Overpair vs. bluffer, 50NL

[Jouster777]

Villain is 62/8/3 over 100 hands. My note on him from earlier sessions says "LAG...makes big bluffs early and shows to get action?
not afraid to make huge bluffs" He has been at the table about 2 orbits and hasn't done anything out of line this session.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

CO ($26.55)
Button ($49.65)
SB ($32.55)
BB ($18.35)
Hero ($154.30)
MP ($16.30)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, SB calls $1.75, BB calls $1.50.

Flop: ($6) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $4.5</font>, SB calls $4.50, BB folds.

Turn: ($15) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero??
<font color="blue"> Bet or check? Why? </font>

[Loc0Loc0]

I dont think he has a straigth, so i have choosen to call a PSB.

At least we would check behind and re-eval on the rivercard.

It is to early to say what we should do on the river.

[tarheeljks]

i bet b/c we are probably ahead, but we aren't all that far ahead. if he wants to chase w/overs or a pp, fine. if we are willing to call any river bet, then we shouldn't check the turn b/c the river hasn't changed our relative hand strength. if we believe are good enough now to call down anything, we should have just bet the turn.

[monkover]

I´m pretty confident you´re ahead too. The problem is if you check the turn and a blank hits on the river he´s prob going to take a stab and you just can´t call a psb on the river. I think betting around 8 on the turn is fine so you can check behind the river. If you check the turn what´s you plan? You can´t stand a lot of heat... I´d just try to get to the river because your hand has showdown value.

[haz31]

[ QUOTE ]

I´m pretty confident you´re ahead too. The problem is if you check the turn and a blank hits on the river he´s prob going to take a stab and you just can´t call a psb on the river. I think betting around 8 on the turn is fine so you can check behind the river. If you check the turn what´s you plan? You can´t stand a lot of heat... I´d just try to get to the river because your hand has showdown value.


[/ QUOTE ].
Huh??????????????? if we check the turn then he'll take a stab on the river and we can't call? Yet you advocate betting the turn? Why get get him to fold out random bluffs? Betting the turn just makes the pot bigger also which makes getting to showdown even harder.

I'm sorry ive had the flu for the past week so maybe I'm missing something here. But doesn't this exact thought process make check turn call river perfect? I'm sorry but your logic is really flawed here, re-read and think about what you've written.

Against a bluffer check behind on the turn, and call almost any river up to a pot sized bet, and i'd consider calling a push on a total blank alough from what you've said he has been sensible this session.

[tarheeljks]

even though the turn bet allows us to check behind on a blank river, it's not the main reason i'm betting-- just an extra benefit. our hand is good but vulnerable so i'm kind of hoping he folds.

[tarheeljks]

i agree about calling up to a psb, but i don't think our hand is strong enough to be calling down an ai here if we haven't bet the turn.

[Jouster777]

[ QUOTE ]
i agree about calling up to a psb, but i don't think our hand is strong enough to be calling down an ai here if we haven't bet the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]I'd rather call a river AI after a turn check/call than after a turn bet/call.

[tarheeljks]

i agree normally (in this scenario where your hand is good but not great), but he doesn't have that much money left if we have bet the turn. he's got 26.55 going to the turn. let's say we bet 9$ and he calls, now he's got 17.55 in a $33 pot. we've said that we'll call a psb if we've checked the turn (~$15 on the river), so why wouldn't we call on the river when we have better odds and good showdown value.

[haz31]

because betting the turn makes him less likely to bluff at the river with air, so he is going have us beat a higher % of the time, than if we check the turn representing weakness/giving up on the hand.

[tarheeljks]

i understand that the turn bet reduces the likelihood that he is bluffing, but in this particular scenario i think we can call him on the river b/c it is cheap.

[monkover]

I´m sorry! I meant to say that I prefer to check behind for obvious reasons (listed them above) /images/graemlins/smile.gif
Really messed up what i wrote after i reread it i understand that it isn´t making any sense b/c it apparently is stupid!
So yeah check behind on the turn to induce a bluff and call a blank o tne river...
Tnx haz...

[ofdabeat]

Funny i stacked someone on the same exact situation this morning, he bets 1/2 pot on turn ( i put him on overpair after that bet ) and shoved on my rivered QQQ he had JJ.
Was on UB 100

[monkover]

Another problem is though that habitual bluffers usually play very weak when do have a hand... So i´m not really positive that a turn check is the right play.
But if we think that he´s going to push the river anyways if we check behind on the turn, we might bet the turn for additional FE.

This imo is a very intersting discussion topic: FE on the turn vs. Inducing bluffs !

I think I´ll get a thread going about this... I´m kinda lost in this hand though!

[munkey]

His range is wider than a str8, much wider and if we check the turn he probably bluffs with much of his missed range -I reckon ~ 70% time he'll bet the river and go for a chkriase with the str8/made hand I feel.

Checking the turn also controls pot on a dangerous board vs a villan that may make a big river bluff bet/raise big on the turn. If the board wasn't so co-ordinated with str8 and lots SC/OSC 2pairs I'll probably bet 3 streets vs him -

though I recently have been going overboard with betting all the streets so caveat lector.

[Sir Winalot]

I think checking is way the best option here. Against a habitual bluffer you could get pushed out of the pot here any time, so betting isn't that fun. If he has the straight, you have 4 outs to improve. And by checking you induce bluffs like crazy, so I would check behind and c/c river.

[Machavelli]

[ QUOTE ]
so why wouldn't we call on the river when we have better odds and good showdown value.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the fact he called a strong turn bet on a 4 straight board means we probably don't have much show down value. Only thing we would be beating at that point is air (possible and in his range) but why not keep the pot smaller and check behind the turn?

[monkeymaps]

i vote for check turn call reasonable bet on a river blank I think this is the best play given villan.

[Jouster777]

[ QUOTE ]
I think checking is way the best option here. Against a habitual bluffer you could get pushed out of the pot here any time, so betting isn't that fun. If he has the straight, you have 4 outs to improve. And by checking you induce bluffs like crazy, so I would check behind and c/c river.

[/ QUOTE ]I agree with this. I don't think betting turn is wrong but I also prefer the check...esp. since he hadn't done anything out of line this session so he thinks his image is pristine (Ok, I think that he thinks that I think he is pristine...3rd level? /images/graemlins/tongue.gif ).

For those who said call up to a PSB on the river...the note said he likes "huge bluffs"...I would have called anything since I think he's bluffing more than he has a hand here.

Results: <font color="white">He bluffed ~PSB on river, I called, and MHIG </font>

[Big Poppa Smurf]

Basically the odds of you winning lots of monbies are much greater against this type of opponent if you check the turn and call pretty much any river than if you bet the turn and call a cr ai

[ama0330]

I think that the best line here is to check the turn behind and let him go to town on the blank river. A bet here feels very wrong to me, I just cant see how betting this turn is going to yield you any value. You certainly can't stand a raise, and betting here makes the pot too big for JJ.

As a side note, his range makes this very difficult to play given that he could have so many hands here, and given that he's so bluffy, you just cant ever be sure where you stand. I feel like checking this turn is pretty good damage control becuase it pours water on his fire, making it very difficult to extract from a set on the river without overbetting which we can easily fold.

What would be really useful would be to know what his capabilities are on the turn ie. if he is capable of floating the turn again with nothing. But then again, even so, we just get raised/called by better and fold out worse. I think I like a check here.

Really tough spot tho.

[tarheeljks]

i also don't like checking b/c you are playing right into his strategy.

[ama0330]

[ QUOTE ]
i also don't like checking b/c you are playing right into his strategy.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is wrong, by checking you are allowing him to hang himself whilst still allowing him to think that his "strategy" is working. Its not he who is being deceptive, its us. He thinks that he can take it away on the river by representing the straight but really he is just playing right into OUR hands.

[monkeymaps]

[ QUOTE ]
i also don't like checking b/c you are playing right into his strategy.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not realy because betting and getting c/r'd forces us to fold IMO

[Brian O'Nolan]

This is a super-standard check the turn behind against most opponents and call up to $X some %, fold for more than $X some % on the river proportional to level of aggression/air which is highly opponent dependent. I would be hesitant to put toooo much stock in these kinds of notes from previous sessions, as erratic opponents are just that.

[Vyse]

I think this is a very obvious check on the turn -- four to a straight, LAG now playing weak, vulnerable hand, pot control. Use your position.

I would probably call up to a 3/4 bet on the river, maybe a PSB. But betting the turn is really bad.

[Check_The_Nuts]

grunching....

your note is confusing, makes big bluffs "early", does this mean early in the hand? If so he probably has somethin decent on the flop.

"Not afraid to make big bluffs". So did he over bet push on the flop, or bet/3bet with air or something? Or does this mean he continues with his bluffs on later streets?

I think with his line stronger hands are definitely in his range, I'd look him up if he bet half-&gt;PSB depending on his timing and the river card....

baffled by the bet crowd, unless you want to get AI even on this board.

[0evg0]

betting here sucks donkey balls