Fold this Set on Flop?

[deleteduser]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB ($48)
BB ($50)
UTG ($31.05)
MP ($43.20)
CO ($90.70)
Hero ($78.15)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $1.5</font>, Hero calls $1.50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $6</font>, CO calls $4.50, Hero calls $4.50.

Flop: ($18.25) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $9</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $84.7</font>, Hero?



No Reads

[NSchandler]

A read would definitely help, but against an unknown I just have to call here. I think you're going to see a draw + pair quite a bit, something like A/images/graemlins/spade.gifK or A/images/graemlins/spade.gifA

I doubt a made flush would play like this. To be honest, I'd be more scared of KK or QQ than a flush.

[rakes.a.beach]

insta fold. KK QQ is scary.

[kolotoure]

WTF at folding

[Brian O'Nolan]

Never ever fold this. You better be at least 183299228 BB deep before you fold a flopped set in a reraised pot.

[AJGibson]

Insta call.

[creamfillin]

arr in, arr day

[crushednuts]

Call, fill up on turn, laugh as bare Ace of spades is drawing dead..

[cbloom]

Never fold a set. However, your equity vs. his shove range here is not very good so get ready for variance.

[Lego05]

Call...you're beating CO. He's almost never playing a flopped flush like that and KK/QQ is doubtful. And if BB calls behind you you'll have the odds to fill up even if BB already has a flush. KK/QQ from him would suck.

[VegasNick]

why would he push for so much hes has to know somebody has a hand...he can def have KK or QQ here but folding 99 here is hard..with no reads i would fold..people dont just shove with a average hand there either he has a flush already or KK or QQ fold

[jumbojacks]

lol @ "never folding a set"

I don't mind a fold here, as I think you're ahead of very little.

[Pirelli]

Fold if you hate money.

[Speedlimits]

Call. Embrace Variance.

[VegasNick]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold if you Like money.

[/ QUOTE ] fyp

[VegasNick]

[ QUOTE ]
lol @ "never folding a set"

I don't mind a fold here, as I think you're ahead of very little.

[/ QUOTE ]ur right people see a set and think oh this is insta call every time....no this is a very foldable hand on an flop like that

[czGLoRy]

wow, tough spot.
I think you have to grit your teeth and call, I would expect to see pocket aces with the spade here, maybe QK, but I seriously doubt he would play a big made flush that way, Id expect to see aces or top two pair.

[kolotoure]

It's a high variance call. Stop being nits please

[VegasNick]

[ QUOTE ]
It's a high variance call. Stop being nits please

[/ QUOTE ] well i actually do agree with that and change my answer from Fold to Call with no reads whatsoever...its a high variance call indeed

[paulw]

Pretty tough spot, my initial reaction was fold but I ran it through pokerstove to see what came out

Board: Qs 9s Ks
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.434% 42.22% 01.21% 6270 180.00 { 9c9h }
Hand 1: 56.566% 55.35% 01.21% 8220 180.00 { AcAs, AdAs, AhAs, KK-QQ, AsKc, AsKd, AsKh, AsQc, AsQd, AsQh }

I really doubt he has a flopped flush so I think based on this without reads its a call, if we add the unlikely KQo into his range you become a 52% fav, with 7 outs on the turn against a flush and 10 on the river. Very interesting hand being the newb I am I learnt alot running this through pokerstove, before analysing the hand for me this was a fold but I now think this is a definite call.

(edit for spelling)

[Sigurd]

Call and hate it..

[_TKO_]

VegasNick: your recent posts always put the opponent on a monster hand. This isn't always the case for two reasons: 1) big hands are mathematically less likely; and 2) most opponents suck (at least at these stakes).

[MegaRigger]

Call and prepare for some pain.

[corsakh]

Contact the duty manage if your poker room accepts side bets /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

ps And your accountant how much your mortage is worth :P :P :P

[carnivalhobo]

wtf, get happy with getting it in here WE HAVE A SET and no one ever has [censored] on 3 flush flops.

[TheRenaissance]

[ QUOTE ]
wtf, get happy with getting it in here WE HAVE A SET and no one ever has [censored] on 3 flush flops.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol leak alert

[KriStuS]

Get it in there. High variance but winning in the long run. Btw,, three bet flop against most opponents.

[jimpo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
lol @ "never folding a set"

I don't mind a fold here, as I think you're ahead of very little.

[/ QUOTE ]ur right people see a set and think oh this is insta call every time

[/ QUOTE ]

Agree it is not insta call, sometimes you can insta raise too.

[jimpo]

[ QUOTE ]
Pretty tough spot, my initial reaction was fold but I ran it through pokerstove to see what came out

Board: Qs 9s Ks
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.434% 42.22% 01.21% 6270 180.00 { 9c9h }
Hand 1: 56.566% 55.35% 01.21% 8220 180.00 { AcAs, AdAs, AhAs, KK-QQ, AsKc, AsKd, AsKh, AsQc, AsQd, AsQh }


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know why you only used 3 of the AA's here? And I can see AK without spades, being scared of spades, doing this as well. For example against range

Board: Qs 9s Ks
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 65.331% 63.65% 01.68% 17013 450.00 { 9c9h }
Hand 1: 34.669% 32.99% 01.68% 8817 450.00 { QQ+, 99, AKs, AKo, AsQc, AsQd, AsQh }


OP is krushing the opponent. Put KQ in there and it is even better. In any case, you are not behind his range, and there's dead money in the pot.

More interesting is, what is BB's calling range and how it affects our equity? It's 3-handed pot, not HU.

[kurto]

I have a question.... the villain has been at the table long enough to have increased his stack 90bb. OP has been there long enough to increase his stack by 56bb.... why does he have no reads?

[Sean Fraley]

[ QUOTE ]
VegasNick: your recent posts always put the opponent on a monster hand. This isn't always the case for two reasons: 1) big hands are mathematically less likely; and 2) most opponents suck (at least at these stakes).

[/ QUOTE ]

QFT. This is one of the signs that give me the impression that you haven't played online seriously for too large of a sample size yet. By the time you get 50k or more hands under your belt, you suddenly begin to realize that:

1) uNL villains are scared to death that they won't get action on their big hands, therefore

2) their normal course of action when flopping a flush (or any big hand) is to slowplay at least on the flop. A lot will check-call a flopped flush on the flop and turn and then shove or check-raise the river, even if the board pairs twice.

3) If a uNL villain isn't a rock or a complete and unremitting calling station they like to bluff like rabid monkeys, and for some reason shoving one card nut flush draws seems to be a favorite pastime among these donkeys.

[corsakh]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
lol @ "never folding a set"

I don't mind a fold here, as I think you're ahead of very little.

[/ QUOTE ]ur right people see a set and think oh this is insta call every time

[/ QUOTE ]

Agree it is not insta call, sometimes you can insta raise too.

[/ QUOTE ]

Quote of the week :-D

[MrMysterious]

... youll see a monkey with AK or AA here often enough. for 150BB, call.

[BevillTheDevil]

bet more on the flop as well

[bussto]

get that all in plz

[Isura]

call of course.