50NL AA; raised on flop

[Lego05]

Villian is 23.33/12.5/1.42 over 120 hands.

What's the play here?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($50)
CO ($94.85)
Button ($49.45)
SB ($30.60)
BB ($50)
UTG ($55.80)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2</font>, CO calls $2, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>.

Flop: ($4.75) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $3.25</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $13</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero ???

[cbloom]

Shove

[ciro bonano]

Is this such a standard shove?

Is the reasoning he is likely to have some kind of draw, ranging from a single 8 to a good combo draw so we want to push? Or are you thinking that with a made hand like T8 he's probably not playing this so fast?

[Lego05]

[ QUOTE ]
Is this such a standard shove?

Is the reasoning he is likely to have some kind of draw, ranging from a single 8 to a good combo draw so we want to push? Or are you thinking that with a made hand like T8 he's probably not playing this so fast?

[/ QUOTE ]

First reason.

A lot of the hands I post are ones like this. Either I just can't figure out quite which situation to do what in or variance really just has been eating me in these situations:

Here I feel this is almost definitely either a set or a combo draw. Somewhat chance of T8. Also somewhat chance of TT-QQ (much better chance than T8 I'd say). He reraises KK, good chance of QQ and maybe even JJ.


So that's what I was thinking here.

[SlightlyMad]

I don't know ... what are *your* stats in this situation? If you are the typical 23/20 player we see on 2+2, your logic might be sound.

However, if you are even moderately less aggressive, you're behind with AA here. 98 isn't raising this high with an AF of 1.4 (I'm a bit of a weak-tight nit myself, that's why I read these forums! ;-] ) It feels like his two pair/set doesn't want *your* overpair to catch up. I can't see him getting frisky without knowing he can beat an overpair.

[RobAtticus]

I think a shove here is probably fine, considering the villian could be trying something with 9-8 putting the OP on AK/AQ. He has a solid draw and a pair, but really does not want to see any more diamonds or high cards come so he might be trying to take the pot down when he's got the best of it.

I also agree that this could very easily be KK/QQ as well.

[ontiltsoon]

I put this into PokerStove hope I did it OK.

Hand 0: 49.670% 48.52% 01.16% { AcAh }
Hand 1: 50.330% 49.17% 01.16%{ QQ-66, T8s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 98o, 87o, 76o }

I didn't include T8o as I don't think villain is calling a raise with that.
An I didn't include AA or KK as he would normaly Reraise with it.

Well, before I put it into PokerStove I thought it was a fold, Baluga Theorem and all that, but noe I think you have to shove.

Maybe the calculations are not correct if so please tell me how to do them!! Maybe I should have specified suits in the suited connectors holdings

Thanks

[RobAtticus]

Is T8o really much less likely than 76o? Why not not include 97s? That's possible if you're going to give him T8s, 98s, and 76s.

[ontiltsoon]

I think it's quite less likely he has T8o to 76o but maybe you are right 76o is maybe a bit too much...

[Ace0fSpades]

How often are you cbetting flops in general and against this specific villain? This plays a huge role in what kind of play villain is making here. If you tend to cbet a lot against this specific villain, his raising range could drop to as low as a naked top pair or second pair. I think I would likely shove this spot if you have been playing flops aggressively because this raise looks like it is trying to get a fold more than anything.