25NL: KK put to the test 200bb deep

[jimpo]

Bodog No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (5 handed) Hand History converter (http://www.learnhowtoplaypokerfree.com/convert/convert.cgi) Courtesy of PokerZion.com (http://PokerZion.com)

SB ($55.60)
BB ($15.43)
UTG ($62.76)
MP ($16.05)
Hero ($58.05)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls $0.25, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $1.2</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to $2.15</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $9.2</font>, SB calls $5.85.

Flop: ($17.70) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $12</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to $24</font>, Hero ...?

Villain is 54/5/3, donkish, after 40 hands or so. I have been raising preflop more and betting bigger (=non-minbets) than the rest of the table. He minraised preflop instantly, though for a while when I 4bet, and minraised on the flop quite fast.

Also how's the rest of the hand?

[corsakh]

Basically you have two ways:

1) Push.
2) Call. Check/push the turn unless a diamond comes.

[Pirelli]

Very well played with the large PF raise. Make the flop bet a little bigger, i think $15 looks good. I think a push is good against a 54/5/3 moron.

[poon]

I dont like folding here so i push flop for the last ~35$ u have left, witch is only 10$ over his min raise.

[TheRenaissance]

Easy push.

[jimpo]

So considering folding is weak?

Since his preflop raise is 5, I put him on JJ+,AK preflop. After flop check-raise I think his range is JJ+ and I am ahead only QQ...plus I think he likely check-raises this way more often with JJ,KK,AA than he does with QQ, which weights his range more towards the hands I am behind to.

Of course pot offers something like 1:2 which are very very good odds. Now Pokerstove tells me that given his range and assuming he is calling the push with all hands given his great odds it seems like a fold is bad (but not massively bad):

Board: Jd 3h 2d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 41.108% 38.13% 02.98% 6039 472.50 { KcKs }
Hand 1: 58.892% 55.91% 02.98% 8856 472.50 { JJ+ }

I really hated this spot and ended up folding /images/graemlins/frown.gif Please explain how this is an "easy push", where does my logic go wrong since my pokerstovving tells it is quite close?

[MyQuil]

[ QUOTE ]
Easy push.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know how you can say it's an easy push. The guy must know you're on a big pair with the pre-flop reraise and then the big flop bet, so he must think he has you beat unless he's playing like a retard. I think A A or J J are the most likely holdings here.

Maybe the pot odds do validate a call here but it would be marginal either way, depending on what range you put him on, but even still I'd probably be feeling I was beat so I think a fold is perfectly reasonable. I think the flop bet was fine too, betting $15 instead of $12 would have made no difference either way and you saved $3 seeing as you folded.

[TheRenaissance]

[ QUOTE ]
So considering folding is weak?

Since his preflop raise is 5, I put him on JJ+,AK preflop. After flop check-raise I think his range is JJ+ and I am ahead only QQ...plus I think he likely check-raises this way more often with JJ,KK,AA than he does with QQ, which weights his range more towards the hands I am behind to.

Of course pot offers something like 1:2 which are very very good odds. Now Pokerstove tells me that given his range and assuming he is calling the push with all hands given his great odds it seems like a fold is bad (but not massively bad):

Board: Jd 3h 2d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 41.108% 38.13% 02.98% 6039 472.50 { KcKs }
Hand 1: 58.892% 55.91% 02.98% 8856 472.50 { JJ+ }

I really hated this spot and ended up folding /images/graemlins/frown.gif Please explain how this is an "easy push", where does my logic go wrong since my pokerstovving tells it is quite close?

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont think he has AA as much as he has JJ-QQ given preflop. Also he seems donkish enough to do this with AK, from time to time. And certainly A/images/graemlins/diamond.gifK/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (which is not donkish), which you are flipping with.

I think your real equity is closer to a flip.

[TheRenaissance]

[ QUOTE ]
unless he's playing like a retard

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Villain is 54/5/3, donkish

[/ QUOTE ]

[jimpo]

Updated pot odds: I have 34.4 behind on the flop. Final pot size if both are all-in would be 110.5. That makes 34.4:(110.5-34.4) = 1:2.21, so a bit better than 1:2.

My pokerstove results were 41:59 which is 1:1.44 so it is in fact not even close at all. Assuming I did not make a mistake in my calculations.

Of course I have no realistic way of doing these calculations in my head when playing....but it would seem a push is clearly good even assuming his range is JJ+?

[Hellmouth]

Most of the people who think this is an easy push also don't think that the hand range you picked is realistic.

I know that villain may be running hot but even over 50 hands a 54%VPIP is high. I think that this is two suited Broadways as much as it is the hand range you picked (JJ+ and AK).

I think at this level with a strong read that villain is TAG then the pf action makes this a fold. Mostly I expect to see top pair from villain when I push this one.

Greg

[jimpo]

[ QUOTE ]
Most of the people who think this is an easy push also don't think that the hand range you picked is realistic.

I know that villain may be running hot but even over 50 hands a 54%VPIP is high. I think that this is two suited Broadways as much as it is the hand range you picked (JJ+ and AK).

[/ QUOTE ]

54% VPIP is high, but 5% PF raise is very low, and villain insta-min-3bet. I can't see how he can have two suited broadways here.

[TheRenaissance]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Most of the people who think this is an easy push also don't think that the hand range you picked is realistic.

I know that villain may be running hot but even over 50 hands a 54%VPIP is high. I think that this is two suited Broadways as much as it is the hand range you picked (JJ+ and AK).

[/ QUOTE ]

54% VPIP is high, but 5% PF raise is very low, and villain insta-min-3bet. I can't see how he can have two suited broadways here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not ANY two, but AK/images/graemlins/diamond.gif is quite likely I think.

[jimpo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Most of the people who think this is an easy push also don't think that the hand range you picked is realistic.

I know that villain may be running hot but even over 50 hands a 54%VPIP is high. I think that this is two suited Broadways as much as it is the hand range you picked (JJ+ and AK).

[/ QUOTE ]

54% VPIP is high, but 5% PF raise is very low, and villain insta-min-3bet. I can't see how he can have two suited broadways here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not ANY two, but AK/images/graemlins/diamond.gif is quite likely I think.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I agree that AK/images/graemlins/diamond.gif can be part of his range.

Whoah, am I doing this right? Adding that to his range does not change my equity much at all:

Board: Jd 3h 2d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 41.756% 38.95% 02.81% 6555 472.50 { KcKs }
Hand 1: 58.244% 55.44% 02.81% 9330 472.50 { JJ+, AdKd }

EDIT: quite close still with a couple of additional flush draw hands

Hand 0: 42.405% 39.75% 02.65% 7084 472.50 { KcKs }
Hand 1: 57.595% 54.94% 02.65% 9791 472.50 { JJ+, AdKd, AdQd, AdJd }

[TheRenaissance]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Most of the people who think this is an easy push also don't think that the hand range you picked is realistic.

I know that villain may be running hot but even over 50 hands a 54%VPIP is high. I think that this is two suited Broadways as much as it is the hand range you picked (JJ+ and AK).

[/ QUOTE ]

54% VPIP is high, but 5% PF raise is very low, and villain insta-min-3bet. I can't see how he can have two suited broadways here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not ANY two, but AK/images/graemlins/diamond.gif is quite likely I think.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I agree that AK/images/graemlins/diamond.gif can be part of his range.

Whoah, am I doing this right? Adding that to his range does not change my equity much at all:

Board: Jd 3h 2d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 41.756% 38.95% 02.81% 6555 472.50 { KcKs }
Hand 1: 58.244% 55.44% 02.81% 9330 472.50 { JJ+, AdKd }

[/ QUOTE ]

No, but as I said, I think he has QQ/JJ more than AA, which should give you a few more percentages. As it turns out, though, with the pot odds you are getting, it is not really any doubt a push is +ev.

[jimpo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Most of the people who think this is an easy push also don't think that the hand range you picked is realistic.

I know that villain may be running hot but even over 50 hands a 54%VPIP is high. I think that this is two suited Broadways as much as it is the hand range you picked (JJ+ and AK).

[/ QUOTE ]

54% VPIP is high, but 5% PF raise is very low, and villain insta-min-3bet. I can't see how he can have two suited broadways here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not ANY two, but AK/images/graemlins/diamond.gif is quite likely I think.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I agree that AK/images/graemlins/diamond.gif can be part of his range.

Whoah, am I doing this right? Adding that to his range does not change my equity much at all:

Board: Jd 3h 2d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 41.756% 38.95% 02.81% 6555 472.50 { KcKs }
Hand 1: 58.244% 55.44% 02.81% 9330 472.50 { JJ+, AdKd }

[/ QUOTE ]

No, but as I said, I think he has QQ/JJ more than AA, which should give you a few more percentages. As it turns out, though, with the pot odds you are getting, it is not really any doubt a push is +ev.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you have any special method for calculating the pot odds "live" when two people are committed to the pot with different portions of their stack...? I found it pretty clumsy even with pen and paper and no time constraints.

[TheRenaissance]

No, I just make quick guesstimates.

[Hellmouth]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Most of the people who think this is an easy push also don't think that the hand range you picked is realistic.

I know that villain may be running hot but even over 50 hands a 54%VPIP is high. I think that this is two suited Broadways as much as it is the hand range you picked (JJ+ and AK).

[/ QUOTE ]

54% VPIP is high, but 5% PF raise is very low, and villain insta-min-3bet. I can't see how he can have two suited broadways here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok I did miss the pfr at 5%. Very low. Maybe not significant.

Just to show the 3bet pf though this hand just transpired in the last 2 minutes

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1.1/$1.1
5 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
UTG: $75
CO: $55
hero: $30
SB: $75
BB: $25

Pre-flop: (5 players) hero is Button with J/images/graemlins/spade.gif Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif
UTG calls, CO calls, <font color="#cc0000">hero raises to $50</font>, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises all-in $75</font>, BB folds, <font color="#cc0000">UTG calls all-in $50</font>, CO calls, hero folds.

Flop: 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8/images/graemlins/club.gif ($202.2, 1 player + 2 all-in - Main pot: $201.1, Sidepot 1: $1.1)


Turn: K/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($202.2, 1 player + 2 all-in - Main pot: $201.1, Sidepot 1: $1.1)


River: T/images/graemlins/club.gif ($202.2, 1 player + 2 all-in - Main pot: $201.1, Sidepot 1: $1.1)


Results:
Final pot: $202.2
<font color="#ffffff">UTG showed 5s 6s</font>
<font color="#ffffff">CO showed Ac Qh</font>
<font color="#ffffff">SB showed 3d 3s</font>

LOL he won too, so hes probably going to do it again.

[TheRenaissance]

[ QUOTE ]
Blinds: $1.1/$1.1

[/ QUOTE ]
/images/graemlins/confused.gif

[TheRenaissance]

[ QUOTE ]
Pre-flop: (5 players) hero is Button with J/images/graemlins/spade.gif Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif
UTG calls, CO calls, <font color="#cc0000">hero raises to $50</font>, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises all-in $75</font>, BB folds, <font color="#cc0000">UTG calls all-in $50</font>, CO calls, hero folds.

[/ QUOTE ]
/images/graemlins/confused.gif /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[TheRenaissance]

[ QUOTE ]
Results:
Final pot: $202.2
UTG showed 5s 6s
CO showed Ac Qh
SB showed 3d 3s

[/ QUOTE ]
/images/graemlins/confused.gif /images/graemlins/confused.gif /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[jimpo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Pre-flop: (5 players) hero is Button with J/images/graemlins/spade.gif Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif
UTG calls, CO calls, <font color="#cc0000">hero raises to $50</font>, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises all-in $75</font>, BB folds, <font color="#cc0000">UTG calls all-in $50</font>, CO calls, hero folds.

[/ QUOTE ]
/images/graemlins/confused.gif /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

WTF is going on here???

Anyhow, cool, I feel like I have learned something from this thread. Next time I am going to attempt this, it should be doable even "live":

Simple hand range equity calculation

1. I put villain on JJ, QQ, KK, AA = 4 hands
2. Leave out the case KK for now for simplicity
3. We are behind to JJ and AA same amount as QQ is behind to us (both cases 2 outs for the underdog)
4. Number of AA hands: 1 unit. QQ: 1 unit, JJ: 1/2 unit
5. ahead:behind = 1:1.5. This is our equity. A quick look at the pot odds should tell us that this is more than enough
6. If I want I can fine tune and discount AA to say 0.7 units since preflop does not look like AA. That would make our equity 1:1.2. Also I can account for the case KK, it moves the equity slighty towards 1:1, say 1:1.15. HUGE push getting more than 1:2.

[Check_The_Nuts]

This hand blows my mind. As played either call or shove looks good, folding sucks. Don't bet the flop if you don't want to literally call any raise from him.

Preflop if you think his range is uber-tight then repop bigger or don't 4bet cuz u might squeeze his range too tight. Being scared to get it in on this flop is being scared as far as I'm concerned.

[jimpo]

[ QUOTE ]
This hand blows my mind. As played either call or shove looks good, folding sucks. Don't bet the flop if you don't want to literally call any raise from him.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you mean that there exists a valid line which checks on the flop?

[ QUOTE ]

Preflop if you think his range is uber-tight then repop bigger or don't 4bet cuz u might squeeze his range too tight. Being scared to get it in on this flop is being scared as far as I'm concerned.

[/ QUOTE ]

What do you mean by this? What does "not making his range too tight" accomplish for us?

[Check_The_Nuts]

[ QUOTE ]

Do you mean that there exists a valid line which checks on the flop?



[/ QUOTE ]

Only three aces in the deck man, and if you think his range is JJ-AA and AK then your not that far ahead of the range. More importantly, if you think AK isn't in his range there is 0 harm in giving a free card. There's also nothing wrong with betting the flop.

[ QUOTE ]

What do you mean by this? What does "not making his range too tight" accomplish for us?

[/ QUOTE ]

For example, if he only calls preflop with JJ-AA you probably wouldn't want that because if he's doing that minraise [censored] with AJ and willing to stack off on this flop, well thats way more +EV. Right? And he looks like the type of villian to trap himself if you donk into him on this flop and he holds AJ.

[jimpo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Do you mean that there exists a valid line which checks on the flop?



[/ QUOTE ]

Only three aces in the deck man, and if you think his range is JJ-AA and AK then your not that far ahead of the range. More importantly, if you think AK isn't in his range there is 0 harm in giving a free card. There's also nothing wrong with betting the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I was curious to what's the rest of the plan in case you decide to check the flop? Call a bet on turn, fold to river bet? Raise turn bet? What if he checks turn too?

[Check_The_Nuts]

call any turn bet from him (including an ace turn). Bet river on any non-ace turn/river.

basically bet turn bet river, if he bets turn I bet river when checked to. I'd also probably call two bets. There's a lot of things that could happen here obviously...

[corsakh]

54/4 over 40 hands is good enough sample to say that you villain is a loose fish who watches too much WSOP, but not big enough to assume his raising range. The board is completely uncoordinated, and the only thing that can hurt you is JJ or AA. You pay him off in this scenario, but I am fairly sure he stacks off on AJ and KJ here. And yes, I will never consider folding against 54/4 on this board. Some times they hit a big hand, so be it. Its poker, the only thing that matters is that you are ahead of his range on this board.

The flop bet is exactly the right amount. Dont listen to anyone.

[Isura]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Most of the people who think this is an easy push also don't think that the hand range you picked is realistic.

I know that villain may be running hot but even over 50 hands a 54%VPIP is high. I think that this is two suited Broadways as much as it is the hand range you picked (JJ+ and AK).

[/ QUOTE ]

54% VPIP is high, but 5% PF raise is very low, and villain insta-min-3bet. I can't see how he can have two suited broadways here.

[/ QUOTE ]

The thing is, preflop numbers don't directly correlate with hand ranges with bad players. His reraising range could be QQ/AK/A5s/44 or something similarly wacky. I think the range of JJ+ is much too tight, and even with that range it is a very close play. So easy call-in for me. I see donkeys with 5% pfr reraise AJ or JTs.

[ama0330]

I think this is really close but I'd probably push this in. As Isura says, I've seen a lot of wierd [censored] turning up here.

[frinxor]

Are you using dogwatch?