AusDerBunker
03-26-2007, 11:21 PM
I got a IM from Thac venting about this downswing, but he didn't have the time to chat, so he just pointed me to the brew and I said 'UGH ... tough luck, but that 32s hand ??"
Still we didn't have time to talk and while sitting here, my mind wandered back to that hand and I had to do some work on it. I've collected my thoughts here and posted it, and I'd love some comments on it.
Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Hold'em Cash Game
$0.50/$1 Blinds
6 Players
Lego Poker Hand Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh/)
<font color="black">Stack Sizes</font>
SB: $23
BB: $108.95
<font color="green">UTG: $136.40</font>
MP: $184.10
<font color="green">Hero (CO): $108.10</font>
BTN: $83.90
<font color="black">Preflop:</font> 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($1.50, 6 Players)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $4</font>, MP folds, Hero calls $4, 3 folds
<font color="blue">Rumour has it that UTG is a solid multitabler, so given this info he now has a range of any pair, AJ+, KQ and maybe some suited connectors
Hero could have anytwo, but since there is no threebet, I will look away from AK, TT+ and maybe AQ, leaving us with small pocket pairs and some speculative hands like suited one gappers or connecters. </font>
<font color="black">Flop:</font> 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif ($9.50, 2 Players)
<font color="red">UTG bets $7</font>, Hero calls $7
<font color="blue">Villain bets and hero calls, this does not say much, hero could be looking at an eight o, but right now a float or a pair is also a big possibility also some kind of draw like T9, QT, 79</font>
<font color="black">Turn:</font> 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9/images/graemlins/club.gif ($23.50, 2 Players)
<font color="red">UTG bets $11</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $31</font>, UTG calls $20
<font color="blue">This looks small, so question is whether it is an attempt at a cheap bluff or a suckbet. Let us see .... the thing is that with villians range, 88, 99,TT, JJ and perhaps an AdKd. are interested in this board, while QQ, KK, AA also might be hard to lay down. So the only hands that are not interested are AQ, AJ and KQ and the small pairs, then there are the odd suited connectors, but actually a lot of there have hit as well.
But then again what has hero hit ? ... well an eight is still a possibility, but only QT makes a draw hit, so question is whether a raise really represents anything
Also there is a question of betsizing, is this half pot raise really scary or is it better to use big force and bet pot ?
<font color="purple">-------------------------------------------------------------------
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
1,415,436 games 0.250 secs 5,661,744 games/sec
Board: 8d Jd 8h 9c
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 57.305% 55.94% 01.36% 791792 19317.50 { 99-33, KTs+, Q6s+, J6s+, T7s+, 95s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 32s, AJo, QTo+, J8o+, T8o+, 97o+, 86o+, 76o, 32o }
Hand 1: 42.695% 41.33% 01.36% 585009 19317.50 { 22+, AJs+, KQs, QJs, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, AJo+, KQo }
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------</font>
Now this surprices me a lot, while writing the text above, I kinda had a feeling that Hero had difficulties representing anything, but if we look at Heros range vs. Villians range, then it becomes a different matter altogether .... Hero might hold anytwo, but is way ahead of villians range and I can’t see villian calling much here. </font>
<font color="black">River:</font> 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9/images/graemlins/club.gif 8/images/graemlins/club.gif ($85.50, 2 Players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets all-in for $66.10</font>
<font color="blue">And here is where it ends, that 8 kills imho opinion anything hero could hope, calling the turn raise, Villians range looses a lot of the speculative stuff and imo consist of only either pairs or some suited connectors that well ... connected.
While Hero only can win this hand by betting, Zeebo’s theorem says noone is laying down a boat here.
I say good turnbluff (allthough I'd make it slightly bigger, like 40$) .... Horrid river bluff.
The thing is that Hero might have an 8 and the nuts, but small pairs to not bet here, as they have show down value I suspect, so ...
<font color="purple">---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
8,465 games 0.005 secs 1,693,000 games/sec
Board: 8d Jd 8h 9c 8c
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 20.248% 17.02% 03.23% 1441 273.00 { 88, 22, KTs+, Q6s+, J6s+, T7s+, 95s+, 85s+, 75s+, 65s, 32s, AJo, QTo+, J8o+, T8o+, 97o+, 86o+, 76o, 32o }
Hand 1: 79.752% 76.53% 03.23% 6478 273.00 { 88+, AdKd, AJs, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, AJo }
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------</font>
It is becomming difficult for Hero to represent anything here and betting seems like spewing to me. </font>
Still we didn't have time to talk and while sitting here, my mind wandered back to that hand and I had to do some work on it. I've collected my thoughts here and posted it, and I'd love some comments on it.
Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Hold'em Cash Game
$0.50/$1 Blinds
6 Players
Lego Poker Hand Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh/)
<font color="black">Stack Sizes</font>
SB: $23
BB: $108.95
<font color="green">UTG: $136.40</font>
MP: $184.10
<font color="green">Hero (CO): $108.10</font>
BTN: $83.90
<font color="black">Preflop:</font> 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($1.50, 6 Players)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $4</font>, MP folds, Hero calls $4, 3 folds
<font color="blue">Rumour has it that UTG is a solid multitabler, so given this info he now has a range of any pair, AJ+, KQ and maybe some suited connectors
Hero could have anytwo, but since there is no threebet, I will look away from AK, TT+ and maybe AQ, leaving us with small pocket pairs and some speculative hands like suited one gappers or connecters. </font>
<font color="black">Flop:</font> 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif ($9.50, 2 Players)
<font color="red">UTG bets $7</font>, Hero calls $7
<font color="blue">Villain bets and hero calls, this does not say much, hero could be looking at an eight o, but right now a float or a pair is also a big possibility also some kind of draw like T9, QT, 79</font>
<font color="black">Turn:</font> 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9/images/graemlins/club.gif ($23.50, 2 Players)
<font color="red">UTG bets $11</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $31</font>, UTG calls $20
<font color="blue">This looks small, so question is whether it is an attempt at a cheap bluff or a suckbet. Let us see .... the thing is that with villians range, 88, 99,TT, JJ and perhaps an AdKd. are interested in this board, while QQ, KK, AA also might be hard to lay down. So the only hands that are not interested are AQ, AJ and KQ and the small pairs, then there are the odd suited connectors, but actually a lot of there have hit as well.
But then again what has hero hit ? ... well an eight is still a possibility, but only QT makes a draw hit, so question is whether a raise really represents anything
Also there is a question of betsizing, is this half pot raise really scary or is it better to use big force and bet pot ?
<font color="purple">-------------------------------------------------------------------
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
1,415,436 games 0.250 secs 5,661,744 games/sec
Board: 8d Jd 8h 9c
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 57.305% 55.94% 01.36% 791792 19317.50 { 99-33, KTs+, Q6s+, J6s+, T7s+, 95s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 32s, AJo, QTo+, J8o+, T8o+, 97o+, 86o+, 76o, 32o }
Hand 1: 42.695% 41.33% 01.36% 585009 19317.50 { 22+, AJs+, KQs, QJs, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, AJo+, KQo }
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------</font>
Now this surprices me a lot, while writing the text above, I kinda had a feeling that Hero had difficulties representing anything, but if we look at Heros range vs. Villians range, then it becomes a different matter altogether .... Hero might hold anytwo, but is way ahead of villians range and I can’t see villian calling much here. </font>
<font color="black">River:</font> 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9/images/graemlins/club.gif 8/images/graemlins/club.gif ($85.50, 2 Players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets all-in for $66.10</font>
<font color="blue">And here is where it ends, that 8 kills imho opinion anything hero could hope, calling the turn raise, Villians range looses a lot of the speculative stuff and imo consist of only either pairs or some suited connectors that well ... connected.
While Hero only can win this hand by betting, Zeebo’s theorem says noone is laying down a boat here.
I say good turnbluff (allthough I'd make it slightly bigger, like 40$) .... Horrid river bluff.
The thing is that Hero might have an 8 and the nuts, but small pairs to not bet here, as they have show down value I suspect, so ...
<font color="purple">---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
8,465 games 0.005 secs 1,693,000 games/sec
Board: 8d Jd 8h 9c 8c
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 20.248% 17.02% 03.23% 1441 273.00 { 88, 22, KTs+, Q6s+, J6s+, T7s+, 95s+, 85s+, 75s+, 65s, 32s, AJo, QTo+, J8o+, T8o+, 97o+, 86o+, 76o, 32o }
Hand 1: 79.752% 76.53% 03.23% 6478 273.00 { 88+, AdKd, AJs, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, AJo }
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------</font>
It is becomming difficult for Hero to represent anything here and betting seems like spewing to me. </font>