50NL: Deepish 2 pair faces resistance

[Antinome]

20 hands in, no meaningful read on villian. I've only seen him show down two hands, both boats. He fastplayed one and slowplayed the other.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
5 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
Hero: $98.55
CO: $60.55
Button: $49.25
SB: $121.70
BB: $39

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is UTG with 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif A/images/graemlins/spade.gif
<font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $1.75</font>, 2 folds, SB calls, BB folds.

Flop: T/images/graemlins/heart.gif A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif ($4, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets $2.5</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $11.5</font>, SB calls.

Turn: 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif ($27, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets $20</font>, Hero ?

[Abelardo]

What an ugly card... I guess I call and reevaluate on the river.

[Antinome]

[ QUOTE ]
What an ugly card... I guess I call and reevaluate on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why call and reevaluate? 4 cards improve me and I hate at least 11. Am I calling to call a 35 dollar river bet if I don't get worse?

[Abelardo]

You're still ahead to some hands he might bet this way, I highly suspect pair+diamond ones and he should slow down on the river, I would not call a big bet but might consider a small one, also you're still a bit deep so if you fill up and he has something you might get payed nicely.

Edit: I guess you can fold on the turn but that looks a bit weak to me and basically you're telling him he can run over you.

[slickss]

I don't like calling. Either fold or raise.

- Fold because it is very likely that he is crushing you with a flush (my option).
- Raise because he doesn't have the flush and is either bluffing or has AT/TT or TPFD and tried to hide it on the flop and was planning to check-raise you on the turn, if the diamond hadn't hit. In this case the bet acts as both a blocker and to feel if you have a flush.

As you said, calling only leaves you with 4 outs, which is why I don't like it.

[Abelardo]

Yes raising seems reasonable, I can be a station sometimes, anyways I'm thinking about folding now but raising could be the way to go but with higher variance, I hate this being a bit deep, one of my initial thoughts was I would raise if I were 100BB deep or less.

[Antinome]

Raising, folding and calling are all possible. People say that when you find yourelf in a tough spot, you made a mistake on an earlier street. Possibly preflop, but I dodged getting called by someone in position (they were pretty tight, and I felt I could get away with it.) Anyhow, that possible mistake doesn't play into this problem. Should I flatcall the flop bet? That kind of makes me sick, but it would make the hand somewhat easier, since we won't be playing for stacks. Any votes for a flop flatcall?

[Abelardo]

Maybe you could post in SSNL, it's as deep as NL100.

[mvdgaag]

That card sucks. I think he hasn't got a set or he would have pushed on the flop. This might very well be a bluff, or a lone Ad. I push and hope for the best, but it's close...

[DannyOcean_]

I defintely do not think you should ever flat call this flop. Too many worse hands will call you here I think. Flush and/or straight draws may still call, AK/AQ/AJ, maybe even a donk coming with Ax. imo always raise this flop, too much value to miss.

Turn is a suck card, and I think I fold with no read. I do not like to call a bet here bc I cannot see us betting out on the river OR calling a river bet if we don't improve. Because the river will suck, I think we have to fold here. I also don't like a turn raise because no worse hand pays us off at this point, villian has announced he is strong and I am inclined to believe him.

[thac]

*Grunch*

I really really don't think he has a flush here. At least not yet.

If villain has a set here, he should be 3-betting the flop. If he has AT, he should be 3-betting the flop. To me this looks like he has AQ-AJ (I call here and hardly ever reraise preflop with AQ-AJ, but not AK), and he probably has the Qd or Jd.

It's a pretty tough spot, but I think you're ahead more often than not. I raise, and I think because of the stack sizes I just shove. You can't really raise to $60 and fold to a push, and you maximize your fold equity in case he DOES have AT, and you force him to make a bad call if he has a lone diamond.

[stewcrew]

If I'm playing well I just fold this turn. Thats such a bad turn card. On the flop you beat FD, TP good kicker and lose to AT or set. But on turn you only beat TP good kicker and how he doesn't have that nearly as often as a flush here.

I would play this different with reads. Look at his line. If he is playing straightforward this is a flush and he has done that before with a boat. But calling the turn and hoping he doesn't bet the river is really a waste of $ IMHO.

[Check_The_Nuts]

I would def. at least call here, and I think raising is a decent option. I think the main problem with this hand is your UTG, and if I was villian I wouldn't expect a FD to be in your range very often.

With villian showing down so many big hands lately, I think its more likely he is bluffing.

[boycalledroy]

This is not the flush to the King why bet if you have the cinch hand after your strength on the flop. This is a small flush wanting to know where it is. I see 2 ways around this. Either::

Call now, push any diamond river (no I'm not crazy)
Push now, and represent a massive flush (depends how good the villain is)
Fold

I've not tried this play myself (I lack the brass monkeys for it, but I've seen it used to very good effect).

[Antinome]

Alright, what I did is fold.

I didn't put him on a flush,

1. because the A was out there. I don't believe a flush draw calls me on the flop often without a draw to the nuts. Only K/images/graemlins/diamond.gifQ/images/graemlins/diamond.gif through K/images/graemlins/diamond.gifT/images/graemlins/diamond.gif really makes sense.

2. And in that case, he's more confident about his hand and wants to suck me in, and bets a less.

So I think either AxK/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, AxQ/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, AT (with or without a diamond), 88 or TT.

Against that range, I'm a 10:1 dog or a 3:1 favorite. Mix in the flushes and I'm worse. On balance, I find a fold here. Forr 100BB I push. Someone could work out the relative frequencies of these hands given my hand and the board, and I think it would be close.

The hand he actually had (the moron proudly showed) I never put him on. He had A/images/graemlins/club.gif3/images/graemlins/club.gif. He put me on AK (don't they always?) and felt he had out-turned me, but was worried about another diamond.

[dodgybob]

Awkward stack sizes, I think I still shove.

I think you're not that far behind his calling range (30-35%), and with these stack sizes you are folding out enough of his range, and getting called by worse hands in his range enough to make a shove easily +ev.

BTW, I think he never has 88 or TT here, and I think your range for him is way too small.

[spacetime]

Good for you, you have got yourself a legitimate moron to play with!

I am folding also, nh.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]


The hand he actually had (the moron proudly showed) I never put him on. He had A/images/graemlins/club.gif3/images/graemlins/club.gif. He put me on AK (don't they always?) and felt he had out-turned me, but was worried about another diamond.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you played this hand correct despite the results. Note that playing hands correctly means sometimes you fold the best hand.

BTW, even if you had included A3 in his range, it's still a fold.

[dodgybob]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you played this hand correct despite the results. Note that playing hands correctly means sometimes you fold the best hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Obviously. I still think we are ahead vs enough of villains range to shove.

[Genz]

Against a range of AK,AQ,AT,KdQd,KdJd,KdTd,TT,88 (i assumed he could be "slowplaying" a set because he slowplayed a FH earlier) you are 47:53. Considering stack sizes and reverse implied odds, I probably still fold. And I don't hate villain's turn play. Flop is spew by him, of course. Make a note to value-bet him to death when you can beat TP.

[barryc83]

Against unknown, I like the fold, especially since the only hands hes shown down have been monsters. If I was playing well I'd fold here, if I was tilted I'd call. I think hes gonna have the flush a lot.

[draw2aflush]

defintely fold.

i think folding the flop is better you should be able to find better spots then this. you do not have anything invested and it smells like villian flopped a set

[draw2aflush]

[ QUOTE ]
You're still ahead to some hands he might bet this way, I highly suspect pair+diamond ones and he should slow down on the river, I would not call a big bet but might consider a small one, also you're still a bit deep so if you fill up and he has something you might get payed nicely.

Edit: I guess you can fold on the turn but that looks a bit weak to me and basically you're telling him he can run over you.

[/ QUOTE ]





No offense, but calling this turn is horrible esp for the reasons you said. You said the villian slow down if we call i seriously doubt it. How often does a stack this size with only that much left behind check or bet small on the river? Not very often and call because if you catch a 4 outer you will get stacked is awful by itself, but you may be drawing dead.




Folding this turn is letting him run over you and that is good because next time you will have a hand and villian will pay you thinking you will fold like always and it also gives you a tight image so you may be able to make a move later.

Folding is not only good because we are probably beat, but also for meta game.

Sorry if i sounded cruel here i just strongly disagree with your post and maybe i am way off in my thinking and if i am please let me know.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think you played this hand correct despite the results. Note that playing hands correctly means sometimes you fold the best hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Obviously. I still think we are ahead vs enough of villains range to shove.

[/ QUOTE ]

You would give yourself more credit if you actually constructed a hand range. Thus far you are just giving your opinion, referring twice specifically to a mental hand range with which you don't seem to share.

[Antinome]

[ QUOTE ]
defintely fold.

i think folding the flop is better you should be able to find better spots then this. you do not have anything invested and it smells like villian flopped a set

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a joke, right? You fold to weak donkbets? It only smells like a big hand after he calls my pot sized raise and leads for pot. Until that point I have his range crushed. Afterwards I'm 50/50 WA/WB in a RIO situation. If I knew I had zero FE versus his range, OR If I knew I had a lot of FE versus his range- based on reads- I would raise this. However, since I have to assume readless he behaves normally, and will fold the hands I beat, and call the hands that crush me, I have to fold turn.

Interesing hand. Thanks for the advice.