How's your SSNLHE?: 97s [Archive] - Two Plus Two Newer Archives

ajmargarine

09-29-2005, 05:04 PM

Here's another one. Play along in the hand, take the poll as you go. Poll questions are numbered in case they come up in a random order again. Just do them in order, 1-5.

***please note question #2 is on the bottom, otherwise they're semi-ok, grrrrr*****

.50/$1 NLHE Full Table

Hero has $168. Table has been full of loose calling stations. Hero just took a bathroom break and didn't get back in time to catch the blinds. He posts $1 in the CO.

Reads: Villian in this hand is a winning player, but predictable. His PFR's are always to $3 no matter how many limpers are in before him. A PFR in EP from villian almost always means a top ten premium hand. He always makes continuation bets. Less than half pot if he misses (usually), and half-pot or more if he has a made hand on the flop. He can be tricky and bet small on the flop, and then 3-bet if raised.

So far in this session you've seen him put all his chips in the middle twice. Once versus Hero, when Hero's set was good over villian's TPTK (his image of you is that you bluff alot, and you got it in on the turn). And the other time he made a huge all-in river call with pocket 77's on an AA876 board, when he was c/r'd on the river by a guy who just c/c'd the whole way and only had a made straight. Villian is UTG+1 and covers Hero. Here's how the hand starts:

Preflop: Hero is CO with 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif. SB posts a blind of $0.50, Hero posts a blind of $1.
1 fold, Villian raises to $3, 1 fold, MP1 calls $3, MP2 calls $3, MP3 calls $3, Action is on Hero and it's $2 for him to call...

emil3000

09-29-2005, 05:08 PM

Hey, where's the reraise preflop option?
You gotta make some moves man!

ajmargarine

09-29-2005, 05:20 PM

ANSWER RATINGS:

Thanks for playing along. Comments welcome. Answers are rated on a scale of 0-10, 0 being fishie, 5 being average, 10 being yvesaintish. (ratings in parenthesis)
----------
Question # 1 --

(5) Fold- Cmon, you know you wanna. Doyle Bronson'll be mad if you don't play this.
(6) Call- Probably a fold if you don't have that posted dollar sitting out there. But, it costs you $2 to call and the pot is sitting there at ~$15. You are getting 7+:1 on that $2 in a 4-person pot so far. You're in late position. Go ahead and play it, it's probably an OK long-term investment.
---------

Question # 2 --

(0) Fold- Did you notice that you have a double gutter?
(10) Call- This is a simple pot odds decision.
(0) Raise- Easy cowboy.

You have a double gutshot straight, which is basically the same as an OESD, except way better disguised. You have 8 outs. You are 4.8:1 to hit on the turn, pot is giving you 5:1, easy +EV call, as when you hit you'll make more on turn and river.

How do you get those odds numbers? 47 unseen cards (52-3 on flop and 2 in your hand), 8 give you a straight. Which means 39 of them don't give you a straight. 39/8 is 4.8:1.
--------

Question # 3 --

(0) Fold- You just picked up flush outs, and the pot is still giving you proper odds.
(10) Call- Just a flat-out simple pot-odds decision.
(3) Raise- Do we want to semi-bluff, when we do have proper pot odds to call?

Even if you factor in dirty outs that could give villian a full house, Jc and 8c, we still have odds to call. If you make calls when you have the immediate pot odds to do so, it is long-term profitable, no matter what the outcome of the individual hand.
-----------

Question # 4 --

(3) Raise to $70
(5) Raise to $85
(7) Raise to $100
(9) Push

Villian really likes his hand. It's unlikely he is going to get away from AA or JJ here at all and maybe he finds a fold with AJ, but that is sort of doubtful. It's not really logical given our read that he has any other hand. He's already been in the middle all-in twice, let's try him again.
------------

Question # 5 --

(3) 88- Probably doesn't PFR that from EP.
(10) AA- This is what he had, although AJ seemed more likely.
(3) KK- Unlikely given turn and river action.
(1) J8- Given our read, he's not raising that preflop.
(9) AJ- This is most likely given river bet size, but he had AA, sorry.
-----------

Hand results: Hero pushed, Villian called with AA, and Hero scooped the pot. Thanks for playing along, comments welcome.

vulturesrow

09-29-2005, 05:26 PM

First one I scored a perfect on. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

One thing to point out is that this sort of player is the perfect type to playing these sort of starting hands against. Well played on your part. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

djoyce003

09-29-2005, 05:31 PM

I don't think a raise is out of the question on the flop. You said that he bets half pot or less with nothing so on the off chance this missed i might try a raise here in the hopes that I get a free turn card. This is read dependent on what you think the chances of him re-raising are. If he's the type who might call the raise and go for a turn checkraise all in, I like the raise...if the chances are great that he'll just push to a raise I favor a call. I think the flop is the only debatable street....rest is pretty standard except bet size on river and that's just a feel thing.

directscooter

09-29-2005, 05:32 PM

Nice, also the first one I scored perfect on.
I don't think you needed to have that $1 posted to make the call worthwhile. He already proved to you that he would give you his stack w/ TPTK and you have a few others in already. I would like to see what others think about this, as maybe I am being too loose with some of my preflop calls in situations like this. Ok or a leak?

djoyce003

09-29-2005, 05:37 PM

definitely agree. I'll call with suited semi-connectors against multiple opponents all day long when i'm in position. This hand is a perfect example of why you do this....the overlay on them is tremendous.

ajmargarine

09-29-2005, 05:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think a raise is out of the question on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

With two players squeezed between us and the villian, plus with both blinds left to act, I just can't see raising this with my 8 outs. We do have immediate pot odds to call, and IMO that should be good enough. We are so well disguised here, I can't see getting fancy with all the variables out there.

ajmargarine

09-29-2005, 05:49 PM

Meh. I don't 100% agree that suited one-gappers are good hands to play in position with a PFR. I'm not completely on the other side of the fence either. Completely situation dependent I suppose. But, I fold these quite a bit except for J9s, which I like to play.

EDIT: Although I wouldn't fold in this specific situation as outlined in the OP.

xorbie

09-29-2005, 05:49 PM

Good flop to raise. Villain could just have easily have nothing as a good hand, and he'd be hard pressed to 3-bet on this flop given the action thus far. Also if he does call, at least one of the other limpers might call as well, so you're still getting 3:1 on your money and probably buying a free card. You also build a pot in case you hit, yuo'll have an easy as hell time taking his stack.

4_2_it

09-29-2005, 05:52 PM

Nice work, eventually I'll get one of these right /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Why can't villain have KK. The river bet sure appears to be a blocking bet since the flush draw didn't hit and he has second nuts (if my memory of the cards is correct). No way villain puts anyone on 7 9, so why doesn't villain push here with AA? Most good players would and villain is a good player.

wtfsvi

09-29-2005, 05:52 PM

Just because we have pot odds to call the turn bet, doesn't mean raising can't have higher EV. I'm pushing this turn a lot. KK-QQ are likely. Do we have a read that he always bets half pot or less when he doesn't like his hand, or is that just on the continuation bets?

Also, why did you think AJ was more likely than AA?

ajmargarine

09-29-2005, 06:00 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Also, why did you think AJ was more likely than AA?

[/ QUOTE ]

Only because of the size of the river bet. It's a premium hand that I can see him playing up to the river like he did. With AA, I'm thinking he's betting a big bigger on the river. Just a feel thing.

------

And you folks who want to raise the flop, how much are we raising too? Sorry, but my mind don't think that way with 7 people seeing the flop, 3 putting money in on the flop, and 2 blinds left to act behind me. Always open to suggestions though.

djoyce003

09-29-2005, 06:07 PM

i'm honestly thinking about something cheesy like a minraise, maybe slightly larger than a minraise. Really all I want here is to get a free card and bloat the pot a little so that if I do hit, it's much much easier to get all the money in. I don't want to be faced with a large turn bet that I have to fold to, and if there's a decent chance that i'll get a free card I think it's worth it.

My thinking is that anyone with top pair probably won't reraise, and a premium hand might be a little scared of someone that minraises a large field....your hand would look a lot like a set and it might prevent a reraise....the board is relatively drawless and your smallish raise would look like a raise for value. With all the people coming along for the ride, your raise is actually pretty close to a raise for value. Your hand is roughly 30% to come in by the river, and if you raise to say 20 and everyone calls, you are getting 3-1 on it. If villain pushes then the raise sucks, but honestly with the action I don't think he will unless he already has a set. Even if you raise, villain pushes and 1 guy calls the odds are pretty damn close for you to make the call unless you knew he had a set.

If I was sitting in villains chair with AA and I got raised after a bet, and 2 calls on what appears to be a fairly dry board, i'd worry just a little bit and almost certainly just call here and see what happened on the turn.

ajmargarine

09-29-2005, 06:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Nice work, eventually I'll get one of these right /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Why can't villain have KK. The river bet sure appears to be a blocking bet since the flush draw didn't hit and he has second nuts (if my memory of the cards is correct). No way villain puts anyone on 7 9, so why doesn't villain push here with AA? Most good players would and villain is a good player.

[/ QUOTE ]

I said winning player, not good player. /images/graemlins/smile.gif I would say this guy is an average player. The reason he's not good yet is because he is very easy to read, but that doesn't keep him from winning against the people who aren't paying attention. I don't know why he didn't push AA, or at least bet larger with it on the river. It looks like it is the nuts. Often though at this level, people bet what they think will be called. And this is probably all he thought he could get out of Hero, just matching his turn bet size, which is sort of common for some players.

KK? Hard to run that thru three players on the turn, and if his continuation bet style is an indicator of what he would do here with KK, I would expect a lesser bet, and maybe a check to Hero on the river.

wtfsvi

09-29-2005, 06:14 PM

Uhm, never mind. KK/QQ is not that likely, so calling the turn is best.

djoyce003

09-29-2005, 06:20 PM

great hand btw...generating lots of discussion.

4_2_it

09-29-2005, 08:33 PM

If you had KK in this situation, how much of a blocking bet do you make on the river (this situation comes up all the time)?

FWIW - I think I would rather be an average "winning" player vs. a "good" losing player /images/graemlins/smile.gif

I hope you put all these threads in one mega thread after you complete your series.

yvesaint

09-29-2005, 08:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
But, I fold these quite a bit except for J9s, which I like to play.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd much rather play 46s-79s than J9s.

ajmargarine

09-29-2005, 08:39 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
But, I fold these quite a bit except for J9s, which I like to play.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd much rather play 46s-79s than J9s.

[/ QUOTE ]

And that's probably why this is found in the answer key this time:

"Answers are rated on a scale of 0-10, 0 being fishie, 5 being average, 10 being yvesaintish."

/images/graemlins/tongue.gif

yvesaint

09-29-2005, 08:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]

And that's probably why this is found in the answer key this time:

"Answers are rated on a scale of 0-10, 0 being fishie, 5 being average, 10 being yvesaintish."

/images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Hahaha, I didn't even notice that. I think you should put "ghazbanish" instead. But I still scored perfect on this yet again /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Anyways, I just think J9 is too easily dominated, and you get into trouble too much with 9-high flops as well. Same thing goes with JTs. Plus, lower connectors/gappers are much better disguised, as shown by this hand - how does he put you on 97s at all?

ajmargarine

09-29-2005, 08:58 PM

I should probably clarify. I like J9s and I don't mind playing T8s and 97s. To get paid, you need someone else to connect too. You play 75s, get a flop of 962 for the same double gutter situation, who's getting a lot of money in there? Whereas if you got the J9, you get the bottom end of the broadway cards that everyone always plays, and you can get some play all the way to the river. Just a personal preference. Have no stats to back it up. /images/graemlins/shocked.gif

As far as 9-high flops go, these kinds of hands are played for straight and flush value pretty much only. One pair type hands need not continue. You know this, but just pointing that out to others.

The rating 10 thing...been putting in a good players name under that 10 rating like that each time. Just having a little fun.

4_2_it

09-29-2005, 09:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The rating 10 thing...been putting in a good players name under that 10 rating like that each time. Just having a little fun.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm just hoping I can get my name listed as a 5 one day /images/graemlins/smile.gif

DyessMan89

09-29-2005, 09:27 PM

-1 away from perfect. Damn AA. Cant dispute anything, good thread.

Skuzzy

09-29-2005, 09:49 PM

75s on 963 I guess you mean? Just aswell that wasnt the hand in question or you'd have made a bad calls all the way to the river. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

I missed by 1 for a perfect. I was sure AA would bet more somewhere in the hand.

beset

09-29-2005, 11:04 PM

I answered raise the flop but this might be a leak of mine.

wtfsvi

09-30-2005, 07:26 AM

</font><blockquote><font class="small">Svar på:</font><hr />
As far as 9-high flops go, these kinds of hands are played for straight and flush value pretty much only.

[/ QUOTE ] Allthough you're right that hitting a straight with J9s is probably slightly sweeter than hitting one with 57s, 57s is defenitly better against a predictable EP raiser. You can play 57s for two-pair value and feel comfortable that you have the nuts if you're hu against this raiser on a 257 flop. (Also, the pfr will get his money in with TT more often.) On J92 flops, he beats your J9 sometimes (allthough you should get the money in, of course).

4_2_it

09-30-2005, 07:33 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If you were the villain with KK in this situation, how much of a blocking bet do you make on the river (this situation comes up all the time)?

[/ QUOTE ]

Grunch

09-30-2005, 10:32 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you were the villain with KK in this situation, how much of a blocking bet do you make on the river (this situation comes up all the time)?

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

You make a bet that looks like you're value betting the nuts. I'd probably bet slightly more thant 35, but not much more. I usually go 1/3-1/2 pot on a nut hand value bet.

subzero

09-30-2005, 10:56 AM

Got it. Great post (once again) and nh.

Ojo_Rojo

09-30-2005, 11:18 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Hero just took a bathroom break and didn't get back in time to catch the blinds.

[/ QUOTE ]

I see your attention to detail is impeccable as ever.

thanks for these polls ajm.. keep up the good work. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

Ojo_Rojo

Mackerel

09-30-2005, 11:44 AM

Dang, I was perfect until the last question. I put him on AJ.... /images/graemlins/frown.gif

ericlambi

09-30-2005, 02:18 PM

Do you think his river bet was a block or a value bet?

I said KK because it looked like a block bet to get a cheap showdown. When an Ace comes on the turn vs. one caller on the flop, it isn't as scary.

amoeba

09-30-2005, 02:31 PM

I'm torn between a call and a raise on the turn.

given how he stacked off with TPTK though, I think call is better.

amoeba

09-30-2005, 02:48 PM

there should be a reraise option for question one.

Sweir

12-09-2006, 05:32 PM

I put him on AJ in the end, AA fits nicely too though. Keep these polls coming, they get me thinking through the hand a lot more than usual /images/graemlins/smile.gif

moving shapes

01-08-2007, 12:32 PM

I agree with OP.

I don't see why you'd raise the flop. You might get a free card on the turn, but you're cutting down on the amount of money you're going to make when you hit the draw.

MP1 and MP2 also might fold, which is not good. The more people in the pot on the turn disguises us and our hand more, and decreases the likelihood that villain will bet us out of the pot if he gets the sudden urge to do so.

Very nice hand

True

01-08-2007, 12:46 PM

villain could hold all 5 of the hands on the river

if he calls KK is unlikely however

Ness3

01-08-2007, 12:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't see why you'd raise the flop. You might get a free card on the turn, but you're cutting down on the amount of money you're going to make when you hit the draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol

ajmargarine

01-08-2007, 12:57 PM

An oldie but a goodie. My thoughts on suited one-gappers is different these days. I can't not play them most often.

moving shapes

01-08-2007, 12:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
lol

[/ QUOTE ]

Well i was talking about the minraise that someone suggested earlier.The most likely thing to result in that is a heads-up pot with villain, who might be more likely to make a biggish bet on the turn if it's headsup.

Thanks for the reply though!!

Matt Flynn

01-08-2007, 01:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Preflop: Hero is CO with 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif. SB posts a blind of $0.50, Hero posts a blind of $1.
1 fold, Villian raises to $3, 1 fold, MP1 calls $3, MP2 calls $3, MP3 calls $3, Action is on Hero and it's $2 for him to call...

[/ QUOTE ]

AJ,

This is an excellent discussion hand.

Just read this, so I'll answer the preflop question then go look for the flop description.

Against loose calling stations, you must make the best hand and win to make money. But with loose calling stations, you are likely to get paid off. The price is low enough given that you have four callers and the risk of getting reraised is low. Go ahead and call. btw, this is not an important call vs. fold.

Also, I'd include raise in the options out of habit. That's not a good move here, but it always pays to think raise and fold when thinking whether to call.

Matt

True

01-08-2007, 01:27 PM

if you fold here you are losing a tonne of money Matt, I hope when you say "this is not an important call vs. fold" you mean that "this is an easy call and doesn't need much discussion"

Ranma4703

01-08-2007, 01:41 PM

I might be spewing a lot of chips, but SC and suited 1 gappers in position are easy calls for me vs a PFR 90% of the time, even with no other callers. With 4 callers, I'll play them OOP too. Is this a leak?

Matt Flynn

01-08-2007, 01:41 PM

Ok found the flop. ;-) I will assume villain has you covered.

#2: Hero is a nut to do anything but call. You clearly have odds to do so and are drawing to a good hidden hand. You aren't taking this pot down often enough to justify a raise.

#3: You have implied odds to call -- especially since it's hard to put him on a flush draw given your description -- and so should call or raise. What does a $35 bet mean? Does it mean weakness? I'd assume he's strong and just call. If he's snowing so be it.

#4: Not sure why this question is here. You push. The pot is $198 after your theoretical call, and it'll be $85 back to him. Get cute in smaller pots, not in huge ones. Plus he's a loose caller!

#5: Given the betting and your description of his preflop early position raising tendencies, he has AA or AJ, about equal given he's got three ways to make AA and nine ways to make AJ (AA is more likely if all preflop hands are equally weighted). He should not play KK the same and shouldn't be raising preflop with 88, and certainly not J8. AJ is a fair raise there against loose callers.

Matt

Matt Flynn

01-08-2007, 01:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
if you fold here you are losing a tonne of money Matt, I hope when you say "this is not an important call vs. fold" you mean that "this is an easy call and doesn't need much discussion"

[/ QUOTE ]

True,

felson and I did all the math. It really changed my way of thinking about Small Cards and may well change yours.

Assuming you won't be profiting from steals, you are _not_ losing a ton of money by folding there. You are losing a little money.

Matt

Matt Flynn

01-08-2007, 01:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I might be spewing a lot of chips, but SC and suited 1 gappers in position are easy calls for me vs a PFR 90% of the time, even with no other callers. With 4 callers, I'll play them OOP too. Is this a leak?

[/ QUOTE ]

Fine to call vs. a single PFR if you can steal a fair amount of the time.

Fine to call vs. four callers assuming you expect not to get reraised preflop and it's not for big money. OOP makes it trickier: value is decreased, but still can be good for you if you can play draws well OOP.

True

01-08-2007, 01:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
if you fold here you are losing a tonne of money Matt, I hope when you say "this is not an important call vs. fold" you mean that "this is an easy call and doesn't need much discussion"

[/ QUOTE ]

True,

felson and I did all the math. It really changed my way of thinking about Small Cards and may well change yours.

Assuming you won't be profiting from steals, you are _not_ losing a ton of money by folding there. You are losing a little money.

Matt

[/ QUOTE ]

can you provide the math plz,

ajmargarine

01-08-2007, 01:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Ok found the flop. ;-)

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah. The poll function was screwed up way back when, and was often spitting out the questions in a random order. It's fixed now in the software. Note this OP is over a year old.

[ QUOTE ]
#3: You have implied odds to call

[/ QUOTE ]

O rly? How 'bout direct odds?

[ QUOTE ]
#4: Not sure why this question is here. You push.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because n00bs like to minraise. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Matt Flynn

01-08-2007, 02:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
if you fold here you are losing a tonne of money Matt, I hope when you say "this is not an important call vs. fold" you mean that "this is an easy call and doesn't need much discussion"

[/ QUOTE ]

True,

felson and I did all the math. It really changed my way of thinking about Small Cards and may well change yours.

Assuming you won't be profiting from steals, you are _not_ losing a ton of money by folding there. You are losing a little money.

Matt

[/ QUOTE ]

can you provide the math plz,

[/ QUOTE ]

Not yet. Sorry to tease. It'll be in volume 1 of the book.

Matt Flynn

01-08-2007, 02:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
#3: You have implied odds to call

[/ QUOTE ]

O rly? How 'bout direct odds?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes those too lol. But implied owls are more important.

[ QUOTE ]
#4: Not sure why this question is here. You push.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because n00bs like to minraise. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Then it's a great question. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

btw I like to minraise too. And it turns out it's often a good thing to do. But not here.

Matt

Matt Flynn

01-08-2007, 02:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
But, I fold these quite a bit except for J9s, which I like to play.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd much rather play 46s-79s than J9s.

[/ QUOTE ]

Me too.

Matt Flynn

01-08-2007, 02:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Question # 1 --

(5) Fold- Cmon, you know you wanna. Doyle Bronson'll be mad if you don't play this.
(6) Call- Probably a fold if you don't have that posted dollar sitting out there. But, it costs you $2 to call and the pot is sitting there at ~$15. You are getting 7+:1 on that $2 in a 4-person pot so far. You're in late position. Go ahead and play it, it's probably an OK long-term investment.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's a very good summary. It's great that it's close here.

[ QUOTE ]

Question # 2 --

(0) Fold- Did you notice that you have a double gutter?
(10) Call- This is a simple pot odds decision.
(0) Raise- Easy cowboy.

[/ QUOTE ]

Spot on save I'd given raise a couple points.

[ QUOTE ]
Question # 3 --

(0) Fold- You just picked up flush outs, and the pot is still giving you proper odds.
(10) Call- Just a flat-out simple pot-odds decision.
(3) Raise- Do we want to semi-bluff, when we do have proper pot odds to call?

[/ QUOTE ]

Good numbers.

Yes, we do sometimes want to semibluff when we have proper pot odds to call.

[ QUOTE ]
Question # 4 --

(3) Raise to $70
(5) Raise to $85
(7) Raise to $100
(9) Push

Villian really likes his hand. It's unlikely he is going to get away from AA or JJ here at all and maybe he finds a fold with AJ, but that is sort of doubtful. It's not really logical given our read that he has any other hand. He's already been in the middle all-in twice, let's try him again.

[/ QUOTE ]

These are excellently proportioned.

You are a stingy cove sir. Give us a 10 here. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[ QUOTE ]
Question # 5 --

(3) 88- Probably doesn't PFR that from EP.
(10) AA- This is what he had, although AJ seemed more likely.
(3) KK- Unlikely given turn and river action.
(1) J8- Given our read, he's not raising that preflop.
(9) AJ- This is most likely given river bet size, but he had AA, sorry.

[/ QUOTE ]

Great answer.

Awesome hand quiz ajmargarine.