NL25 FR: KK against supertight villain

[roll]

BB has VPIP of about 10 and PFR of about 2.5 over 200 hands.

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
9 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is UTG with K/images/graemlins/club.gif K/images/graemlins/heart.gif
<font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $1</font>, 3 folds, MP3 calls, CO calls, 2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">BB raises to $3</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $5</font>, 2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">BB raises to $9.25</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($20.6, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB is all-in $9.35</font>

Hero?


Also, when I min reraised preflop to 5$, and he reraises back, whats his range given those stats? The problem for me is I don't think his range is bigger than AA there, and if he flips over his hand and shows AA folding is the best option. I'm getting 6:1 implied odds if I call hoping to flop a set, if I shove I'm getting 2:1 and I'm a 4:1 dog against AA.
Can this possibly justify folding preflop given his stats and the fact that he put in the 4th raise?

[CanYouCallThis]

Where are stacksizes?

I'dd just call his raise preflop, and play this one for set value (I know, it sounds weird, but these stats are too tight, odds of AA are huge). I don't think ur minreraise has ANY use, except enlarging the pot. He only raises premiums, which he is obv not going to let go after a reraise from you.

As played you should fold. His 4bet is prob AA/KK/QQ, neither of the 3 you beat on this flop. Time to give up.

[rakes.a.beach]

PUSH PREFLOP. If his PFR was 0.5 over 2k hands then I'd consider folding. I mean, come on, he has nine bucks left. -_-'

[roll]

The effective stack size here is about 19$

When BB reraises me the first time (to 3$) why do you think there is a huge chance he has AA? I'm seeing his range as JJ, QQ, KK, AA, AK, does anyone disagree with this range? Given this range, there is a 6/(6+6+1+6+8) = about 22% chance that he has AA.

If I just call I let up to two more people in the hand and I go to the flop not knowing where I stand and, as you said, I am playing for set value.

But is a reraise really useless? I.e. by reraising (maybe not min reraising) can't I narrow his range further? For example, given BB's stats you really think he's putting in the 4th raise with JJ, QQ, or AK?

If I can narrow his range to JJ, QQ, probobly not AK, and probobly not AA (if he calls my reraise) OR AA or KK (if he puts in the 4th reraise) then doesn't putting in a third raise serve a very good purpose?
i.e. if I isolate him and he calls I can keep firing as long as the dreaded queen doesn't show up. And if he puts in the 4th raise I can let go of my kings easily either on the flop or preflop.

Assuming everything I'm saying makes any sense, I can go one of two routes:
1) try to play a multi-way pot for a set of kings
2) try to isolate and stack a guy that has a lower pair while trying to avoid getting stacked by aces

How can I decide which way is more profitable?

[roll]

If I push preflop won't I force him to fold JJ and QQ?

Pushing seems wrong because I think a really tight player is only calling with KK and AA.

[Genz]

He didn't put in the 4th raise, because you didn't reraise him with your minraise. What's your reasoning for MINraising your monster hand here? That he'll fold? If he is that super-tight what hands does he call a minraise with and what hands does he call a decent reraise with? Is there any real difference? And you still have two other players in the hand at the point of your reraise. You don't want multiway action with a big PP but one huge pot against one opponent. Reraise him to 12 and see what he does. If he pushes, you can start to think if this is one of the rare occasions that you have to lay down KK preflop. On this limit, I would never do it though. If he is the one who pushes, he is not unlikely to have AK. But he won't call a push with it.

Flop is extremely dry. Given your read, villain has you either crushed or you are splitting. With a big emphasis on "crushed".

[Genz]

And to give you a few numbers: there are 1326 starting hand combinations. 6 of them are AA. That are 0.45%. There is one combo of KK left. Makes 0.53%. There are 8 combos of AK. That makes 1.13%. PFR of 2.5 is more than AA, KK. His 3betting range might be smaller. But when he is playing so tight, he probably is willing to commit all of his chips preflop with most of those hands.

When villain reraises OP to $3, I think his range is somewhere around AA-QQ, AK (1.6%, btw). His reraise after villains minraise tells us basically nothing.

[roll]

I agree that the flop is a clear fold.
I agree that minraising is dumb here, but I think raising to about 10$ would narrow his range.

So my real question is how do I decide whether to reraise to about 10$ and isolate him or just call in hopes of flopping a set in a multiway pot?

[Genz]

I don't like playing KK for set value. And a K on the board will often be the highest card so you can't extract from an overplayed TP as you can with a smaller set. So you need a lot of luck to either get a flop of AKx or someone holding the case K. So I think trying to get it all-in preflop is generally the best idea with AA and KK on these limits.

And btw: I've been running card dead on tables over samples like this before and had nittier stats than villain. Don't forget that he could just be running very cold and doesn't necessarily have AA, KK here.

[roll]

Yes, I agree now that set-value is not the way to go.

Nice explanations, thanks for stepping me through all this.