Stacking off w/ AK

[Stoneflip]

villian is 57/14 after 14 hands /images/graemlins/confused.gif


is this an easy fold?

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Hold'em Cash Game
$0.25/$0.50 Blinds
6 Players
LegoPoker HH Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh/)

SB: $22.65
BB: $16.50
villian (UTG): $54.95
MP: $53.25
CO: $21.45
<font color="black">Stoneflip (BTN): $43.45</font>

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Stoneflip is dealt K/images/graemlins/heart.gif A/images/graemlins/spade.gif (6 Players)
villian calls $0.50, MP folds, CO folds, Stoneflip raises to $2.25, SB folds, BB folds, villian calls $1.75

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($5.25) Ahttp://legopoker.com/hh/images/club.gif 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 Players)
villian bets $3, Stoneflip raises to $14.25, villian raises all-in to $52.70

[Chomp]

This is an absolutely horrible spot.

What I wonder is if we fold this 100% of the time in our poker careers (in a vacuum and assuming villains don't know we do this) how much value are we really giving up in the long run? I'd love to see some quantitative discussion on this.

I suspect the answer is not a huge amount, although I'm more than willing to accept that I am totally wrong on that.

So here in a forum, I say fold. But at the table in the heat of battle, I call probably 60%+ of the time and I think that's a leak.

[Stoneflip]

To me, villian's range is huge, he could be sittin on 2 pair or a set but he could be donking it up with AQ AJ or A10. Improving profitability on marginal hands like this would be great for my winrate.

[Stoneflip]

Maybe I should float the flop bet to get more info because I am definitely not comfortable calling this 3bet.????

[thac]

I think since you have the Ace of spades, you can just call this flop bet and give him more room to bluff his hand.. he can get away from weaker aces when you raise, but if you just call, he'll fire again on the turn and you can call/raise/fold depending on your read of him.

[Stoneflip]

Yeah sometimes I get too heavy into that "raise or fold" TAG mentality

[thac]

I think it's a really thin raise because he may shove/fold KJ/images/graemlins/spade.gif or some hand like that, but also in his range are two pair and sets, so when he 3-bet shoves, it's really tough to tell where you're at and you're playing a big pot in the dark.

[deleteduser]

[ QUOTE ]
I think since you have the Ace of spades, you can just call this flop bet and give him more room to bluff his hand.. he can get away from weaker aces when you raise, but if you just call, he'll fire again on the turn and you can call/raise/fold depending on your read of him.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree I dont think you want to be building such a large pot with only TPTK, and a backdoor to the nut flush. 15 hands really isnt enough hands to make a solid read off someones stats.

As played I think im folding because, you have no read, and hes showing a lot of agression here. Unless you have a table image of comming over the top with draws or a very loose image im folding.

[Stoneflip]

so raise to $7 on the flop???

[jmgambler]

Ugh.........

I probably fold, you are only beating a weaker A, and you are behind to A8/A5 88/55 all of which are quite possible

[thac]

If he bets the turn, raise to around 2.5x his bet if you decide to raise.. although I wouldn't raise the turn often either. Let the idiot keep bluffing, he usually will. Ya know?

[Stoneflip]

yeah, thanks for all the help everyone. /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[thac]

Yep, np, just don't move up any time soon /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Stoneflip]

I was thinking bout it til i started running worse than a Michael Jackson platinum album. So you're safe 4 now. By the time I move up you will probably be a nl200 zen master.