NL50 underpair - Button raises pre, checks flop, minraises turn

[Triggerle]

First orbit.

EverestPoker Game #1323659548: Table Doha-18 - $0.25/$0.50 - No Limit Hold'em - 18:42:11 - 2007/03/29
Seat 1: BB ($95.43)
Seat 2: UTG ($47.50)
Seat 3: MP ($158.81)
Seat 4: CO ($32.97)
Seat 5: Button ($41.75)
Seat 6: Hero ($51.65)

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero[5/images/graemlins/heart.gif 5/images/graemlins/club.gif]
3 folds, <font color="red">Button raises to $1.25</font>, Hero calls $1.00, BB folds.

*** FLOP *** ($3) [A/images/graemlins/heart.gif 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif T/images/graemlins/spade.gif]
Hero checks, Button checks.

*** TURN *** ($3) [A/images/graemlins/heart.gif 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif T/images/graemlins/spade.gif] [3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif]
<font color="red">Hero bets $3.00</font>, <font color="red">Button raises to $6.00</font>, Hero ??

Can I peel one here? My only read is the weak raise pre and the min-raise, both of which hint at a suboptimal player. I figure I have 6 outs if I am behind but it's not certain that I'm behind.

[fees]

bet less than the pot, fold ur so far behind, he could have 1010 leaving you with a 4 outter, he doesnt even have 100bb, don't even think about iodds

[juanepr]

[ QUOTE ]
bet less than the pot, fold ur so far behind

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd bet $2 instead of $3. It gets the job done just the same. Fold to the minraise. I seriously doubt you are ahead, which leaves you drawing to 6 outs at best.

[losingdonkey]

minraise = strength
not many cards will save you now, fold

[Triggerle]

I'm kinda lost on the maths here. I am getting 4:1 to call the minraise and I'm 1:7.7 to hit one of my 6 outs. What do I need in implied odds to make this break-even?

[juanepr]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm kinda lost on the maths here. I am getting 4:1 to call the minraise and I'm 1:7.7 to hit one of my 6 outs. What do I need in implied odds to make this break-even?

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem is that you are not always drawing to 6 outs. You may be drawing to 4 (if he holds a set).

If you are 7.7:1 to win and the pot needs to offer you the same odds to break even. That is, the pot needs an extre 3.7, which is 3.7*$3 = $11.1. Do you think you can get that on the river if you hit? Either card that helps you makes a 4 str8 board. I doubt you get paid the times you are ahead. This also does not consider the times you hit and you lose or split.

[Triggerle]

My thoughts were along the line of losingdonkey (minraise = strength). I thought a slowplayed strong hand was more likely than a draw, which would give me good implied odds.

Your figure of $11 is less than a PSB, which is the least I would expect to win on the river if I improve.

[juanepr]

A pot sized bet is $15. You need to get called 11.1/15 ~= 75% of the time. That assumes you are never splitting and are never behind when you hit a 5 (TT and any 2 beats you). I doubt your are getting called 75% of the time on a 4 str8 board.

That seems like neutral EV under the very best assumptions.

[Triggerle]

OK, I'm convinced now that my play was indeed marginal. Just for kicks, here is how it went down (in white):

<font color="white">*** RIVER *** [Ah 4h Ts 3d] [5s]
Hero bets $20.00
Button raises to $34.50 and is all-in
Hero calls $14.50
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Hero shows [5h 5c]
Button shows [Td Ad]
*** SUMMARY ***
Board: [Ah 4h Ts 3d 5s]
Hero collects $81.00</font>

[Jamougha]

Very dodgy bc he could have a set higher than 55. river play is awful, cr ftw.