TP + FD vs flop c/3 bet

[sh0wtime]

Villain is unknown and I haven't been at the table long.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB ($44.80)
BB ($55.35)
UTG ($56.75)
MP ($75.40)
CO ($82.80)
Hero ($49.70)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls $0.50, CO calls $0.50, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2.5</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP calls $2, CO calls $2.

Flop: ($8.25) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
MP checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets $3</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $9</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $19</font>, CO folds, Hero ???

If we're calling here what is our plan vs a reasonable sized bet on a non club turn?

[Acein8ter]

Looks like MP has TPTK or a set(?) Either way, he's not giving you odds to call for your FD.

If he has a set of 5's or 6's, you can hit a K for set over set, but the CO may also have a K... Your kicker is also weak. I'd fold...

[sh0wtime]

[ QUOTE ]
Looks like MP has TPTK or a set(?) Either way, he's not giving you odds to call for your FD.

If he has a set of 5's or 6's, you can hit a K for set over set, but the CO may also have a K... Your kicker is also weak. I'd fold...

[/ QUOTE ]

Another king would give me trips and him a boat.

[LOwrestling2001]

if he has a set...another K will make the villain a boat and the OP trips only. actually you are getting odds to call for your flush...he'll be calling $10 into a $40 pot or so. On a non club turn...that's tough, he might blow off the hand because if he has a set he's gonna try and get it all in. I think you can call up to a 1/2-2/3 pot bet, but i'm lazy to calculate the math at the moment.

[Jouster777]

He made a stupidly small c/r with his set or 2-pair so he's giving a beautiful price. Call this 3bet all day.

[ciki57]

Call. Folding this is weak. You might actually already have the best hand + you have a good draw.

If he makes a strong bet on the turn and you don't improve then you have to fold i guess.

[Stronghands]

Assuming you're behind:

You're getting 4 to 1 to call when you're ~ 4 to 1 against to hit on the turn. Since he probably pays you off, I think the call is +EV.

On a non-club, non-pairing turn, you have ~$30 effective stacks and ~$46 in the pot. I he bets ~1/2 pot, you're getting 3 to 1 on a 4 to 1 draw, and have to take the rest of his money to justify drawing on the turn. If he bets only $15 (1/3 pot), you're getting your 4 to 1 price and can draw profitably to the river.

I think this is where it helps to know your opponent - how strong are his turn bets? Will he respect your call and block the turn, or does he follow through strongly? Could he be re-raising as a squeeze or because you c-bet too much and he suspects CO has the flush draw?

When you're not sure where you stand on the flop:

Even a min-raise will pot-commit you, so it looks like pushing is really the only raise.

If you push, it costs villain $27 to play in a pot of ~$75, so he's basically getting 3 to 1 odds, and needs to win the hand only 25% of the time to break even.

If villain could be doing this with the A-high flush draw, a stronger K, a set or an under pair 77-QQ, then even the A-high flush draw might call you thinking he has 12 outs (though he only has 10 outs, he's still getting a fine price).

The only hands the might fold to a push are the under pairs, and they're the hands you would enjoy continuing against. So, it seems like pushing is not the strongest option.

Since the math makes this a basically =EV play for the turn, I think you should just call. Check behind any non-club turn or if you like you can call up to $15 (unlikely given flop bet is $19) on a non-pairing turn and fold everything else.

If you don't like to gamble or have a specific read (e.g. this guys' implied odds are low - like he'll fold if the flush comes and you price him out of drawing to the boat), you can fold - but I think this makes you look weak since you chose to raise CO's blocking bet.

[BevillTheDevil]

good call if villian has anything less than a set, if villian has a set still an ok call. If we dont improve on turn tho probably fold unless villian throws out a really weak bet.