NL25: Calling for set value?

[whizzle]

Villian was an unkown just sat down

I called the 3bet for set value given he is deep enough. But his check on the flop smells like a monster? thoughts? tnx for the replies

Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
5 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
Hero: $37.40
CO: $25.40
Button: $1.58
SB: $25
BB: $31.46

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is UTG with 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif 9/images/graemlins/club.gif
<font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $1</font>, 2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises to $2.4</font>, BB folds, Hero calls.

Flop: A/images/graemlins/club.gif J/images/graemlins/spade.gif 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($4.8, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks.

Turn: 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif ($4.8, 2 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $4</font>, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises to $8</font>, Hero calls.

River: 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif ($20.8, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets $8</font>, Hero calls.

Results:
Final pot: $36.8

[Machavelli]

I don't get this hand at all. You hit your set and never try to get money in?

I shove this river.

[haz31]

Raise the turn, push the river.
He could easily have AK/AJ and think thats a monster
stop seeing monsters under the bed.

[Supwithbates]

If I'm villain I check flop with AK, AA, KK, QQ. If you lost to a set over set that sucks, just unlucky. You should be trying to get more money in on the turn/river

[monkover]

[ QUOTE ]
If I'm villain I check flop with AK, AA, KK, QQ. If you lost to a set over set that sucks, just unlucky. You should be trying to get more money in on the turn/river

[/ QUOTE ]
If he has a bigger set you have to get broke here, there´s just no way around it...

[whizzle]

why would u check a flop here with AK AA KK and QQ?

His reraise on the turn made some bells ring :P JJ AA have me crushed. i don't think he is reraising AK KK or QQ here. He would just call... It is very likely (given that villian is decent) that he has a set here?

[ocdscale]

I think villain checks flop (and plays this hand) with AA, JJ, AK, AJ exactly this way. You're only behind 6/24 of the time, this is definitely a place where you go broke/double up.

What does he think you have? You checked the flop, then put out a $4 bet on the turn. Maybe you're trying to buy the pot, have a weak Ace or KJ/QJ. Until you know what his tendencies are for min-raising, I think it's just there to extract money from the weak hand he believes you're holding.

[ama0330]

I think I have to push the turn here. Given that you checked behind the flop, he probably doesnt give you credit for the Ace, so this could even be KK/QQ. Its a pretty [censored] spot but theres a lot of value in being paid off by AK here.

I do think that this spot is a lot more marginal than you might think but Im okay being stacked here.

[fees]

Uhm, when your opponent 3 bets pf then goes dormant on the flop this should raise some flags... are you ever good on the turn when he minraise? Seriously how often do you think this is JJ/AA v like AK, AQ? do you think he would check the flop with these hands? Would he 3 bet AJ? I doubt it. So lets put a range on him? Say he can have [AA,JJ,AK,AQ,KK,QQ]? yes? Whats your equaty if thats the range?

[marvin_1935]

[ QUOTE ]
Uhm, when your opponent 3 bets pf then goes dormant on the flop this should raise some flags... are you ever good on the turn when he minraise? Seriously how often do you think this is JJ/AA v like AK, AQ? do you think he would check the flop with these hands? Would he 3 bet AJ? I doubt it. So lets put a range on him? Say he can have [AA,JJ,AK,AQ,KK,QQ]? yes? Whats your equaty if thats the range?

[/ QUOTE ]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,848 games 0.005 secs 369,600 games/sec

Board: Ac Js 2h 9d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 15.260% 15.26% 00.00% 282 0.00 { JJ+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 84.740% 84.74% 00.00% 1566 0.00 { 9c9h }

[ama0330]

On the turn its 70%.

Board: Ac Js 2h 9d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 30.519% 30.52% 00.00% 846 0.00 { JJ+, AKs }
Hand 1: 69.481% 69.48% 00.00% 1926 0.00 { 99 }

EDIT: Mine doesnt include AQ.

[VisualCSharp]

Man, this really looks like AA or JJ. My read is AA for the following reasons:

1. Strong 3-bet preflop from the SB. Usually JJ+/AK.
2. Villain checked flop and turn. Would he really check either street with AK/AQ? I think he would bet out, probably on the flop, to get paid by a weaker ace.
3. Villain checked flop and check/raised turn. What is he checking the flop with where he would check/raise the turn (which was a total brick)? A9s? Very doubtful, considering the 3-bet preflop.
4. The min-raise of a 4/5 PB screams "I have the nuts but I want to keep building this pot." A slow-played AK/AJ raises much bigger here to find out if it's beat.
5. No straight or flush draws on the board, so you can discount some sort of floating check/raise on a draw.

Postflop, villain might play 22 the same way but I do not believe he would 3-bet preflop with that hand.

I would check/call this hand to try and see as cheap a showdown as possible. He's shown he can check two streets so perhaps you'll get lucky and he'll check the river?

Another interesting point, although maybe not useful to this discussion considering the limits, is the infamous Tuff_Fish hand against EmpireMaker where Tuff_Fish turned a set but EmpireMaker flopped top set and slow-played it. That hand read almost exactly like this one.

[LOwrestling2001]

[ QUOTE ]
Man, this really looks like AA or JJ. My read is AA for the following reasons:

1. Strong 3-bet preflop from the SB. Usually JJ+/AK.
2. Villain checked flop and turn. Would he really check either street with AK/AQ? I think he would bet out, probably on the flop, to get paid by a weaker ace.
3. Villain checked flop and check/raised turn. What is he checking the flop with where he would check/raise the turn (which was a total brick)? A9s? Very doubtful, considering the 3-bet preflop.
4. The min-raise of a 4/5 PB screams "I have the nuts but I want to keep building this pot." A slow-played AK/AJ raises much bigger here to find out if it's beat.
5. No straight or flush draws on the board, so you can discount some sort of floating check/raise on a draw.

Postflop, villain might play 22 the same way but I do not believe he would 3-bet preflop with that hand.

I would check/call this hand to try and see as cheap a showdown as possible. He's shown he can check two streets so perhaps you'll get lucky and he'll check the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

1. usually true, but can also include TT, AQ, etc.
2. Checking flop, is usually a lower PP scared of the Ace, unless it's a missed C/R, you can't say for sure it's AA or JJ.
3. He min c/r the turn, this does not eliminate any of the possible starting hands.
4. People don't just raise to find out if they're beat.
5. True

I'm going broke here, set over set happens so rarely that the times you aren't beat by a set here, if you play it weak like this, you are missing out on a ton of value.

[VisualCSharp]

Hindsight is always 20/20, of course. If I were playing this hand I'd probably get it AI on the turn after being min-raised. After all I wouldn't have 15 minutes to think about what he might have. I realize set-over-set is rare, but since a lot of the action is happening on the turn, and not the flop, it is definitely a better possibility. Set-over-set is almost impossible to read on the flop because only two betting rounds have occured. With the third we can narrow villain's range. I just don't think villain is min-raising after 3-betting and checking twice with 33-88/TT/QQ-KK.

It is a very read-dependent decision though. That's why, with no read or stats on villain, I'd check/call down then make a note on how he played what he had.

[hunt1897]

Tough spot, if at the time of play you thought he had a monster, checking on turn is not bad,not good,(pot control). Call river pot bet, but not shove. Results?

[cb4mvp]

I can't even believe this is a debate. You have no reads against this unknown villain. This is much more likely to be AK or AJ than AA or JJ. I doubt he's check-raising the turn with KK or less and then firing again on the river, so more than likely you can rule these hands out. Regardless, I think we have to come back over the top of him on the turn and push.

[Perk76]

[ QUOTE ]
is the infamous Tuff_Fish hand against EmpireMaker where Tuff_Fish turned a set but EmpireMaker flopped top set and slow-played it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Any know where to watch this video again? I remember watching this hand, and would like to see it again....Tuff Fish, time for a repost of this particular hand?

[juanepr]

[ QUOTE ]
I can't even believe this is a debate. You have no reads against this unknown villain.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he has AA or JJ, then I am stacking off here. I'd probably re-raise him on the turn. For sure, I am not just calling the river.

[VisualCSharp]

http://youtube.com/watch?v=StsG95-zdjg

2:44

After watching it again I guess it's not really the same as this situation... Empire bet out on the turn, then pushed to Tuff_Fish's raise. Still fun to watch though. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[Perk76]

very nice...memories are great...

[DannyOcean_]

Has been said before, but pf call is fine imo, villian has a strong hand and you will most likely get paid if you hit a set.

Pls Pls Pls get it in on the turn or river. Villian has AK, AQ, AJ, KK, QQ, and you crush them PLLLLLLLLLLLSSSSSSSSSSSSS do not be timid with sets. take the money and laugh.

[boycalledroy]

Yeah its only for a buyin, just push and rebuy for god sake!

[Triggerle]

I think pre-flop is closer than many people think. You need to net at least $15 on average with all sets that you win to make this +EV. This is because set&lt;set and set&lt;flush/straight both cut into your 1:8 chance of flopping a set.

[juanepr]

[ QUOTE ]
I think pre-flop is closer than many people think. You need to net at least $15 on average with all sets that you win to make this +EV. This is because set&lt;set and set&lt;flush/straight both cut into your 1:8 chance of flopping a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

Where do you get $15? You need to put in an extra $1.4 into a pot of $3.4. The pot is offering you about 2.5:1 already, so you need to get 5.5*1.4 = $7.7 to break even. I doubt you need an extra $7 to make up for set over set, etc...

[Triggerle]

I go by the rule of thumb of 1:10 instead of 1:8 to cover for losing with a set (Sklansky recommends this in SSHE), which would make you break-even if you on average net $14 (sorry about the $15) from the hand.

Some people also factor in the times you don't get paid off and arrive at figures like 1:15 required effective stacks, meaning he has to have at least $21 behind.

Both methods don't make this a fold, but both are very close.

[juanepr]

[ QUOTE ]
I go by the rule of thumb of 1:10 instead of 1:8 to cover for losing with a set (Sklansky recommends this in SSHE), which would make you break-even if you on average net $14 (sorry about the $15) from the hand.

Some people also factor in the times you don't get paid off and arrive at figures like 1:15 required effective stacks, meaning he has to have at least $21 behind.

Both methods don't make this a fold, but both are very close.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK. Just remember to include what is already in the pot ($3.4) in your amount. This lowers the number to $11.6, considering the original $15 you got.

[Triggerle]

Yes, you need to net $14 from the hand. This means the pot must be $28+rake in the end. Dead money in the pot would dramatically improve the EV of the pre-flop call.

[kurto]

keep in mind that the fact that the player reraised hero increases the likelihood that player will get payed off if he hits.

[slickss]

Villain only has like $7.60 left, so the difference between just calling or shoving is small.

If he has any good hand he is quite donkey in any case, considering he is checking both the flop and the turn.

Push the river and hate his donkeyness if he shows a better set.

[RMLewis]

raise the turn, there are only two hands you have to worry about while many others you beat. You're going broke here vs set over set. But you're losing serious value by not shoving the river when you do beat villain