've faded the group with Denver and the Under, I'd like to get back into the top 50 with this game /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

You got your wish. Under and the Broncos were winners - making the contestants 0 for 4 today on their popular picks. The 10 best bets on Denver helped keep us from completely embarrassing ourselves. We "only" lost a little under 5000 on tonights game - for a total of 13,415 today, and 30,886 total. Not too pretty.

Two perfect entries today - by Nisses and Performify.

Nisses was down over 1K, and has come back all the way to 23rd place. Performify was hanging around the middle in the negative range, and has jumped all the way up to 5th.

[/ QUOTE ]

I will make Performify my bitch.

It's not fun unless you spot everyone, like, a $2500 head start.

[Performify]

[ QUOTE ]
Two perfect entries today - by Nisses and Performify.

Nisses was down over 1K, and has come back all the way to 23rd place. Performify was hanging around the middle in the negative range, and has jumped all the way up to 5th.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

Really made me wish that i'd emailed you guys in week one to change my picks. I made my selections in the contest before finishing my final analysis for the week, and once I'd done my handicapping I changed my position on a couple games which would have given me a much better result for last week too. But anyways... thanks again for sponsoring this. Cool stuff for a free sports betting resource site offering great signup offers and nice free tools (http://www.sportsbookpal.com), given that you were certainly under no obligation to offer a fun free $$$ contest like this... just wanted to say "thanks again".

[BobJoeJim]

[ QUOTE ]
But anyways... thanks again for sponsoring this. Cool stuff for a free sports betting resource site offering great signup offers and nice free tools (http://www.sportsbookpal.com), given that you were certainly under no obligation to offer a fun free $$$ contest like this... just wanted to say "thanks again".

[/ QUOTE ]
Hear hear!
And while I didn't go perfect, 3/4 with a best bet is pretty satisfying. 27th out of 72 feels a lot better than 65th, lol. Now go Pittsburgh (I'd really love a straight up win here since I have 1 unit each on Denver and Pitt to win the AFC), go Carolina (purely for contest's sake) and GO UNDERS!

[Jack of Arcades]

I suck at O/U.

[DougOzzzz]

Results (http://www.sportsbookpal.com/results.php3) are up after the Pitt-Indy game. The contest finally won one, as the majority of people were on Pitt.

Eggzz is alone in the lead. He is still riding a perfect 1st day, and has stayed in the top 3 ever since.

In other news, despite the poor performance of the rest of the contest, both of my entries (CraigSucks and DougOzzzz) have made it into the positive range. Of course, I can't win any prizes myself.

[craig]

I am going to take my $100 (I WILL catch Eggzz /images/graemlins/smile.gif ) and finally buy my soon to be born child a crib. I just hope it fits in my car.

craig

p.s. I am pretty sure DougOzzzz mentioned that we can't win even if we win.

[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]
I am going to take my $100 (I WILL catch Eggzz /images/graemlins/smile.gif ) and finally buy my soon to be born child a crib. I just hope it fits in my car.

craig

p.s. I am pretty sure DougOzzzz mentioned that we can't win even if we win.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your entry, DougIsTired, lost both the total and the side today and is in 27th place. Me > you.

[TWolf2006]

Shoot I screwed up my pick. I bet Pittsburgh to cover but some reason I took indy on the free contest. Oh well go carolina and the over.

[craig]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I am going to take my $100 (I WILL catch Eggzz /images/graemlins/smile.gif ) and finally buy my soon to be born child a crib. I just hope it fits in my car.

craig

p.s. I am pretty sure DougOzzzz mentioned that we can't win even if we win.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your entry, DougIsTired, lost both the total and the side today and is in 27th place. Me > you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I guess the kid will sleep on the floor. Oh well!

[TheRover]

For my 1000th post, I'd like to point out that I'm 8-0 on totals.

[DougOzzzz]

For my 1,365th post, I'd like to point out that you are 2-5 picking sides, and likely to go 2-6 after Chicago loses.

Edit: only kidding. Good job on the totals.

[TheRover]

Well, if you want to be negative about it...

[TWolf2006]

LOL. I think I'm exaxtly the opposite. Good on the sides terrible on the over/under. 2-0 on tonights game moved up to 8th.

[DougOzzzz]

Results (http://www.sportsbookpal.com/results.php3) are up after week 2. Eggzz hangs onto the lead. The Rover is in 2nd, after going 8-0 on totals. Lastsamurai is in 3rd after sitting out week 2.

[BobJoeJim]

[ QUOTE ]
Lastsamurai is in 3rd after sitting out week 2.

[/ QUOTE ]
Last Samurai beat me by $10 this week, I should have sat out week 1 too /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

Edit: Misread the original post, I thought you said LastSamurai sat out week 1, lol. I did do well this week, but bombed week 1.

[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
<a href="www.sportsbookpal.com/results.php3" target="_blank">Results</a> are up after week 2. Eggzz hangs onto the lead. The Rover is in 2nd, after going 8-0 on totals. Lastsamurai is in 3rd after sitting out week 2.

[/ QUOTE ]
Last Samurai beat me by $10 this week, I should have sat out week 1 too /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

How do you figure that? I have you as winning a substantial amount week 2.

[DougOzzzz]

You can now make picks for the League championship games. Remember, the stakes are now 300 per game and 450 for best bets.

[TheRover]

[ QUOTE ]
.
Sorry. We have already received picks from you for this week.

[/ QUOTE ]

Got this. Let me know if they went through alright.

[DougOzzzz]

[censored]. I screwed up. Your picks didn't go through, nor did anyone else's who submitted picks recently. I forgot to change the submit contest page to only accept picks from those who haven't made picks for week 3 (rather than week 2). This will all be automated by the next contest, so my screw-ups won't be a factor.

[MyTurn2Raise]

LOLOLOLOLOLOLOL....I said I suck at the NFL and i do

[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]
LOLOLOLOLOLOLOL....I said I suck at the NFL and i do

[/ QUOTE ]

well, we will have NBA and CBB contests in the near future for people who suck at the NFL like you.

[BobJoeJim]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
LOLOLOLOLOLOLOL....I said I suck at the NFL and i do

[/ QUOTE ]

well, we will have NBA and CBB contests in the near future for people who suck at the NFL like you.

[/ QUOTE ]
Will your CBB contest have anything to do with the NCAA tourney, perchance? I mean I know it's unlikely that you'll go that direction, but unlike most people I actually enjoy the NCAA Tourney, and it gets so little attention, so if you were to actually do some sort of Tourney pick'em challence that would be swell /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
LOLOLOLOLOLOLOL....I said I suck at the NFL and i do

[/ QUOTE ]

well, we will have NBA and CBB contests in the near future for people who suck at the NFL like you.

[/ QUOTE ]
Will your CBB contest have anything to do with the NCAA tourney, perchance? I mean I know it's unlikely that you'll go that direction, but unlike most people I actually enjoy the NCAA Tourney, and it gets so little attention, so if you were to actually do some sort of Tourney pick'em challence that would be swell /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

I doubt it. Pretty much everyone hates the NCAA tourney. Bookies hate it especially because NO ONE ever bets on it. Office pools, which usually thrive on weekly WNBA and Arena Football action, are almost non-existant during this time period. I was thinking our CBB contest would be for the Sun Belt Conference regular season games. Much more interest in those than the NCAA tourney.

[BobJoeJim]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
LOLOLOLOLOLOLOL....I said I suck at the NFL and i do

[/ QUOTE ]

well, we will have NBA and CBB contests in the near future for people who suck at the NFL like you.

[/ QUOTE ]
Will your CBB contest have anything to do with the NCAA tourney, perchance? I mean I know it's unlikely that you'll go that direction, but unlike most people I actually enjoy the NCAA Tourney, and it gets so little attention, so if you were to actually do some sort of Tourney pick'em challence that would be swell /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

I doubt it. Pretty much everyone hates the NCAA tourney. Bookies hate it especially because NO ONE ever bets on it. Office pools, which usually thrive on weekly WNBA and Arena Football action, are almost non-existant during this time period. I was thinking our CBB contest would be for the Sun Belt Conference regular season games. Much more interest in those than the NCAA tourney.

[/ QUOTE ]
Oh. Rats. Fair enough though, I guess you have to cater to the majority. Stupid Sun Belt, I'm sick of them getting all the attention, but oh well, I guess I'll just have to suck it up and play anyway. It's better than nothing. I doubt my odds will be any good though, too many people will enter with the Sun Belt as a draw.

[Jack of Arcades]

Goddamn do I suck. At least I got my best bet right.

[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]
Goddamn do I suck. At least I got my best bet right.

[/ QUOTE ]

The best bet seemed like an obvious call. If I were not a Pats fan, Denver probably would have been my biggest play of the year. And I know a lot of "sharps" agree.

[Jack of Arcades]

Yeah. I basically stay off of most nfl games unless I really like the line. This was one of those times.

[craig]

Just wanted to let everybody know that we have added a 4th place prize of a brand new copy of Stanford Wong's book Sharp Sports Betting. So, even if you think you are out of the runnings, you might as well make some picks and try for 4th. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

craig

[DougOzzzz]

Just over 9 hours left until the games start. Still several contestants with a good shot to win yet to submit picks, including the current leader.

With only 4 totals/sides to pick this weekend and the raised stakes, there are bound to be some big winners - so I wouldn't count on Eggzz lead holding up.

Picks are split right down the middle so far, with no side or total garnering more than 56% of action.

[eggzz]

[ QUOTE ]
Just over 9 hours left until the games start. Still several contestants with a good shot to win yet to submit picks, including the current leader.

With only 4 totals/sides to pick this weekend and the raised stakes, there are bound to be some big winners - so I wouldn't count on Eggzz lead holding up.

Picks are split right down the middle so far, with no side or total garnering more than 56% of action.

[/ QUOTE ]

Watchoo talking bout Willis? Talk about incentive!

Actually I'm a little torn right now. I had scouted the games, researched the line movements and had arrived at my 4 selections (you better believe I won't pull a LastSamurai and wimp out by not selecting anything, thats no way to win a contest), but right before making my selections, I read Performify's Championship post.

No way - his 4 selections (including his best bet) were what I was going with. So how is that going to look? Like I'm trying to prevent someone that is close to me from catching and passing me by riding on his picks.

Crap- Performify - great analysis obviously as you share my thoughts on how both games are going to head. I think I'm going to change up my selections though, as I feel the Sea/Car game is the tougher one to predict. However, if you do go 4-0 this weekend, I will be silently cursing you.

Hey, its just a contest right?

If I haven't mentioned it previously, thanks to both Craig and Doug for putting this on, I have relished my time in the catbird's seat, and here's hoping that it doesn't all go up in smoke this afternoon....

E.

[DougOzzzz]

contest is closed to new selections for this week.

You can now see each contestants' picks by clicking on their name on the standings (http://www.sportsbookpal.com/results.php3) page.

One thing is for sure, Eggzz - I won't be making up any ground on you (well, DougOzzzz won't). Unless by some miracle SEA-CAR ends up with exactly 44 points scored (and SEA doesn't win by 4).

[DougOzzzz]

I just noticed TheRover (who is in 2nd) has all the same picks as Eggzz and myself. Lastsamurai (in 3rd) has the same picks as well.

Craigsucks (in 4th), who is also me, has different picks - but I made my "real" picks with DougOzzzz.

In other words, Eggzz doesn't have to worry about falling behind either the 2nd or 3rd place contestants this week. And if it's a favorites/under week, the top 3 will distance themselves from the competition.

Edit:

3 of us even have the same best bet (DEN). Only lastsamurai went with SEA for his BB instead.

[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]


3 of us even have the same best bet (DEN). Only lastsamurai went with SEA for his BB instead.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, looks the top 3 are going to take a big hit in the early game. The best bet combined with the increased stakes is going to cost the top 2 contestants 540 and 585 respectively - unless Denver pulls out a miracle. Regardless, it can't end up that good for Eggzz/Rover/Samurai as it is impossible for the Broncos to cover with the total staying under.

Also, I am going out for a bit, so the results might not be updated right after the Denver game.

[DougOzzzz]

Well, the leaders took a big hit.

Most contestants either had a very good or a very bad start to the day. Those that liked Denver, also favored the under. Those that took Pit tended towards the over. The Pit/over guys won out, and all of them made a big jump in the standings.

Standing tall atop the leaderboard is MookieBlaylock, taking over the lead despite only being in 9th place before today.

MakeWayHomer sat out the divisional playoffs, but came back strong and is in a very close 2nd.

CraigSucks and Slacker00 are the survivors among the leaders - managing to win best bets on Pit while losing the under to move up one spot to 3rd and 4th place respectively. Eggzz dropped all the way to 12th after leading throughout most of the contest. TheRover's stay in 2nd was not long - he has now lost $ and is in 22nd place.

The top 6 are ALL on Carolina with the points in the late game. Should Seattle pull out the win, we may see some major movement in the standings again. A Carolina cover would be great for the current leaders, and virtually eliminate the top 3 from before today.

Current standings can be seen here (http://www.sportsbookpal.com/results.php3).

[PropPlayer]

DougOzzzz thanks for all your hard work on this contest.

For the later games I picked Carolina and the Over (This was a missclick because I marked down that I took the under but hopefully it works for me).

I Just spent a few minutes figuring out what the standings would be if the game goes: Carolina and the Over. Here are the top 12 if this end up being the outcome.


1. MOOKIEBLAYLOCK: $1800
2. MAKEWAYHOMER: $1780
3. SNTW1: $1440
4. TWOLF2006: $1380
5. RAKEDROP: $820
6. Craig Sucks: $795
7. SLACKER00: $770
8. AARONLONG: $570
9. DOUGISTIRED: $555
10. SPLITTTER: $440
11. DUTCHVG: $410
12. ENDERIII: $410

I thought about doing them for other scenrios then changed my mind lol.

Good luck everyone. I'm routing for Carolina to win this game outright. I placed a total of 7 units on SuperBowl Futures, I'm left with.. 2/3 unit on Carolina +3500 to win the SuperBowl, and 3/4 of a Unit on Pittsburg +2500. (I have nothing on Seattle). I also have a middle/hedge on NFC+10 -110 for 10 units and AFC -3.5 +103 for 10 Units. If Carolina wins this game it will make for an awersome time watching the SuperBowl with a Guranteed Big PayDay /images/graemlins/smile.gif and Possiblility of an Additional 20 Units on the middle.

[Kneel B4 Zod]

is there a way to see other players picks? or just mine? I kinda forget /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[BobJoeJim]

[ QUOTE ]
DougOzzzz thanks for all your hard work on this contest.

For the later games I picked Carolina and the Over (This was a missclick because I marked down that I took the under but hopefully it works for me).

I Just spent a few minutes figuring out what the standings would be if the game goes: Carolina and the Over. Here are the top 12 if this end up being the outcome.


1. MOOKIEBLAYLOCK: $1800
2. MAKEWAYHOMER: $1780
3. SNTW1: $1440
4. TWOLF2006: $1380
5. RAKEDROP: $820
6. Craig Sucks: $795
7. SLACKER00: $770
8. AARONLONG: $570
9. DOUGISTIRED: $555
10. SPLITTTER: $440
11. DUTCHVG: $410
12. ENDERIII: $410

I thought about doing them for other scenrios then changed my mind lol.


[/ QUOTE ]
So... now that this looks like it was a waste of time, anyone want to start figuring it out for if Seattle wins with the over? Or if Seattle wins with the under?

/images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]
is there a way to see other players picks? or just mine? I kinda forget /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

go to the results page and click on the contestant.

I am impressed with Rakedrop though - seems like it would take a long time to calculate the standings by hand.

[PropPlayer]

I'll do it. Going to take a little while, but no one start cuz I dont want to do all that clicking and math for nothing lol.

[BobJoeJim]

I actually just started doing it too, you can do it if you'd prefer though.

[PropPlayer]

I'm done but double checking the numbers will post it in 5 min.

[PropPlayer]

If Seattle and the over the results by my calculations will be.

1. DUTCHVG: $1355
2. AARONLONG: $1200
3. DOUGISTIRED: $1200
4. MOOKIEBLAYLOCK: $1185
5. MAKEWAYHOMER: $1150
6. TWOLF2006: $765
7. SNTW1: $518
8. SPLITTTER: $440
9. PERFORMIFY: $395
10. LASTSAMURAI: $305
11. SOONERS83: $230
12. EGGZZ: $220
13. NPKAUFFMAN: $215
14. RAKEDROP: $205
15. SLACKER00: $167
16. CRAIGSUCKS: $165

If it ends up being a 3-4 pt game there could be some large changes. The line on the game ranges from 3.5-4.5.

[BobJoeJim]

[ QUOTE ]
If Seattle and the over the results by my calculations will be.

1. DUTCHVG: $1355
2. AARONLONG: $1200
3. DOUGISTIRED: $1200
4. MOOKIEBLAYLOCK: $1185
5. MAKEWAYHOMER: $1150
6. TWOLF2006: $765
7. SNTW1: $518
8. SPLITTTER: $440
9. PERFORMIFY: $395
10. LASTSAMURAI: $305
11. SOONERS83: $230
12. EGGZZ: $220
13. NPKAUFFMAN: $215
14. RAKEDROP: $205
15. SLACKER00: $167
16. CRAIGSUCKS: $165

If it ends up being a 3-4 pt game there could be some large changes. The line on the game ranges from 3.5-4.5.

[/ QUOTE ]
I got the same, are you done with Seattle/Under too?

[PropPlayer]

Also I double checked the Seattle/Over Picks this should be exact. (I rounded up the couple potentials that would end in 50 cents).
My other post, the Panthers/Over potential standings, was not double checked. I believe I got all the Best Bets but could have missed one or two in calculating.

[DougOzzzz]

Hey guys - was testing out a query and accidently cleared all the results values. The results table should be updating as I speak now (might take 5 minutes to finish).

[PropPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]

I am impressed with Rakedrop though - seems like it would take a long time to calculate the standings by hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks man, but I'm more impressed with your technology than me calculating potential standings /images/graemlins/smile.gif.
Running numbers etc is second nature to me, I've been doing Internet Marketing since 1996 and back then we did not have all the advanced tools we have now to calculate the effectiveness of each add. I needed to do lots of manual calculations and spread sheet formulas on a daily basis.

[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]
Hey guys - was testing out a query and accidently cleared all the results values. The results table should be updating as I speak now (might take 5 minutes to finish).

[/ QUOTE ]

Crap... I gotta do it over again, since I forgot that I changed the routine with the increased payouts this week.

[PropPlayer]

[/ QUOTE ]
I got the same, are you done with Seattle/Under too?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not going to calculate any further.. The results will be out soon enough if the game goes under etc. Feel free to do it if your bored lol, I'm not going to bother.

[BobJoeJim]

Well, these aren't double checked, but here's what I see the top 15 if Seattle wins and keeps it under:

For SEA/Under I have:
1. LASTSAMURAI $935
2. EGGZZ $850
3. SLACKER00 $797
4. CRAIGSUCKS $795
5. DUTCHVG $725
6. THEROVER $585
7. AARONLONG $570
7. DOUGISTIRED $570
9. MOOKIEBLAYLOCK $555
10. MAKEWAYHOMER $535
11. SPLITTER $440
12. ENDERIII $290
13. BOBJOEJIM $275
14. SOONERS83 $230
15. NPKAUFFMAN $215

[PropPlayer]

Lol.. Good job.
Wouldn’t it be ironic if Carolina scored 10 or 14 in the 2nd half and shuts out Seattle?

[DougOzzzz]

Did you happen to save the standings after the Pit/Den game? Just want to check to make sure I updated them correctly this time.

[PropPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, these aren't double checked, but here's what I see the top 15 if Seattle wins and keeps it under:

For SEA/Under I have:
1. LASTSAMURAI $935
2. EGGZZ $850
3. SLACKER00 $797
4. CRAIGSUCKS $795
5. DUTCHVG $725
6. THEROVER $585
7. AARONLONG $570
7. DOUGISTIRED $570
9. MOOKIEBLAYLOCK $555
10. MAKEWAYHOMER $535
11. SPLITTER $440
12. ENDERIII $290
13. BOBJOEJIM $275
14. SOONERS83 $230
15. NPKAUFFMAN $215

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll be out of any hope at a miracle 4th place if this happens, but actually hope it does at it would make the last game of the contest interesting with 15 people in some sort of contention.

[DougOzzzz]

wow.. how strange it would be if the leader ends up with less than 1K after this week (SB alone will have about 1100 to win 1000 total).

[PropPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
Did you happen to save the standings after the Pit/Den game? Just want to check to make sure I updated them correctly this time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nope sorry.. Just closed the unsaved spread sheet.

[BobJoeJim]

[ QUOTE ]
Did you happen to save the standings after the Pit/Den game? Just want to check to make sure I updated them correctly this time.

[/ QUOTE ]
I've still got 'em, I'll check now.

EDIT: The top 20 (everyone who isn't negative) are the same as they were. I didn't check the rest, but I figure they should be good too.

[DougOzzzz]

I just checked the numbers you guys came up with. Very close -

Rakedrop was perfect,
BobJoeJimJackJohnJames gave $15 extra to MakeWayHomer and $45 extra to Enderii.

[Kneel B4 Zod]

garbage time TD for the over! woo-hoo!

[DougOzzzz]

what's your contest username?

[TheRover]

ugh, what a disaster.

[Kneel B4 Zod]

[ QUOTE ]
what's your contest username?

[/ QUOTE ]

makewayhomer

[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]


1. DUTCHVG: $1355
2. AARONLONG: $1200
3. DOUGISTIRED: $1200
4. MOOKIEBLAYLOCK: $1185
5. MAKEWAYHOMER: $1150
6. TWOLF2006: $765
7. SNTW1: $518
8. SPLITTTER: $440
9. PERFORMIFY: $395
10. LASTSAMURAI: $305
11. SOONERS83: $230
12. EGGZZ: $220
13. NPKAUFFMAN: $215
14. RAKEDROP: $205
15. SLACKER00: $167
16. CRAIGSUCKS: $165



[/ QUOTE ]

Those are the current standings.

You can now make SB selections. However, there is a bug that I am working on that is causing some problems on the standings and individual picks pages. While the "Money" column is correct, the W-L record has some errors, and the individual picks pages are screwed up somehow.

This is basically because I was an idiot and took a shortcut, and did not anticipate the LV Rotation # being the same for any game during the contest. I'll work on it, maybe tonight, maybe tomorrow.

For now, only pay attention to the Money column on the results page. We've got 2 weeks to the SB, but if you like the lines now you might as well make your picks.

This is the "game theory" portion of the contest. Those in contention need to think about how others are going to pick as well as themselves. Anyone mimicking DutchVg's (or, for that matter, any contestant ahead of you in the standings) picks has NO chance to win.

[PropPlayer]

Do these lines update in real time or close to it?

[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]
Do these lines update in real time or close to it?

[/ QUOTE ]

They should update every minute. Occasionally the program that retrieves the lines and sends them to the DB crashes though, and if I'm not here, the lines may be static for a while.

[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]
Do these lines update in real time or close to it?

[/ QUOTE ]

By the way, as mentioned in the rules - the lines may not exactly match what you see at Bowman's. These are the "sharp" lines, currently I see a line of 4 with SEA -105 and Pit -115 when I visit Bowman's, but it changes to 4 flat when I log in.

[BobJoeJim]

[ QUOTE ]
I just checked the numbers you guys came up with. Very close -

Rakedrop was perfect,
BobJoeJimJackJohnJames gave $15 extra to MakeWayHomer and $45 extra to Enderii.

[/ QUOTE ]
Drat, that's what I get for not double checking. And thanks for the extra names, but my real name still isn't in there /images/graemlins/wink.gif

Of course the part that really bothers me is that lousy garbage time TD that kept my list from being the actual standings, since it would have kept me in contention /images/graemlins/frown.gif

I suppose technically if EVERYONE in front of me (all 40 some odd people) picks different that me on both the spread AND the over/under, then I could still mathematically finish second... You aren't all picking the same team by any chance are you? Oh well, no prize for me, but it was an awesome contest all the same, thanks again Doug.

[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]


I suppose technically if EVERYONE in front of me (all 40 some odd people) picks different that me on both the spread AND the over/under, then I could still mathematically finish second...

[/ QUOTE ]

You might be in luck. We had only 31 people submit picks this week, and that number is bound to drop this week as most people realize that they have very little chance.

Of course, if anyone ranked 2nd to 9th doesn't submit picks at all, you have no chance of catching them.

[BobJoeJim]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


I suppose technically if EVERYONE in front of me (all 40 some odd people) picks different that me on both the spread AND the over/under, then I could still mathematically finish second...

[/ QUOTE ]

You might be in luck. We had only 31 people submit picks this week, and that number is bound to drop this week as most people realize that they have very little chance.

Of course, if anyone ranked 2nd to 9th doesn't submit picks at all, you have no chance of catching them.

[/ QUOTE ]
Lol yeah, I actually need people to MISS their picks, while I hit my own, to pass anyone near the top. If people don't pick then I'm officially screwed.

Speaking of which, I wonder to what extent it could be good game theory strategy for someone in the top 5 to not make any picks? Food for thought...

[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


I suppose technically if EVERYONE in front of me (all 40 some odd people) picks different that me on both the spread AND the over/under, then I could still mathematically finish second...

[/ QUOTE ]

You might be in luck. We had only 31 people submit picks this week, and that number is bound to drop this week as most people realize that they have very little chance.

Of course, if anyone ranked 2nd to 9th doesn't submit picks at all, you have no chance of catching them.

[/ QUOTE ]
Lol yeah, I actually need people to MISS their picks, while I hit my own, to pass anyone near the top. If people don't pick then I'm officially screwed.

Speaking of which, I wonder to what extent it could be good game theory strategy for someone in the top 5 to not make any picks? Food for thought...

[/ QUOTE ]

Probably not a good idea. There is only 1 side/total left to pick and a total of 1000 at stake. All contestants in 2nd through 9th place could pass DutchVg if they pick both correctly. On average, 2 of them will pass him - so the median result should be a 3rd place finish ($25). If he picks, he has a 25% chance of getting both picks right and automatically taking 1st. He also has a 25% chance of getting the best bet correct and the other bet wrong - still gaining a little money.

The odds of him finishing 1st without making any picks are about 10%.

For those behind DutchVg, the expected outcome is worse without making any picks. Every contestant up to 14th place has a chance of passing the top 4, while 5th place can be passed by 15th or 16th place.

Anyway, I could do a more detailed analysis but I am 99% sure the best approach from an EV perspective is to make your picks this week.

[DougOzzzz]

Update -
the standings (http://www.sportsbookpal.com/results.php3) page is fixed, as well as the individual results pages.

All I had to do to fix the problem was change one record in the database.

[20Five]

72 20FIVE 7 13 0 0 -2092

owned! /images/graemlins/grin.gif

this is why ive bet about 5 nfl games all year lol

[DougOzzzz]

I wrote a quick sim to analyze this problem.

Turns out, DutchVg would be slightly better off NOT to make picks this week (he wins less often, but comes in 2nd and 3rd more often).

All other contestants are in better shape if they make their picks.

What do you think, should I require SB picks in order to qualify for a prize?

Edit:

There was a bug in the sim, as I suspected once I thought the results through. Failure to make selections this week should cost DutchVg about $17 in EV.

Edit again:

Failed to take into account the fact that DougIsTired is ineligible for prizes.

This causes DutchVg's EV to rise significantly if he does not participate (mainly, because DougIsTired is one of the two contestants who can pass him without a perfect card). However, he is still throwing away 10 bucks if he does so.

Also, if Dutch doesn't make any picks, those that are 10th place or worse lose over half their expectation.

[PropPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
72 20FIVE 7 13 0 0 -2092

owned! /images/graemlins/grin.gif

this is why ive bet about 5 nfl games all year lol

[/ QUOTE ]

What will it take to get you to do an NFL pics thread next season? /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Fraubump]

Is there any way to change your picks? When I try to I am told that my picks for the week have already been made. I forgot how the page works and entered my name and password without seeing the picks part of the screen and so my picks were entered as the default picks for the week, which is not the picks I would have made. I am currently in strong contention.

[DougOzzzz]

This seems to be a common problem. Maybe I will need to implement a confirmation screen for the next contest(s).

I took a guess on your UserID, but unless your definition of "strong contention" means a 0% chance of winning a prize, then I should be right. You should be able to submit new picks.

[eggzz]

[ QUOTE ]
What do you think, should I require SB picks in order to qualify for a prize?


[/ QUOTE ]

Actually I would prefer that you adjust the over under on the Seattle/Carolina game to 49 so that I would be in second place because that was a BULLSH&T way to end a playoff game, two touchdowns in one minute screwing up a well handicapped under.

God I hate seeing things like that happen when I'm on the wrong side. What a gift to those that played the over.

So Doug is that possible?

LOL - good luck to those fighting for the $

[Performify]

Dutch is a friend of mine (and a regular in my homegames) and he's planning on making picks this week. More so for bragging rights that he can beat me, more than just for the prize pool. We've got a side wager that, *ahem* slightly exceeds the prize pool to begin with.

So if its extra work, i wouldn't worry about coding it so that people have to make the picks.

[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]


So Doug is that possible?

[/ QUOTE ]

I keep trying to make similar arguments to sportsbooks when I lose bets like that, but so far haven't had any success.

I wanted the under there too - not just because both of my entries had the under, but because the contest would have been more interesting (though, still plenty of people in it).

Your chances of winning are tiny, but if you win both your SB selections you still have a roughly 50% chance to finish in the top 4.

[PropPlayer]

I noticed something really interesting. There were 4 people who went 10-10 and there is over a $1080 difference in the cash. This is a really small sample size but would be very curious to see this with a large sample data. Does anyone know of any similar contests like this where I can view results?
For people who went 10-10 results were:
+205
-350
-670
-875

[DougOzzzz]

As the guy with the 10-10 record who still managed to lose $875, it is pretty easy to see why.

I went 1-3 last week, with the stakes raised to $300, and I lost all 3 of my best bets.

You, on the other hand (as the 10-10 guy up 205), won 3 out of 4 last week (including your best bet), and split your previous 2 best bets. The juice paid on losses (or, wins?) also makes up some of the difference but it is comparatively small.

[PropPlayer]

I was half asleep when looking at stats and posting. I forgot all about the raised stakes . I was only thinking in terms of best bet. It’s not so interesting anymore lol

[DougOzzzz]

Hi guys - Another reminder. With the SB 24 hours away we still have not received picks from several players in contention. Let me remind you that if you are in 3rd place or worse now, you will almost definitely NOT win a prize without gaining some $ this weekend.

Total is down to 46.5 and the spread is still 4, with equal juice on both sides.

[DougOzzzz]

The contest closes in about an hour. Final warning - good luck to those who entered.

[DougOzzzz]

Under and Pittsburgh are both looking good right now.

2nd place contestant AaronLong has both. The next highest contestant with both is RakeDrop (in 14th), but I believe he can only finish in 4th place, with current leader DutchVg and 5th place MakeWayHomer taking 2nd and 3rd.

[Kneel B4 Zod]

[ QUOTE ]
Under and Pittsburgh are both looking good right now.

2nd place contestant AaronLong has both. The next highest contestant with both is RakeDrop (in 14th), but I believe he can only finish in 4th place, with current leader DutchVg and 5th place MakeWayHomer taking 2nd and 3rd.

[/ QUOTE ]

are these results official?

[PropPlayer]

The results page doesn't seem right? Performity won $600 on his best bet which shows as Seattle +4?

[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]
The results page doesn't seem right? Performity won $600 on his best bet which shows as Seattle +4?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yikes, I thought the 1 minute window when the results were screwed up would go unnoticed.

[PropPlayer]

hmm looks like people who took seattle all got credit for a win on the standings page? At least the couple I checked did.

[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]
hmm looks like people who took seattle all got credit for a win on the standings page? At least the couple I checked did.

[/ QUOTE ]

check again?

[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
hmm looks like people who took seattle all got credit for a win on the standings page? At least the couple I checked did.

[/ QUOTE ]

check again?

[/ QUOTE ]

It was a mistake on my part.

When I was entering the game results I entered 11 and -11 on the TOTALS, and 31 each on the sides (meaning, each team won the game by 31 points). I switched them and the results should be fixed.

As expected, the "in the money" finishers are:
1. AaronLong 2200
2. DutchVg 1535
3. MakeWayHomer 1310
4. RakeDrop 1205

Thanks to everyone for entering the contest and congratulations to the winners. We will be contacting them shortly.

Final standings can be seen here (http://www.sportsbookpal.com/results.php3)

[Easy E]

I didn't participate, but nice contest for the group, <font color="green">craig</font>. I may look at doing this next year.

[PropPlayer]

Awesome guys, Thanks for the great contest! I just netted 18.5 units plus a free book on this game /images/graemlins/smile.gif. Also thanks to everyone who posted this NFL season, It finished ultra stong for me.

[craig]

[ QUOTE ]
I didn't participate, but nice contest for the group, <font color="green">craig</font>. I may look at doing this next year.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks Easy, but without Doug the contest, in fact the entire site, really wouldn't have been possible. The databases, the line converter, and the contest are all thanks to DougOzzzz. I know nothing about programming or anything like that. If I would have designed the contest you would have had to call me to make your picks and I would have put the picks in Excel.

We also have a great designer named Craig (not me) who designed the entire site who deserves much thanks as well.

Anyways, I appreciate the nice contest appreciation a lot Easy, but I definitely don't deserve much of the credit.

craig

[Easy E]

Before I get struck by lightning bolts from the Terrible Ozzzzz.... /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

Nicely done.

[DougOzzzz]

not to mention, you suck at making picks. I noticed that your picks, made under DougIsTired, managed to blow a lead of 50 spots in the standings and finish 1 spot below me.

/images/graemlins/wink.gif