High Stakes Poker 2-13-06

[dseiler116]

Last hand of the night.

Farha catches KK, Greenstein catches AA. Greenstein has position, fires a nice bet (I think Farha needed 70k to call..)

Farha hits a K on the flop...man what a hand.

When's Hellmuth gonna be on?

[TStoneMBD]

awesome thread.

anyway im glad you posted this because this gives me time to talk about something i was thinking about during this hand.

after barry reraises preflop, i think its a pretty decent spot to find a fold. of course, its difficult and depends on alot of image factors but i think folding is better than pushing there due to stack sizes. also, what absolutely shocked me was that after farha took so long and said im gonna be sick to my stomach, barry greenstein asked him if he had QQ. i was really disappointed in barry there as i thought it was quite obvious farha had KK.

[Gator519]

he probably thought sammy wouldn't think that long about laying down KK.. from the way he's been playing /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[prohornblower]

It seems to me that Barry likes to raise or re-raise PF often, when he smells weakness. Since Sammy can be known to pop 37o, maybe Barry thought that he'd re-pop with AA thinking that Sammy knows Barry knows Sammy raises crap. And also thinking Sammy knows that Barry is highly likely to re-pop when he senses weakness PF. (Thus, getting a quick call from Sammy with QQ or KK).

I think if I'm Farha there, I insta-push with KK against Barry. Even though they were deep-stacked. I just don't see how he could get away from that. He can take all the time in the world, but the end result was that he couldn't muster a fold.

Besides, the way the hand was played, Barry could have had AK or QQ, IMO.

[Diplomat]

Didn't see the hand, but he might have said that to coax a call?

-Diplomat

[RussianBear]

One thing I don't understand, after outdrawing Barry on the flop, why would Farha (or Farhar per Gabe) offer to run it twice? I understand pre-flop, but why after he already had the advantage? Guilt?

[PokerPrince]

Get GSN already you cheap bastard, lol.

[Wake up CALL]

[ QUOTE ]
One thing I don't understand, after outdrawing Barry on the flop, why would Farha (or Farhar per Gabe) offer to run it twice? I understand pre-flop, but why after he already had the advantage? Guilt?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because in real life Sammy is quite a gentleman. He would never angleshoot anyone and probably likes Barry as well.

[TStoneMBD]

no what happened was that sammy deliberated for a long time and finally said allin. barry insta-calls and sammy with a disgusted look on his face says something like "aces right?". barry flips them and says "queens?".

i guess my perception of the players could be off as just knowing how they play based on watching this show really isnt enough. barry is definitely pretty aggressive preflop and while i see farha as the type of guy to want to be in every pot regardless of his holding, i dont see him as the type to reraise out of the SB without a big hand. i guess i also dont see barry 4betting crap. i would think QQ would be an easy laydown there with chips stacks considering since farha only had 12k invested but would have to invest 178k more to win 62k total. i think that makes laying down kings a really close decision whereas laying down QQ is easy. if im right then barry should have known he had kings which is why it surprises me that barry put him on QQ after pushing.

[Mano]

[ QUOTE ]
One thing I don't understand, after outdrawing Barry on the flop, why would Farha (or Farhar per Gabe) offer to run it twice? I understand pre-flop, but why after he already had the advantage? Guilt?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because there is still a 10% chance that he will lose, and he is risking close to 200k, whereas running it twice reduces his chance of losing his money to something around 1%. It's like having the option of winning 200k 90% of the time and losing 200k 10% of the time, or winning 200k 80% of the time with no risk of losing. EV is +160k in both cases, but alot of people would take the latter gamble to eliminate the risk of losing.

[TStoneMBD]

the purpose of running it twice is to reduce variance. thats all its for. if you want to reduce variance you should run it twice, 3 times, or 30 times no matter whether youre a 60% favorite or your opponent is drawint to perfect perfect. i dont know why barry wouldnt want to run it twice unless his bankroll is really that big that a 400k pot doesnt matter much to him or perhaps he thinks not running it twice gives him an edge in one way or another. perhaps farha will go on tilt (last hand of the day so this is unlikely) or perhaps barry doesnt like running it twice because he doesnt want to allow other players to reduce variance. if he doesnt allow other players to reduce variance they might pass up on slightly +ev scenarios that are high variance because they are playing too high to bankroll themselves for such edges. barry would clearly like that assuming his bankroll is huge.

[Groty]

After Sammy flopped the set, he was about a 9:1 favorite. Why on earth would he NOT be willing to run it twice (and potentially win twice as much) with those odds?

Am I missing something?

[riverboatking]

[ QUOTE ]
i dont know why barry wouldnt want to run it twice unless his bankroll is really that big that a 400k pot doesnt matter much to him

[/ QUOTE ]

barry has stated publicly that he doesn't do business.
and i'm guessing his integrity means more to him then 200K.

[BrunoThePug]

[ QUOTE ]

Am I missing something?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. If you run it twice to don't win twice as much.

If Player A wins both runs, he wins the pot, if he only wins one run he only wins 1/2 the pot.

[RussianBear]

I'm sorry, I thought he meant run in twice as in, new flop, I overlooked the fact that he meant run the turn and river twice. My bad.

[MCS]

For those who don't know (and didn't read it earlier in the thread):

Running it twice doesn't change EV but does reduce variance.

[gilbert]

[ QUOTE ]
barry greenstein asked him if he had QQ. i was really disappointed in barry there as i thought it was quite obvious farha had KK.


[/ QUOTE ]

yeah i was wondering the same thing. it seemed like when he said that he was being kind of fecetious and he knew he had KK.

[jaydub]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm sorry, I thought he meant run in twice as in, new flop, I overlooked the fact that he meant run the turn and river twice. My bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

You got to 900 posts without realizing this? Jesus.

[rageotones]

[ QUOTE ]
One thing I don't understand, after outdrawing Barry on the flop, why would Farha (or Farhar per Gabe) offer to run it twice? I understand pre-flop, but why after he already had the advantage? Guilt?

[/ QUOTE ]

to add to this, barry actually DECLINED a 2nd time AFTER getting sucked out on. what a stud. then again, did anyone actully pay close attention. i seem to have a faint recollection that sammy didn't turn over his cards until the river was dealt. was this my imagination?

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
For those who don't know (and didn't read it earlier in the thread):

Running it twice doesn't change EV but does reduce variance.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's an interesting mathematical exercise to understand why both of those statements are true.

[riverboatking]

[ QUOTE ]
i seem to have a faint recollection that sammy didn't turn over his cards until the river was dealt. was this my imagination?

[/ QUOTE ]

if you are implying farha slowrolled barry you are mistaken.
as soon as barry called farha asked if barry had aces, barry said yes then asked if farha had queens, at which point farha told him he had kings.

while he did wait till the river to turn over his cards it was immaterial as barry already knew what he had.

[rageotones]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i seem to have a faint recollection that sammy didn't turn over his cards until the river was dealt. was this my imagination?

[/ QUOTE ]

if you are implying farha slowrolled barry you are mistaken.
as soon as barry called farha asked if barry had aces, barry said yes then asked if farha had queens, at which point farha told him he had kings.

while he did wait till the river to turn over his cards it was immaterial as barry already knew what he had.

[/ QUOTE ]

picture you have AA, you say you don't want to run it twice, and your opponent says he has KK, but you don't see the cards. then a K hits the flop, and again, your opponent asks if you want to do it twice. you still sure about that KK? i'm going to rewatch the play tonight and get back to you.

[henrikrh]

[ QUOTE ]

picture you have AA, you say you don't want to run it twice, and your opponent says he has KK, but you don't see the cards. then a K hits the flop, and again, your opponent asks if you want to do it twice. you still sure about that KK? i'm going to rewatch the play tonight and get back to you.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not Sammy's style (from what I've seen) to angleshoot like this. Beside, as stated earlier it would change nothing for either player in terms of EV.

[rageotones]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

picture you have AA, you say you don't want to run it twice, and your opponent says he has KK, but you don't see the cards. then a K hits the flop, and again, your opponent asks if you want to do it twice. you still sure about that KK? i'm going to rewatch the play tonight and get back to you.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not Sammy's style (from what I've seen) to angleshoot like this. Beside, as stated earlier it would change nothing for either player in terms of EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

EV may not change making this decision prior to the flop, but AFTER the flop, i'd argure there is a huge change in EV. is this math right?

.02 x 400k = 8k
.02 x 200k + .8 x 200k = 164k

also, if the prob of losing event 1 is 2%, and prob of losing event 2 is 20%(actually less b/c 1 K has already flopped) then the only way of losing all 400 k is .02x.2 = .004 or .4 %. as it stands, not running it twice, the prob of losing all 400 k is around 98% making this decision after the K hits.

someone feel free to burn me if this reasoning is completely wrong(i'm sure someone will).

[dseiler116]

[ QUOTE ]
awesome thread.

[/ QUOTE ]

'Twas.

[Sponger.]

[ QUOTE ]
It's an interesting mathematical exercise to understand why both of those statements are true.

[/ QUOTE ]

*cough* nerd *cough*

[flub]

When they run it twice they do it w/o replacement right? It seems like w/o replacement it would change the odds in Farha's favor but with replacement it wouldn't change the odds.

W/o replacement, if Barry won the first one the chances he'd win the 2nd one would be half as much, since he'd only have one out the 2nd time. If Farha won the first one Barry's chances of winning the 2nd would imrove very marginally.

-f

[ QUOTE ]
For those who don't know (and didn't read it earlier in the thread):

Running it twice doesn't change EV but does reduce variance.

[/ QUOTE ]

[TStoneMBD]

actually i think it just became awesome

[Dominic]

[ QUOTE ]
awesome thread.

anyway im glad you posted this because this gives me time to talk about something i was thinking about during this hand.

after barry reraises preflop, i think its a pretty decent spot to find a fold. of course, its difficult and depends on alot of image factors but i think folding is better than pushing there due to stack sizes. also, what absolutely shocked me was that after farha took so long and said im gonna be sick to my stomach, barry greenstein asked him if he had QQ. i was really disappointed in barry there as i thought it was quite obvious farha had KK.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think QQ was a GREAT read, because 99% of the time if anyone (cluding one of those pros) has KK, he's not going to agonize over the call. He'll just push - if he's up against AA, thems the breaks. QQ makes much more sense here.

[DeathDonkey]

I disagree - it was the last hand of the night and there hadn't been any preflop action like that the entire day. Sammy isn't a holdem god but I think he gets away from QQ pretty easily there.

-DeathDonkey

[rageotones]

[ QUOTE ]
I disagree - it was the last hand of the night and there hadn't been any preflop action like that the entire day. Sammy isn't a holdem god but I think he gets away from QQ pretty easily there.

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

we can't be sure GSN showed enough hands for us to conclude that statement.

[MikeSmith]

[ QUOTE ]
It seems to me that Barry likes to raise or re-raise PF often, when he smells weakness. Since Sammy can be known to pop 37o, maybe Barry thought that he'd re-pop with AA thinking that Sammy knows Barry knows Sammy raises crap. And also thinking Sammy knows that Barry is highly likely to re-pop when he senses weakness PF. (Thus, getting a quick call from Sammy with QQ or KK).

I think if I'm Farha there, I insta-push with KK against Barry. Even though they were deep-stacked. I just don't see how he could get away from that. He can take all the time in the world, but the end result was that he couldn't muster a fold.

Besides, the way the hand was played, Barry could have had AK or QQ, IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

Insta-pushing is silly, only AA is calling.