50nl qq overpair

[danny8]

villains 14/13/6 (60) havnt seen him 3bet at all... im running about 18/18/5

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Hold'em Cash Game
$0.25/$0.50 Blinds
6 Players
Lego Poker Hand Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh/)

<font color="black">Stack Sizes</font>
rth: $13.95
BB: $79.90
dtk: $10.20
iu: $62.60
hfg: $56.25
<font color="black">Hero: $59.50</font>

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Q/images/graemlins/club.gif Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($0.75, 6 Players)
3 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1.75</font>, tydk folds, <font color="red">BB raises to $6</font>, Hero calls $4.25

<font color="black">Flop:</font> 7/images/graemlins/club.gif 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 3/images/graemlins/club.gif ($12.25, 2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $8</font>, Hero calls $8

<font color="black">Turn:</font> 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($28.25, 2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $19</font>, Hero...

raise the flop and get it in? or just call down.. or even fold turn?

thanks!

[prodonkey]

You're beat here a ton imo. Usually someone of those stats 3 betting from the blinds is VERY strong. I think I'd fold turn unless I really put him on JJ. He's not firing with AK on the turn again I wouldn't think.. he's prolly not even 3 betting JJ from the blinds, I just don't think you beat anything.

[boycalledroy]

Wow this is a difficult spot. Did you consider a reraise/fold preflop? I know it is like burning money, but if you did re-re-raise to about 20 the only hands I see sticking with you are hands that have you beat badly. At the moment I have no handle on his hand, and folding QQ here might be folding the best hand.

[HBomb]

I'm stacking off or raising on the flop, flush draw could've given him some outs but I'm feeling pretty safe at this point, I'd raise the flop to about 20 to see if he smooth calls or comes over the top again. If he does, I'd consider calling off being only a little over 100BB's for a standard 100-120 pot

[gopnik]

This looks like blinds steal situation. I suck at NL, but I'd get it allin on the turn.

[HBomb]

How do you expect to move up folding QQ on 773 flops? He could have anything and may realize that he hasn't 3 bet at all and maybe just throwing out a curveball to make it look like he's willing to call an all in after betting that much. AcKc is not out of question here either, and I'm seeing 1010 or JJ here for some reason.

[prodonkey]

14/13's are going to have a really small 3 betting range from the BB.. the guys a nit playing back at a pretty tight player.

[Chomp]

[ QUOTE ]
How do you expect to move up folding QQ on 773 flops? He could have anything and may realize that he hasn't 3 bet at all and maybe just throwing out a curveball to make it look like he's willing to call an all in after betting that much. AcKc is not out of question here either, and I'm seeing 1010 or JJ here for some reason.

[/ QUOTE ]


Disagree with this mate.

His 3b range is TT+/AK IMO, and I think on the turn it's TT/JJ/AK like 15% of the time or something tiny like that.

That said, given it might occasionally be TT/JJ/AK and there is already lots of dead money in pot and we have a 2-outer (!), I call turn like the dirty useless station I am an hope he checks river and we see JJ.*

BTW, if he checks river, it's more likely to mean he has KK and is worried about AA. A river bet is 100% a fold.


* Please note: this is opinion not advice - I have no clue if my thinking is correct here.

[danny8]

i hadnt seen him getting out of line at all.. seemed fairly conservative/rational.

He could be 3betting light thinking im stealing again... but once i call and call his cbet he has to know i have a strong hand... I just cant see him continueing aggressively without the goods.

when he bets the turn i think this is AA/KK so often, could be TT-JJ,AK/images/graemlins/club.gif but i think it rarely is.

I guess theres a decent amount already in the pot to possibly warrent a call? Have to call a river bet too though - the pot'll be just over $66 and ill have $17 left

In the actual hand i folded turn

[Xanta]

I'd fold the turn here. People with those stats simply do not 3bet light often enough at this level to justify calling down. Flop call is OK because he cbets with most everything that he 3bets with, but when he fires the turn again it really narrows his range.

[avfletch]

I disagree with nearly everything I've read in this thread so I'll start at the top and work my way down.

[ QUOTE ]
Did you consider a reraise/fold preflop? I know it is like burning money, but if you did re-re-raise to about 20 the only hands I see sticking with you are hands that have you beat badly.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's spewing to put nearly half your stack in just to find out where you are at. You don't know for sure how he will react with his various holdings and even if you're right and he only shoves AA/KK but calls the case QQ/JJ/AK then you're still screwed a lot because of the chance an A or K will flop.

[ QUOTE ]

I'm stacking off or raising on the flop, flush draw could've given him some outs but I'm feeling pretty safe at this point, I'd raise the flop to about 20 to see if he smooth calls or comes over the top again. If he does, I'd consider calling off being only a little over 100BB's for a standard 100-120 pot

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
This looks like blinds steal situation. I suck at NL, but I'd get it allin on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Did you guys look at his preflop stats? He's an absolute nit. There is no way he is playing back at you with a range that doesn't have QQ crushed and on the off chance he is playing back with a random holding then he's not doing it much and you can afford to let the odd one go.

[ QUOTE ]
How do you expect to move up folding QQ on 773 flops? He could have anything and may realize that he hasn't 3 bet at all and maybe just throwing out a curveball to make it look like he's willing to call an all in after betting that much. AcKc is not out of question here either, and I'm seeing 1010 or JJ here for some reason.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is just wishful thinking in my opinion. If he is throwing out a curveball then good on him. It's better to get out played for a small pot than to get stacked giving him credit for something he shows no indication of being capable of.

[ QUOTE ]

BTW, if he checks river, it's more likely to mean he has KK and is worried about AA. A river bet is 100% a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Given that we called preflop, flop and turn I just can't seem him putting hero on AA, would you?

---

I'm definitely calling the preflop 3bet. We're getting 2:1 on our money with a predictable opponent, on a right range and we have position and a good hand. We really should be able to play this profitably.

On the flop I think there are enough combinations of AK/JJ that it's a +EV call as long as we don't give him enough credit for the ability to second barrel a spot like this. A lot of players are capable of firing the turn with AK here though, knowing they are likely to have 6 outs even if called. My main concern is his AF of 6 means he's out there betting, raising and contesting a lot of pots.

Once he bets again on the turn calling is just spewing in my opinion. He's singing and dancing about his hand and we have him on a tight range. I think it's definitely time to cut our losses and get out.

[munkey]

I play it the same and fold the turn - AK/AQ / TT/JJ will usually get twitchy now from a nIT- I doubt he double barrels Ak/AQ so fold the turn.

If he is likely to felt TT/JJ then I would raise flop.
His stats seem to suggest he PFR or 3bets preflop though I'm cautious of this given sample size and you haven't seen him do this yet.

[danny8]

How would you play this if our positions were reversed?

he opens on the button, i 3b in BB with QQ, flop goes bet/call

do you check for pot control or fire again?

[prodonkey]

I bet the flop.. and the turn with QQ if I'm oop

[VPIP100]

I really liked what you said avfletch, I agree with everything you said.

I sometimes just call preflop and fold flop, but really depends on table image and how the table was running.