AQo 50nl gets check raised on turn

[prodonkey]

Villain is 16/6/1.5 over a 30 hand sample..

I know everyone is going to say c-bet! I chose not too as my c-bets were getting absolutely no respect at the table, and was planning on making a delayed c-bet or a raise on the turn whether I hit or not.

So I bet the turn.. then get barely over min check raised.. so alarm bells start going off. I was at a bit of a loss as to what to do on the river.. maybe I should have folded to the cr? That seemed weak though. I don't see him paying me off with Ax on the river unless he has aces up weaker than mine and he's obviously not calling with a missed flush draw if that's part of his range. His range in my mind was something like 55, 88, JJ, AJ.. and a slightly lesser chance of A5 A8 J8. Normally I would raise here.. but the check raise on the turn gave me a little pause and confused me.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) Hand History converter (http://www.learnhowtoplaypokerfree.com/convert/convert.cgi) Courtesy of PokerZion.com (http://PokerZion.com)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

Button ($23.85)
SB ($181.35)
<font color="#C00000">BB ($71.45)</font>
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($59.90)</font>
MP ($49.25)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, BB calls $1.50.

Flop: ($4.25) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks.

Turn: ($4.25) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $2</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $6.5</font>, Hero calls $4.50.

River: ($17.25) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $10</font>, Hero ???

[Machavelli]

I think he's holding AJ a large % of the time, AK, A8, A5 all are in there too. JJ, 88, 55 are in there as well but not as much.

I probably call here. Definitely make a note and use the info for later.

[Cocopops_X]

[ QUOTE ]
I think he's holding AJ a large % of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont agree, i think he will not be holding a jack here because any reasonable poker player would bet a flop like that to eliminate any flush draws. AK seems reasonable to me.

[ADK]

im potting turn. i like to reraise this river..... but i guess you can just call it down.

[elmopoker]

call

[Steam Iron]

Instacall

[stewcrew]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think he's holding AJ a large % of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont agree, i think he will not be holding a jack here because any reasonable poker player would bet a flop like that to eliminate any flush draws. AK seems reasonable to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

When I read this first I immediately thought villan had AJ. Look at it from his perspective. Hero is cbeting constantly, so if vil was prob planning on c/c flop or c/r flop. Its perfectly reasonably to thing that AJ wouldn't lead at this flop. vil now hits two pair on the turn and has no reason not to continue his sneakyplay. so he c/r. once river hits vil only has one hand to worry about AQ.
55 and 88 are also a possiblity, but I feel like AJ he the most likely hand.

[mvdgaag]

I call, easy

[sdunsmb]

I also call, easy - everytime.

[Dastone]

[ QUOTE ]
Instacall

[/ QUOTE ]

While I agree with this being a call, and a fold just about never. To call with out thinking is wrong. I definately think raising should be considered. Stewcrew's explaination is a good argument for why raising should be considered, but I'm just not sure if it will yield us a profit over the long run, since the range of hands villain holds that we beat is so narrow. However this is exactly the type of situation that can greatly increase one's win rate by being able to recognize the situation correctly for what it is. When we are going on imperfect information situations will present themselves, where if we did happen to make a mistake, and are lucky enough to get bailed out by the deck, making up value afterwards should be a top consideration.

[prodonkey]

I definetly considered raising, ended up just calling

[corsakh]

Its impossible to give advice in situation like this when you made several mistakes prior to the river. First you need to cbet. Second you need to bet turn, half pot does not qualify. Because you did neither, at the point he check raises you, you know nothing about his hand and the only right decision you can make at this point is fold.

[prodonkey]

Why is it all important to c-bet every hand.. I don't c-bet 100% of the time like most monkeys.. What's wrong with 1/2 pot on the turn.. if he has a flush draw he's getting improper odds to call, the only other draw I could possibly see this guy having is 9T and I just don't think he'd call preflop with that. I think folding to the check raise might be ok.. but folding on that river when you make top 2? lol

[dodgybob]

Shove obv.

Edit: Referring to river, obviously. Turn call is fine.

[corsakh]

Whos said anythig about cbetting 100% of the time and hows 1/2 pot bet on the turn giving the viallain wrong odds? /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[prodonkey]

He's getting 3:1 on a call.. 4:1 against hitting.. he's not getting my stack if a flush card hits so he doesn't have much in the way of implied odds.

[corsakh]

Are you saying you are not calling a half pot size bet on the river if a lush card hits and an average villain at micros is not stacking off here in you spot? /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[corsakh]

Not taking into account combo draws.

[prodonkey]

So 3 times he calls 2 and misses.. +6 for me.. one time he calls and hits.. -4 for me if I pay off every flush card for 1/2 pot on river.. what am I missing?

[corsakh]

[ QUOTE ]
So 3 times he calls 2 and misses.. +6 for me.. one time he calls and hits.. -4 for me if I pay off every flush card for 1/2 pot on river.. what am I missing?

[/ QUOTE ]

-2 dollars on the turn.

[spacetime]

Obv folding isn't an option here. Call or raise. (Insert cbet comment here).

Do you really see him checking flop, then checking turn knowing you are going to bet the ace? I am just having a hard time seeing what he is representing here. I think we are way ahead on this river, raise it to 30 to get some value.

[prodonkey]

he was representing 88

[grando]

minraise on the river cause you can fold to a push

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain is 16/6/1.5 over a 30 hand sample..

His range in my mind was something like 55, 88, JJ, AJ.. and a slightly lesser chance of A5 A8 J8.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't forget to include Ahxh.

If your range is that on the turn, then calling the turn is probably -EV (depending on how you discount your slightly less hands). If you have 70 more hands on the guy with those stats, I think the turn is a much easier fold (have not done this math in a while).

Anyhow, turn check raises generally are financially painful. I understand your desire to call after checking through on the flop. Anyway, bet bigger on the turn, and some of your decisions become easier. Turn check-raise + large size river bet = villain really likes his hand (unless you're playing me of course /images/graemlins/wink.gif)

[Dastone]

[ QUOTE ]


Do you really see him checking flop, then checking turn knowing you are going to bet the ace?

[/ QUOTE ] Doesn't sound too absurd to me. Hero raised pre flop, and didn't c-bet a jack high flop when checked to. He's been checked to twice now, and an Ace is on board. I'd say villain count on a bet from hero quite often here if he wants to trap again.

[avfletch]

There's nothing wrong with not cbetting this if you're not getting any respect but I think you need to bet a bit more on the turn. Your line looks really weak and any half decent player might see the A as a scare card and a good time to go for a c/r bluff. Make it $3.5 or something, you no longer have that worry and villain is likely to play his hand much more straight forward.

[Cocopops_X]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think he's holding AJ a large % of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont agree, i think he will not be holding a jack here because any reasonable poker player would bet a flop like that to eliminate any flush draws. AK seems reasonable to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

When I read this first I immediately thought villan had AJ. Look at it from his perspective. Hero is cbeting constantly, so if vil was prob planning on c/c flop or c/r flop. Its perfectly reasonably to thing that AJ wouldn't lead at this flop. vil now hits two pair on the turn and has no reason not to continue his sneakyplay. so he c/r. once river hits vil only has one hand to worry about AQ.
55 and 88 are also a possiblity, but I feel like AJ he the most likely hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont think he would continue a slow play here after our check on the flop. he cannot be sure that we will bet that turn and so would have bet a little to extract some value.

[fees]

RAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAISSSSSSSSSSSSSSSE

[Perk76]

I think the BB has 88 or JJ in this particular hand. Granted sample size of hands is small (30 hands), he is a 16/8. BB is not reraising the UTG preflop raise from BB out of position, and calling preflop is normal. I dont think the BB is calling a UTG raise with AJ in this spot, and if he had AK and maybe AQ, he 3-bets.

BB hits his set on a drawy board, probably expects a continuation bet, and was planning a check raise on flop, or check call, lead turn. OP doesnt fire a continuation bet with the board draw heavy, OP doesnt have squat a high percentage of time. Ace hits turn, so BB decides that he will go for the check raise again since the Ace probably hit the OP. BB leads for value on the river.

[OnThInIcE911]

The way he played this hand screams 55 or 88. possibly even semibluffing with T9. Only hands villian might have that you can beat are AK AJ A8 or A5. theres a decent chance of a RR preflop if he had AK but he probably would have bet the turn becuase of the flush draw. AJ would have bet the flop becuase any K,Q or heart is scary. so the only real chance youd be ahead is if he called your UTG pre flop raise with A8 or A5 so it just depends on how loose he is. IMO he has 55

[Bonesy]

I would cbet this flop vs this villain. I would bet a little more on the turn and probably fold vs the c/r. As played I would call the river.

[draw2aflush]

No way should you fold the river. question is should you call or raise and if you raise how much.

Calling seems like the prudent nitty play as the villian could easily be playing a set except the mini raise on the turn seems weird really weird and seems a bit more like AA up.

I really think the best play is to call

I think if you do raise it is a push.

[BobAllinSki]

I also call, a push would really suck and its only a small part of his range that just calls a river raise, most of it will fold or push.