Top 2 facing river raise AI (NL50)

[CalledDownLight]

This might be standard, but I'm primarily a FR player and this is almost always a set in FR. Sorry, I'm a nit. Games sucked tonight and I decided to play some 6max, which I have <10k hands played. Villian seems a little aggro to me, but I think he was probably a little tighter than some of the others at the table.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

CO ($24.90)
Button ($45.30)
SB ($54.20)
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($55.50)</font>
UTG ($59.25)
<font color="#C00000">MP ($106.05)</font>

Preflop: Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls $0.50, CO calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero checks.

Flop: ($1.75) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $1.5</font>, MP calls $1.50, CO folds.

Turn: ($4.75) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP bets $2.5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $8.5</font>, MP calls $6.

River: ($21.75) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $14</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $45</font>, Hero ???

Thanks for answering questions from a nit.

[Abelardo]

I don't like the way this was played.
PF you can rise (I know I would), but I guess it's not too bad to just check but I think you will get more value raising, the hand would've played different and decisions would be easier.
Flop looks good.
Don't check the turn, you're giving hearts a free ride and you will have to fold to aggression if one comes up.
The river is though without much of a read, but I guess a fold is fine at this point.

[kayfish77]

the problem is the only thing calling our shove preflop is kk, possibly qq, overplayed aks, and other really weird holdings. why let him fold a ton of hands that are 9:1 underdogs?

[Abelardo]

We're not shoving PF, hero is in BB facing 2 limpers, just raise to 3 or so, if someone limp-rr it's time to dump it. Also 9:1 underdogs? What are you talking about? Other 2-pair hands on the flop? There aren't tons of them really.

[CalledDownLight]

Kayfish, I don't know what you're talking about but none of it makes sense.

[thac]

I definitely raise this preflop. You most likely have the best hand, and if they have small pairs you wanna charge them to draw to a set.

As played: Lead the turn again - the heart draw is there and if he has a weak ace or a J or something, he's not going to bet the turn and he could possibly draw for cheap if he's on the heart draw.

River as played, I think you have to call this getting almost 2:1 because smaller 2 pairs and missed draws are a decent part of his range especially since it was limped (his range is pretty wide).

[swearengen13]

CalledDownLight, imo you should have instacalled. you will run into sets sometimes but i think most of the time youre ahead.

and oh yeah, why didnt you raise preflop?

[CalledDownLight]

Part of the reason I was playing 6max was to reinforce the value of position in my game. I felt like I was getting into a lot of marginal spots oop. Also, I guess this is just some of my FR instinct that tells me not to raise here even though I usually play really lagtard (I'm running like 27/18 at 6max) and wanted to tone it down a bit. I agree that this is a preflop raise, just didn't do it at the time (would have always raised 1 limper FWIW).

If I lead the turn I assume I have to 3bet AI or call if raised, correct?

[bazza22]

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If I lead the turn I assume I have to 3bet AI or call if raised, correct?

[/ QUOTE ]

On this board with top two in an unraised pot, defintely. Its hard to put villain on a hand in this spot and im sure a set is part of his range but so could a lot of different hands, TPTK, lower 2 pair, possibly air. I really think that pushing or calling all in the turn is the best play here, irrelevant of baluga theorem.

[marvin_1935]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

If I lead the turn I assume I have to 3bet AI or call if raised, correct?

[/ QUOTE ]

On this board with top two in an unraised pot, defintely. Its hard to put villain on a hand in this spot and im sure a set is part of his range but so could a lot of different hands, TPTK, lower 2 pair, possibly air. I really think that pushing or calling all in the turn is the best play here, irrelevant of baluga theorem.

[/ QUOTE ]

baluga has no bearing on this hand

[lemming]

I don't see why he would be raising with worse than top 2... If you say "he was probably a little tighter than some of the others at the table."

From what I see in this hand, you're prolly up against a set. Limping preflop, he might have something like 66, then calling you down, as there are no dangerous draws, he can raise on the river and doesn't have to earlier on...

Of course, it's a bit nitty to always see sets in those situations, but it really looks like a nice value raise /images/graemlins/smile.gif But I'm guessing folding is appropriate...

Raise Preflop imo, bet turn...

[Xanta]

Probably raise preflop, flop is good, turn is only OK if you know he bets when checked to most of the time (ie doesn't check behind with draws or weaker made hands) river I call the shove and expect to see A6, A2 or AJ here just as often as I see sets.

[CalledDownLight]

The only hand I saw that ever beats me here is 66 and I couldn't put him on exactly that hand so I called. He showed a bluff with 10h2h, but I still wasn't sure if I made the right play. Thanks for the comments.

[Vedocorban]

If I'm in the villain's seat holding a set of 6's, I would put you on the flush draw the way the hand was played and I'd bet more than half the pot on the turn, and I'd certainly reraise your CR. His story of "I have a set" doesn't really add up, IMO. You also have to remember that he was willing to keep CO in the hand despite the flush and gutshot draws.

If I had to guess, I'd put him on some type of flush draw or combo draw &gt;50% of the time which didn't get there. Lower two pair maybe 15% of the time (you'd think he'd just smooth call the river with this hand) and a set maybe 20-25% of the time.

In fact, I usually check-call this river to get value from the busted flush draw.