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View Full Version : two pair on a nasty board. please analyze

ryeback
04-14-2007, 04:40 PM
Hey fellas,

Please analyze play on all streets. Villian was 66/36/1.5 over 88 hands. Thanks for your input.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

UTG ($115.75)
MP ($69.75)
CO ($97)
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($111.90)</font>
SB ($99)
<font color="#C00000">BB ($111.60)</font>

Preflop: Hero is Button with 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $2</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls $2, Hero calls $2, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls $1.

Flop: ($8.50) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $11</font>, CO folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $26</font>, BB calls $26, UTG folds.

Turn: ($71.50) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
kabum31: checks
<font color="red"> Ryeback24: bets $36</font>
kabum31: raises $47.60 to $83.60 and is all-in
<font color="red"> Ryeback24: ?</font>
Acein8ter
04-14-2007, 04:56 PM
Hmm, could the BB hit the nuts w/that 6 dropping??? If he held 89s, would he call $26 with a gutshot? Would he call the $26 w/34 for an OESD?

Maybe he has 76 and he his 2 pair?

You have 4 outs to a FH. Tough one...
kolotoure
04-14-2007, 05:01 PM
I guess 34/set would make sense
cb4mvp
04-14-2007, 05:04 PM
I would fold this preflop. Possible villain has something like a set, but more likely it's 86 or 87, I think. I would have raised to more like $30-38 on the flop with three-way action, and I think if you bet the turn here, you have to call the $47 more for sure, getting something like 4-1 on your money. If you can work out his range to a set or 85+, your equity is 60-40 against his range here, so it's an easy call.

Board: 7d 5h 2s 6h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 60.813% 60.81% 00.00% 883 0.00 { 7s5s }
Hand 1: 39.187% 39.19% 00.00% 569 0.00 { 77, 55, 22, 85s+, 85o+ }


Any comments?
Isura
04-14-2007, 05:05 PM
Folding is so bad. He can easily have 99+ and be doing a stack-a-donk line.
kolotoure
04-14-2007, 05:09 PM
I think QQ+ 3-bets preflop so that leaves 99-JJ
agoldenbear
04-14-2007, 05:09 PM
i could see 99-JJ, but i would think any decent player is going to reraise from the BB with such a hand when facing a UTG min raise. I see 22 as the most likely hand here. Maybe 66, but that seems less likely based on the flop action. obv he could have 77 or 55, but your hand makes that far less probable. 76 is also a possibility, but will he really hang on to that on the flop facing an UTG overbet and a sizeable raise?

I highly doubt BB is cold calling your flop raise with 89, and as for the double gutter with 34, it's hard to give him credit for that having called a pf raise and a $26 flop bet.

So i'm saying ducks.
cb4mvp
04-14-2007, 05:12 PM
Why isn't BB calling with 89, getting 8-1 on his money? I don't think we can squarely put him on that, but I think he makes this call with 86+ (as OP called with 75s, not totally unreasonable to assume), and obviously any of the aforementioned PP. I just think the villain probably has a fairly wide range here, and it's hard to nail him down to exactly a set or exactly 89.
jmgambler
04-14-2007, 05:18 PM
What happened to the conversion?......... I'm confused.

First off I would fold PF, Had CO raised I might have called. these suited gappers tend to kill me.

Played like a set or 43s ......... fold, I think you are toast here 99% of times you are only beating ...... erm nothing... that he would call $26 on the flop with
Isura
04-14-2007, 05:20 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I think QQ+ 3-bets preflop so that leaves 99-JJ

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah. I thought utg was the villain. That makes it much closer. But I can never fold two pair for 100bb /images/graemlins/grin.gif
jmgambler
04-14-2007, 05:23 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Folding is so bad. He can easily have 99+ and be doing a stack-a-donk line.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont get why folding is so bad here? what is Hero beating that villian would call a flop bet of $26 and NOW check raises the river with? .. I put him on a set or 34s ... though a set I like more probably 22