Breakeven Month = You Are Not Good At Poker

[HP]

Take a no limit 6.5 PTBB/100 winner with a st. dev. of 36.9 PTBB/100

Many people claim this winrate as their earn (mostly in small and mid stakes). afaik this is also a typical st dev.

So, say we play 20k hands. Here's the math:

st dev for 20k hands ~= sqrt(200) * 36.9 PTBB's
= 521.8 PTBB's = 10.4 buy ins

And the alleged earn is 26 buy ins over 20k hands

So a breakeven month is then 2.5 st. dev.'s from the norm. This means you should expect to have a breakeven or worse month on average 1 month in 81 (I remembered some [censored] about erf functions to figure this out go me). About once every 6.7 years

But then, whenever something like this gets posted on 2+2, out of the woodwork some stats nerd is all like "yeah but you are assuming a normal distribution IT'S NOT NORMAL OMG WTF"

So, I went into my PT database and took a look at my last 65k hands (which is where the above winrate and st. dev. come from). Then I used this as my probability distribution. towards the left is when I win money, it's kind of opposite cause I'm not good with excel graphs:

http://img207.imageshack.us/img207/7301/mystatsqo8.png

It's not perfect, but it's much better than assuming a Gaussian I reckon

So then using this I simulated playing 20k hands. I did this 65000 times. Of these times only 502 were negative, that's 0.77%. So it turns out it's even more unlikely to have a breakeven month taking into account the fact that your results are not distributed normally (1.24% assuming normal distribution). The absolute worst result in 65000 trials was down 10 buy ins.

http://img149.imageshack.us/img149/2996/monthlyresultsbm3.png

In conclusion, if you have a breakeven or losing month where you've played at least 20k hands of no limit, your earn is probably not anywhere near 6.5PTBB/100 hands

If this seams contradictory to your PT stats I suggest a few expalantions:

1)You were tilting this month
2)You were table selecting bad this month
3)You're stats do not reflect your true earn, expect to be humbled over the next few hundred thousand hands

[costanza_g]

[ QUOTE ]
3)You're stats do not reflect your true earn

[/ QUOTE ]

LIES!

[igetjokes]

I think there's a geek forum somewhere where this would make sense.

[bigt2k4]

do you even know what BBV stands for?

[HP]

btw if some one really wants me to I can do the same thing for limited hold them

I'll need some one to send me the results of there last ~50k hands (more the better, but you can't export to excel more than 65536 hands at a time)

Also, I could do this for a no limit 3PTBB/100 hand winner

but you'd have to be super nice to me

[steel108]

Another possible solution which people tend to overlook:

Their play has remained stagnant while others have improved. They may have been a 6.5 winner a few months ago, but they have fallen behind the competition in terms of improving their game.

[HP]

[ QUOTE ]
do you even know what BBV stands for?

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, I kind of wanted to put this out there so in the future we/I can belittle people who are running bad by linking them to this post

[AE6]

/images/graemlins/frown.gif i really hope you made a big mistake in there somewhere

[HP]

[ QUOTE ]
:( i really hope you made a big mistake in there somewhere

[/ QUOTE ]

me too

http://img245.imageshack.us/img245/1860/picfi1.jpg

[TheWorstPlayer]

uh...i'll give odds on prop bets against ANYONE that they will not win at 6.5ptbb/100 at ANY stakes above NL100 over the next 100K hands. LOL.

[derosnec]

so i guess 6 breakeven months is bad then right?

[Victor]

" This means you should expect to have a breakeven or worse month on average 1 month in 81 (I remembered some [censored] about erf functions to figure this out go me). About once every 6.7 years"

there are more than 81 regular bbv posters.

[HP]

[ QUOTE ]
uh...i'll give odds on prop bets against ANYONE that they will not win at 6.5ptbb/100 at ANY stakes above NL100 over the next 100K hands. LOL.

[/ QUOTE ]

oh. I'm a bit out of touch with the strat forums, I just remember a time when 5 PTBB was considered "ok" at mid stakes NL. Guess sentiments have changed?

[demon102]

trying to understand op made my head hurt

[derosnec]

how do i calculate the stress stars i win every month?

[VickreyAuction]

Thank you! I've been wondering what the integral of 1/x^2 from negative infinity to infinity looked like!

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
uh...i'll give odds on prop bets against ANYONE that they will not win at 6.5ptbb/100 at ANY stakes above NL100 over the next 100K hands. LOL.

[/ QUOTE ]

oh. I'm a bit out of touch with the strat forums, I just remember a time when 5 PTBB was considered "ok" at mid stakes NL. Guess sentiments have changed?

[/ QUOTE ]

the 'suck at poker' hierarchy has added a few steps onto the pyramid, yes

[HP]

[ QUOTE ]
" This means you should expect to have a breakeven or worse month on average 1 month in 81 (I remembered some [censored] about erf functions to figure this out go me). About once every 6.7 years"

there are more than 81 regular bbv posters.

[/ QUOTE ]

LDO

[ QUOTE ]
your earn is probably not anywhere near 6.5PTBB/100 hands

[/ QUOTE ]

[WiltOnTilt]

I'd give odds to most 2+2'ers that they couldnt sustain 4ptbb+ at 3/6nl+ over 100k hands.

[bigt2k4]

[ QUOTE ]
uh...i'll give odds on prop bets against ANYONE that they will not win at 6.5ptbb/100 at ANY stakes above NL100 over the next 100K hands. LOL.

[/ QUOTE ]
80k more hands to go. I accept your bet.
http://img72.imageshack.us/img72/2447/orlynd3.jpg

[IronFly]

I see some NL(0.10) in there....

good post HP.

[TheWorstPlayer]

Actually 100K hands more to go. I'm glad you accepted my bet, though. I'm giving 1.0000000000001:1 on 5K. I have data mining, but you should also keep track of your own results.

[HP]

^^^ UB uncapped .05-.10 ftw?

edit: obv not upon a bit of further thought

[raze]

Related note - someone had a great thread similar to this. It showed simulated long-term graphs for a variety of winrates. Can someone please please hook up the link

[HP]

[ QUOTE ]
Thank you! I've been wondering what the integral of 1/x^2 from negative infinity to infinity looked like!

[/ QUOTE ]

It don't look like anything bro, it's undefined

[Fonkey123]

Swings are going to be A LOT higher for a 2bb/100 or 3bb/100 winner. A break even month of 20k hands probably isn't uncommon at all.

[Fonkey123]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Thank you! I've been wondering what the integral of 1/x^2 from negative infinity to infinity looked like!

[/ QUOTE ]

It don't look like anything bro, it's undefined

[/ QUOTE ]

And obv lol.

[jmxthievez]

ahhahaha show me some hand histories, im obv up for this month

[HP]

[ QUOTE ]
ahhahaha show me some hand histories, im obv up for this month

[/ QUOTE ]

This was the hand referred to in the graph:

SB <font color="#A500AF">(assface)</font> ($1675.65)
-----
-----
HP ($887.60)
-----

Preflop: Hero is MP with 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">HP raises to $14</font>, Button calls $14, <font color="#CC3333">SB <font color="#A500AF">(assface)</font> raises to $60</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, HP calls $46, Button folds.

Flop: ($138) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">assface bets $120</font>, HP calls $120.

Turn: ($378) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
assface checks, <font color="#CC3333">HP bets $250</font>, assface calls $250.

River: ($878) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
assface checks, <font color="#CC3333">HP bets $457.6 (All-In)</font>, assface calls $457.60.

Final Pot: $1793.20

assface has A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q/images/graemlins/club.gif (one pair, aces).
HP has 6/images/graemlins/club.gif 5/images/graemlins/club.gif (one pair, fives).



And a few other notables:



-----
Button <font color="#A500AF">(assface)</font> ($447.60)
HP ($462.40)
-----

Preflop: Hero is SB with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button <font color="#A500AF">(assface)</font> raises to $14</font>, <font color="#CC3333">HP raises to $46</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button <font color="#A500AF">(assface)</font> calls $32.

Flop: ($96) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">HP bets $75</font>, assface calls $75.

Turn: ($246) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
HP checks, assface checks.

River: ($246) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">HP bets $246</font>, <font color="#CC3333">assface raises to $326.6 (All-In)</font>, HP calls $80.60.

Final Pot: $899.20

assface has T/images/graemlins/spade.gif 9/images/graemlins/club.gif (two pair, tens and nines).
HP has A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (one pair, aces).
Outcome: assface wins $899.20.



-----
MP <font color="#A500AF">(assface)</font> ($847.30)
-----
-----
HP ($506.50)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP <font color="#A500AF">(assface)</font> raises to $14</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls $12, <font color="#CC3333">HP raises to $56</font>, MP <font color="#A500AF">(assface)</font> calls $42, SB folds.

Flop: ($126) K/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">HP bets $100</font>, assface calls $100.

Turn: ($326) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
HP checks, assface checks.

River: ($326) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">HP bets $175</font>, <font color="#CC3333">assface raises to $691.3 (All-In)</font>, HP calls $175.50 (All-In).

Final Pot: $1027

HP has Jh/images/graemlins/heart.gif J/images/graemlins/club.gif (full house, jacks full of kings).
assface has Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (full house, kings full of queens).
Outcome: assface wins $1027

[Pog0]

[ QUOTE ]
uh...i'll give odds on prop bets against ANYONE that they will not win at 6.5ptbb/100 at ANY stakes above NL100 over the next 100K hands. LOL.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would be mildly depressed if I only ran at 6.5 ptbb/100 over my next 100k hands.

OP, this 'standard deviation' stat that you use, that you probably took from poker tracker, means absolutely nothing.

[jmxthievez]

lol i know who you are, you have major leaks.

ps. im drunk...so i won't be a dick but i have some "interesting" spew hh if you want to see

[HP]

[ QUOTE ]
lol i know who you are, you have major leaks.

ps. im drunk...so i won't be a dick but i have some "interesting" spew hh if you want to see

[/ QUOTE ]

me spewing or you spewing? either way post away

pm me leaks plz kthnx

[Pog0]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
lol i know who you are, you have major leaks.

ps. im drunk...so i won't be a dick but i have some "interesting" spew hh if you want to see

[/ QUOTE ]

me spewing or you spewing? either way post away

pm me leaks plz kthnx

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't he talking to me? He replied to me after my cocky post, so it made sense.

But he's drunk, so he may have been responding to anyone.

But I play 10 hands a month, so I'm just shocked anyone knows who I am.

[HP]

[ QUOTE ]
OP, this 'standard deviation' stat that you use, that you probably took from poker tracker, means absolutely nothing.

[/ QUOTE ]

are you saying PT calculates standard deviation incorrectly, or that using it the way I did was incorrect?

either way, meh, the .7% figure I arrived at didn't use standard deviation at all

[SEABEAST]

[ QUOTE ]
uh...i'll give odds on prop bets against ANYONE that they will not win at 6.5ptbb/100 at ANY stakes above NL100 over the next 100K hands. LOL.

[/ QUOTE ]

You mean "ANYONE (that doesnt still have access to Party)" right? :P



http://img136.imageshack.us/img136/2601/startof2007jk8.jpg

last couple of months etc, sry americans /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[HP]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
lol i know who you are, you have major leaks.

ps. im drunk...so i won't be a dick but i have some "interesting" spew hh if you want to see

[/ QUOTE ]

me spewing or you spewing? either way post away

pm me leaks plz kthnx

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't he talking to me? He replied to me after my cocky post, so it made sense.

But he's drunk, so he may have been responding to anyone.

But I play 10 hands a month, so I'm just shocked anyone knows who I am.

[/ QUOTE ]

well, before, he said

[ QUOTE ]

ahhahaha show me some hand histories, im obv up for this month

[/ QUOTE ]

and then I posted 3 hh's where he stacked me, so I'm assuming he's referring to me

[Inyaface]

HP,
Meh I broke even for 2 months and I make lotsa monies over a big sample.

Bigt2k4,
IS there a reason you've posted some graph of how you are running in like every forum on 2p2 since you've had a super hot month? Just wondering.

[tagtastic]

[ QUOTE ]
You mean "ANYONE (that doesnt still have access to Party)" right? :P

[/ QUOTE ]

I

Hate

You

[Pog0]

k thanks for clearing that up HP. For a second there I was worried that I had some leaks, but now you have reassured me that I don't have any.

As I thought.

[Gobias Ind.]

Maybe try the German Forum, you calc Nazi!

[Pog0]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
uh...i'll give odds on prop bets against ANYONE that they will not win at 6.5ptbb/100 at ANY stakes above NL100 over the next 100K hands. LOL.

[/ QUOTE ]

You mean "ANYONE (that doesnt still have access to Party)" right? :P



http://img136.imageshack.us/img136/2601/startof2007jk8.jpg

last couple of months etc, sry americans /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

asdfjlasdjfasd, my stats and hands played are very similar... if not identical... except mine's only 106k hands and it's since fricken October.

[Ojo_Rojo]

[ QUOTE ]
So, I went into my PT database and took a look at my last 65k hands (which is where the above winrate and st. dev. come from). Then I used this as my probability distribution.

[/ QUOTE ]

65k hands doesnt sound like a lot to base your probabilities on. My initial thought is that you need LOADS more data. Maybe I'm wrong....

Edit: Second thoughts, I am wrong.

[acidca]

Have you considered that one plays differently and against different opponents each session?

Have you also considered that a very, very small percentage of players run at 6.5ptbb/100+ and that those players typically move up within 20k hands or so anyway?

[ahnuld]

wow great. However making 6.5 pt/bb is one of the highest winrates at 3/6+ and that variance is ridiculously low at 1/2nl let alone 5/10nl

[pdoran10]

what happens if you have a only 5 buy ins 10 day span? quit poker? take up hard drugs? (looking for a enabler here)

[Stinger88]

I lost slightly last 2 months in a row, I guess I should quit poker

[TheWorstPlayer]

No, I dont mean to exclude Party people. If Pogo or Seabeast (or anyone else) want to bet on their next 100K hands, lemme know. I'll bet up to 5K.

[redCashion]

[ QUOTE ]
No, I dont mean to exclude Party people. If Pogo or Seabeast (or anyone else) want to bet on their next 100K hands, lemme know. I'll bet up to 5K.

[/ QUOTE ]

How would you be certain that people aren't removing hands from their DB to inflate their winrate?

[bigt2k4]

[ QUOTE ]
HP,
Meh I broke even for 2 months and I make lotsa monies over a big sample.

Bigt2k4,
IS there a reason you've posted some graph of how you are running in like every forum on 2p2 since you've had a super hot month? Just wondering.

[/ QUOTE ]
I thought it was quite obvious that this graph was a filter graph. How can anyone run @ 200bb/100 @ any limit.
Also, I did the one graph for the HSNL thread that got ninja bumped in which I didn't notice. I then decided to post the graph in BBV since it was more appropriate.

[Fonkey123]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
No, I dont mean to exclude Party people. If Pogo or Seabeast (or anyone else) want to bet on their next 100K hands, lemme know. I'll bet up to 5K.

[/ QUOTE ]

How would you be certain that people aren't removing hands from their DB to inflate their winrate?

[/ QUOTE ]

Datamining.

[redCashion]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
No, I dont mean to exclude Party people. If Pogo or Seabeast (or anyone else) want to bet on their next 100K hands, lemme know. I'll bet up to 5K.

[/ QUOTE ]

How would you be certain that people aren't removing hands from their DB to inflate their winrate?

[/ QUOTE ]

Datamining.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you played on Stars people wouldn't be able to datamine all the hands you played. I know on FT and other sites you can, but it's not a given that you can on every site.

[DING-DONG YO]

All I want to say is nice post. Been a while since we had a serious discussion about variance. Good work, OP.

[catcher193]

chicken pot pie is nasty

[TheWorstPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
No, I dont mean to exclude Party people. If Pogo or Seabeast (or anyone else) want to bet on their next 100K hands, lemme know. I'll bet up to 5K.

[/ QUOTE ]

How would you be certain that people aren't removing hands from their DB to inflate their winrate?

[/ QUOTE ]

Datamining.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you played on Stars people wouldn't be able to datamine all the hands you played. I know on FT and other sites you can, but it's not a given that you can on every site.

[/ QUOTE ]
All I need to do is include a stipulation that they send me their DB at the end of the 100K hands and they lose the bet if I have a HH from the time-period that is not in their DB.

[craigthedeac]

Good work HP. Only question I have is what is the purpose of the first graph given that it is in hands and not per 100 hands? We don't know standard deviation per hand (and if my memory serves me correctly, we can't just divide by 100).

The second graph is the good/important one IMO. This gives reasonable evidence that someone who has a breakeven month probably isn't a 6.5 winner. This just indicates that their true winrate is lower but not necessarily 0 or negative.

However, if you take a 3 or 4 PTBB/100 winner (which is much more common/reasonable these days) and imagine that second graph shifting over (moving about halfway from +26 bi's to breakeven, because the cut in winrate is about half), you'll see that there will be a large % of breakeven or worse months for 20k hands.

Therefore, most winners should expect breakeven months, because most winners don't beat the game for 6.5PTBB.

An example for a 3PTBB/100 winner, 20k hands...

Should expect +12 buyins [(3/100*20,000)/50 to convert to a buyin.]

Even if we assume that SD remains the same, when in reality it should be higher because we can assume that player is worse and is obviously less consistent, that's about 1 SD below the norm. z score of -1 or worse is about 16% chance of happening.

16% for a 3BB winner is a conservative estimate, and because I imagine most "winners" on 2p2 are in the 0-3BB range, the chance of a breakeven month is actually pretty likely. So it's not fair to say these people are "not good at poker."

btw, where is SD located in PT?

[ipot]

NERD

[Thremp]

Your SD is very low.

[Quark]

I agree with OP, I always found you guys having losing months strange. I run @ over 6ptbb/100 @ 400 and 600nl and I havent had a single losing month where I played 10k hands or more.

However, I agree that if you are a 2 or 3 ptbb winner, then its more likely, depending on how many hands a month you play, that you'll have a losing month sometimes

[HP]

[ QUOTE ]
Have you considered that one plays differently and against different opponents each session?

[/ QUOTE ]
yeah, if your earn drops because you play differently because of opponents, then it's bad table selection

[ QUOTE ]
Have you also considered that a very, very small percentage of players run at 6.5ptbb/100+ and that those players typically move up within 20k hands or so anyway?

[/ QUOTE ]
not until after making this thread. I was under the impression lots of players were achieving 6.5

[HP]

[ QUOTE ]
wow great. However making 6.5 pt/bb is one of the highest winrates at 3/6+ and that variance is ridiculously low at 1/2nl let alone 5/10nl

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah I'd be interested in doing this for some one who's got ~65k hands of 3ptbb/100

All I need is the net after each hand (Game Notes --&gt; Get All --&gt; Sort by Net --&gt; Print --&gt; Uncheck everything except Net --&gt; Export), I don't need hh's

And yeah as I said before I could this for limit too

edit: I'd do it anonymously if requested

[HP]

[ QUOTE ]
Good work HP. Only question I have is what is the purpose of the first graph given that it is in hands and not per 100 hands? We don't know standard deviation per hand (and if my memory serves me correctly, we can't just divide by 100).

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure I get what your asking, but the purpose of the first graph is to estimate what the probability distribution of my results are after playing 1 hand. I never need to calculate st. dev.

[disjunction]

[ QUOTE ]

So then using this I simulated playing 20k hands. I did this 65000 times. Of these times only 502 were negative, that's 0.77%.


[/ QUOTE ]

If I understand what you did correctly, and if I remember my stats, the Binomial Theorem assures that this will ALWAYS turn out to be a normal distribution, no matter what the real world said it was originally.

[bills217]

Wait a minute - does this mean FGators isn't just on an extended downswing??

[HP]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

So then using this I simulated playing 20k hands. I did this 65000 times. Of these times only 502 were negative, that's 0.77%.


[/ QUOTE ]

If I understand what you did correctly, and if I remember my stats, the Binomial Theorem assures that this will ALWAYS turn out to be a normal distribution, no matter what the real world said it was originally.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, 65k hands and you'd expect the result to be damn close to a normal distribution. And it looks like is it (If I cared enough I would test this with some excel/math stuff)

However I'm not a stats guy, and I'm not sure if it follows that the resulting variance will be the same as it would be had you calculated st. dev. of one hand and then just multiplied it by (65k)^(1/2)

[MATT111]

I am convinced a true wr of &gt;6BB is possible on Party 200/400 and maybe 600 as well and I would take the bet if I didn`t plan to play higher than 400. Especially if you are not 100tabling.

http://img108.imageshack.us/img108/4494/97sq5.png (http://imageshack.us)

[HP]

[ QUOTE ]
Wait a minute - does this mean FGators isn't just on an extended downswing??

[/ QUOTE ]

[censored] no, that guy's just in the bottom 2x10^(-14) %

super unlucky

[HP]

btw, how come there aren't more people saying how awesome my avatar is?

[cts]

6.5ptbb/100 lollll

[HP]

[ QUOTE ]
6.5ptbb/100 lollll

[/ QUOTE ]

you're a bit late to the party there sport

[thedustbustr]

HP,

great post.

I thought you had a bigger sample size than 65k hands. I'd love to see this experiment repeated by someone with a more realistic winrate and very large sample.

[Pog0]

[ QUOTE ]
6.5ptbb/100 lollll

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he just put the decimal in the wrong place.

[MyTurn2Raise]

stdev is very wrong on this from what I know

[ebepse]

this is above my head


but if you break even for 8979879 hands u be a winning player if it were not for rake


but i guess winning doesnt necessarily mean good

[captainwacky]

[ QUOTE ]
uh...i'll give odds on prop bets against ANYONE that they will not win at 6.5ptbb/100 at ANY stakes above NL100 over the next 100K hands. LOL.

[/ QUOTE ]

I accept... but 2 months ago....

[img=http://img184.imageshack.us/img184/659/100khnv7.th.jpg] (http://img184.imageshack.us/my.php?image=100khnv7.jpg)

[RikaKazak]

thanks HP...I know you'll get flamed a ton (haven't read responses yet, just assuming) butI for one appreciate you taking the time to do it then post it.

Could you do the abov example with 5 ptbb/100 and 60K hands?

[ebepse]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
uh...i'll give odds on prop bets against ANYONE that they will not win at 6.5ptbb/100 at ANY stakes above NL100 over the next 100K hands. LOL.

[/ QUOTE ]

I accept... but 2 months ago....

[img=http://img184.imageshack.us/img184/659/100khnv7.th.jpg] (http://img184.imageshack.us/my.php?image=100khnv7.jpg)

[/ QUOTE ]

that is awesome

[RikaKazak]

[ QUOTE ]
uh...i'll give odds on prop bets against ANYONE that they will not win at 6.5ptbb/100 at ANY stakes above NL100 over the next 100K hands. LOL.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll take it

NL 400 full ring on tilt

[hasugopher]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
No, I dont mean to exclude Party people. If Pogo or Seabeast (or anyone else) want to bet on their next 100K hands, lemme know. I'll bet up to 5K.

[/ QUOTE ]

How would you be certain that people aren't removing hands from their DB to inflate their winrate?

[/ QUOTE ]

Datamining.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you played on Stars people wouldn't be able to datamine all the hands you played. I know on FT and other sites you can, but it's not a given that you can on every site.

[/ QUOTE ]
there are public datamining services, which includes stats on players for every site. even for stars. I don't have a subscription but I've seen legit screenshots.

[FoldEqu1ty]

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No, I dont mean to exclude Party people. If Pogo or Seabeast (or anyone else) want to bet on their next 100K hands, lemme know. I'll bet up to 5K.

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How would you be certain that people aren't removing hands from their DB to inflate their winrate?

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Datamining.

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If you played on Stars people wouldn't be able to datamine all the hands you played. I know on FT and other sites you can, but it's not a given that you can on every site.

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there are public datamining services, which includes stats on players for every site. even for stars. I don't have a subscription but I've seen legit screenshots.

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Link???

Plz plz plz plz plz????

[ImsaKidd]

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No, I dont mean to exclude Party people. If Pogo or Seabeast (or anyone else) want to bet on their next 100K hands, lemme know. I'll bet up to 5K.

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How would you be certain that people aren't removing hands from their DB to inflate their winrate?

[/ QUOTE ]

Datamining.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you played on Stars people wouldn't be able to datamine all the hands you played. I know on FT and other sites you can, but it's not a given that you can on every site.

[/ QUOTE ]
there are public datamining services, which includes stats on players for every site. even for stars. I don't have a subscription but I've seen legit screenshots.

[/ QUOTE ]

Link???

Plz plz plz plz plz????

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Also interested.

[FortunaMaximus]

(-24 from endpoint) carry to (31 past startpoint)

Peace within.

Cereknov purple.

[jimmyhat1000]

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No, I dont mean to exclude Party people. If Pogo or Seabeast (or anyone else) want to bet on their next 100K hands, lemme know. I'll bet up to 5K.

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How would you be certain that people aren't removing hands from their DB to inflate their winrate?

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Datamining.

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If you played on Stars people wouldn't be able to datamine all the hands you played. I know on FT and other sites you can, but it's not a given that you can on every site.

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All I need to do is include a stipulation that they send me their DB at the end of the 100K hands and they lose the bet if I have a HH from the time-period that is not in their DB.

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wow, your def going to be out some $$, seabeast, can i take half the action?

[FoldEqu1ty]

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No, I dont mean to exclude Party people. If Pogo or Seabeast (or anyone else) want to bet on their next 100K hands, lemme know. I'll bet up to 5K.

[/ QUOTE ]

How would you be certain that people aren't removing hands from their DB to inflate their winrate?

[/ QUOTE ]

Datamining.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you played on Stars people wouldn't be able to datamine all the hands you played. I know on FT and other sites you can, but it's not a given that you can on every site.

[/ QUOTE ]
there are public datamining services, which includes stats on players for every site. even for stars. I don't have a subscription but I've seen legit screenshots.

[/ QUOTE ]

Link???

Plz plz plz plz plz????

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Also interested.

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Bumping because I want this really bad and will pay $$$$'s

Myth or reality?

[hasugopher]

The person who showed it to me hasn't been online for a cpl days but I don't want to out him. Not really sure how private he wants it. If anybody is that interested, PM me and I'll see what I can do (I can't promise anything though).

[kotkis]

I know PT's SD/100 isn't really accurate, but the number you gave in your OP is almost twice as small as what PT says mine is. Anyone know how to make a SQL query that would give us an accurate number? And while we're at it, how about the same thing for edge?

[Some9]

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I know PT's SD/100 isn't really accurate, but the number you gave in your OP is almost twice as small as what PT says mine is. Anyone know how to make a SQL query that would give us an accurate number? And while we're at it, how about the same thing for edge?

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anyone?

[Mothercanuck]

you are forgetting the levelling factor and the doomswitch factor...

[Speedlimits]

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uh...i'll give odds on prop bets against ANYONE that they will not win at 6.5ptbb/100 at ANY stakes above NL100 over the next 100K hands. LOL.

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You mean "ANYONE (that doesnt still have access to Party)" right? :P



http://img136.imageshack.us/img136/2601/startof2007jk8.jpg

last couple of months etc, sry americans /images/graemlins/frown.gif

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Your AF is pretty low hmmm. Well on turn/river. Interesting.