Turn play deep stacked/history w/ opp, whats your play?

[ssdex]

k, here is the brief history between me and villian, he 3bets my first raise at table, i fold, he 3bets my second raise at table, and i shove, he folds, i double up against random player around hand 30 with nut st8, villian raises ~10 hands later and i 3bet w/ ak, he smooth calls.... scary flop, checked down and i fire 15 at river w air and he looks me up on a j 10 8 6 2 board with QQ......... on to the hand, villian is 30/23 over ~200 hands, he 3bets light it seems often, do you like my flop play and turn play?

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
3 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
Hero: $88.90
SB: $9.50
BB: $137.90

Pre-flop: (3 players) Hero is Button with 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif
<font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $1.5</font>, SB folds, <font color="#cc0000">BB raises to $5</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: T/images/graemlins/heart.gif 5/images/graemlins/club.gif 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($10.25, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB bets $6.5</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($23.25, 2 players)
BB checks, hero............?

[ssdex]

my initial instinct here was bet half the pot, the reason for this being it does two things, it pushes out airy type hands, if he calls i think i can limit him to a set or AK..... possibly jacks as well...... if he reraises, im probably gonna get odds to call...... if not i can fold.... I thought it was very strange for this aggressive of an opponent to check turn, it usually means nuts or air... thoughts?

[boycalledroy]

Check behind, if he can call a turn bet you are beat, if he can't you are ahead. Check it and play the river!

[ssdex]

i think this logic is flawed deep stacked aggainst an aggro opponent, sure if he calls im beat, but he is folding a lot of hands i might not beat if i bet, also, he is folding hands that most likely have atleast 8 outs against me going to river, plus if he calls i can limit his range, and my backdoor flush is probably going to win a huge pot on the river if it hits, as i dont think he is re raising a set here, an aggro opponent will try and slowplay that set for value and almost always donk off on the river.....

[bazza22]

Im not sure i like this despite the history with villain. I either fold or 4bet pre flop, flat calling a 3bet with sc's pre flop spells trouble for me unless you hit a really tasty flop.

Flop play is fine, i agree that a check is either air or he's trapping you for a c/r. I bet half pot and make him fold his AK, AQ, AJ, possibly JJ and if he raises big im folding. Interesting spot though, would love some more opinions!

[ssdex]

Fwiw, i think the call of the 3bet preflop 3 handed against monkey aggro villian deep stacked is an easy one, especially since i have position after the flop, I think turn is an extremely interesting thought and would love some more opinions.......

[thac]

Check behind for quite a few reasons.

- If you hit your draw, you induce a bluff/value bet from villain to which you can raise.

- Checking behind keeps you from being check-raised.

- You have middle pair, a hand that's likely good at showdown, but you don't wanna play a big pot with it. If he calls your turn bet, you have a 30% chance of improving on the river.. which is fine - but only 9 of our outs are good (He may have a set or higher two pair already).

[Machavelli]

If villain is willing to make marginal calls on river I'm going to check behind. If I improve I'm going to fire a PSB into him and expect to get looked up by AQ and maybe worse.

[ssdex]

ok here is the point i was trying to make with this post....... i think checking here is terrible deep stacked because of a couple of huge points
1. Villian is almost never check raising 10 10 or Q Q on the turn, any player who is super aggro gets all excited when they have the nuts and if he has either of these holdings i say he only repops maybe 20% of the time.
2. Villian is never making this play with AA or KK, hes too aggro and he will probably only check the river with these two holdings and this board.
3. Villian is dumping a lot of hands that i have no showdown value against, probably any 10, 99, 88.
4. Villian is also dumping a lot of hands that have huge draws against me........ i dont want AK or KJ seeing any more cards, it gives me the ability to take down the pot right here.
5. If villian calls, i know i am probably behind and it allows me to check fold or check call the river, almost everytime a heart doesn't hit.
6. If a heart hits, i am almost always getting paid BIG... if he has 10 10 or Q Q he is stacking off.... maybe with AQ and a few other holding as well.

if i check turn and re raise river, he may not look me up and i am probably not stacking him and winning a much smaller pot.

[thac]

The thing is though - you have barely any idea of how he plays postflop. You have one decent hand to go on, where he checked an overpair. That means he has to have more or less than that to bet the flop. If he has just overcards, you aren't gonna get a call from him. If he has a set or two pair or something, you're gonna get raised. I just don't see the value in betting here really. I don't think you understand that you only have 3rd pair on the turn. You don't WANT a big pot with just a draw.

[ssdex]

if i bet 15, i still have 63 dollars behind, 76 here creates way more fold equity then in has showdown value, the real value of the hand is when the heart hits........ remember this is deep stacked, and i am positive, no matter what he has, i am no worse then 4-1.... in reality, its probably much better then that usually, betting 15 to win a possible 63 on the river is almost always +EV, plus the tons of fold equity my hand has against hands that i am currently way behind, I am 80% sure he is cold calling a set and taking a river, which basically is like a fre shot at busting him, I think a check here is way -EV as you will win a much lower percentage of $ of the long run then if u fire half pot here.

[Vyse]

4bet PF.

I bet 15 on the turn. I think it's 60/40 whether to bet or call.

[ssdex]

Another big point, I want to play big pots in position, i don't think 4 bet is a bad play, but i think i will almost always outplay villian with position..... if i 4bet and he shoves, i am snap folding....

[thac]

[ QUOTE ]
I am 80% sure he is cold calling a set and taking a river

[/ QUOTE ]

Villain also knows you're deep and you're sick of him 3betting you preflop. When he's checking here, there's ALWAYS a chance of him checkraising you, a lot of people use this stack-a-donk lines on aggressive bad players because they know that the guy will bet when checked to. There's no way he's gonna cold-call here because he knows it's gonna be next to impossible to get the rest of his stack in on the river.

If villain's that dumb, then you can check and he'll still probably shove the river.

Also, you're not including the times when a heart will hit that improves villain's hand. I just don't like betting here for a lot of reasons.

[ssdex]

What flush does villian ever show up with here that is higher besides for AK hearts and A J of hearts, that he 3bets pre flop...... i mean he 3bets light, but not Ah 9h or worse light? If he has either of those holdings, i'm paying him, like every time. I am ahead on a heart river like 95% of the time..... if i check and a heart comes and villian shoves river, i am going to think a lot harder about calling 78 into a 23 dollar pot then i am calling 63 into a 53 dollar pot.... and this is nl50 against a guy i dont consider to be particularly good, if he does checkraise, its probably going to be a donky check raise like a min raise, which i have to call anyways..... i've been in this spot many many times, and if its a set, its almost always a cold call and shove any river, which is exactly what i want against a set.

[thac]

I didn't say the heart would give him a flush, did I? Your reading comprehension is funny. "Improving his hand" could mean a set, two pair, straight.. anything.

[centja1]

[ QUOTE ]
if i bet 15, i still have 63 dollars behind, 76 here creates way more fold equity then in has showdown value, the real value of the hand is when the heart hits........ remember this is deep stacked, and i am positive, no matter what he has, i am no worse then 4-1.... in reality, its probably much better then that usually, betting 15 to win a possible 63 on the river is almost always +EV, plus the tons of fold equity my hand has against hands that i am currently way behind, I am 80% sure he is cold calling a set and taking a river, which basically is like a fre shot at busting him, I think a check here is way -EV as you will win a much lower percentage of $ of the long run then if u fire half pot here.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is all great analysis, but I'm curious as to how you decided he just calls with a set in this spot. I agree that he bets AA &amp; KK here, but he may check a set on this partcular board so he can check-raise your AT-JT, 99 kind of hand. He may figure that's the only way he's gonna get any more money out of you unless he's planning on calling your bet and donking the river, which is a definite possibility.

From what I can tell, if he does hold a monster, then I think you're going to get check-raised a little more often than 20% of the time and in those cases where he does have a monster, it really won't be so much of an overbet to raise his river lead after you check behind on the turn. It would also be a fantastic play to make a huge overbet on a backdoor flush card since he's still likely to look you up somewhat light.

I would check the turn and overbet a river heart, call up to 3/4 pot on a card in the lower half of the deck.

[ssdex]

if you think about his line is 50% fold, which the way he plays this hand and as light as i think he is capable of 3betting i would say is a good number.... 30% he calls... ~10% of which i win....... 15% he re raises enough for me to fold..... the other 5% he re raises min and i call.... i consider this break even with 49 behind at this point as when i hit flush i am stacking him and when i dont i lose 14 more dollars.... even if you move his re reiase percentage to 25 or 30, the fact that he is probably folding somewhere around 50% of his holding is probably worth the half pot bet....... the reason i dont necesarily like a check is you create no fold equity for hands that are marginally ahead of you on the river....... its kind of a reverse deal, if you check you put the fold equity on his plate on the river when he pots with an Ak or Aj type hand and its pretty hard at that point to look him up with mid pair........ plus weak 10's, jacks, 9s 8's and 7's all which disappear by betting, will show up on river and check down to beat you.

[centja1]

i'm switching to your side now that i realize that this is how i would play 99 in this spot. nice analysis

[ssdex]

This is obviously a hand I have put a lot of thought into. I think players in much lower limits, esp nl50..... tend to be unfamiliar with the intricicies of deep stack poker...... because most people do not stick around long enough at nl50 to build deep stacks, but these issues are very important for nl100 and nl200 as you will run into these situations much more..... my experience tells me you need information here and you also need to drive out marginal holdings that beat yours, it is much different if i have something like 10 9 b/c that has more showdown value. A point i ran across by writing this i didnt plan on or forsee until discussion was the fact that you want to play big pots deep stacked in position...... very badly..... ok ok so here are the results of the actual hand

[ssdex]

*** TURN *** [Th 5c 6s] [Qh]
BB: checks
Hero: bets $14
BB: calls $14
*** RIVER *** [Th 5c 6s Qh] [3h]
BB: bets $112.40 and is all-in
Hero: calls $63.40 and is all-in
*** SHOW DOWN ***
BB: shows [Qs Qc] (three of a kind, Queens)
Hero: shows [7h 6h] (a flush, Queen high)
Hero collected $177.05 from pot

[thac]

Wow, villain is horrrrrrrid.

[boycalledroy]

I know how wrong this is but if the card that came down was the 5h or 6h that would of been a funny end to the story. Well you sucked out and stacked him. Nice play.

EDIT:: If either of the cards that thac said did come he would have forseen the future!