NL50 - Flush Draw

[Nibster]

Villian is 45/25/7.7 after 70 hands. I just doubled up against him 2 hands before this one. He went all in the next hand with a pair of fours and won. I'm guessing he's on tilt.

Should I call his AI?

Edit: Also, I have 100BB's he has 27BB's.


Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Hold'em Cash Game
$0.25/$0.50 Blinds
5 Players
Lego Poker Hand Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh/)

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Q/images/graemlins/club.gif A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif ($0.75, 5 Players)
Hero raises to $1.75, CO folds, BTN folds, SB calls $1.50, BB folds

<font color="black">Flop:</font> 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif ($4, 2 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $3, SB raises all-in to $32.60, Hero ?

[Bramsterdam]

No, wait for a better spot.

[Fiksdal]

[ QUOTE ]
wait for a better spot

[/ QUOTE ]
What is this argument I hear all the time? Do you by it mean, that calling this push is -EV? Or that another situation with a higher EV will arise later?

[marvin_1935]

[ QUOTE ]
No, wait for a better spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

fiksdal makes a good point. either calling the ai is ev or it's not. just because a situation later in the session will be MORE ev, doesn't diminish the ev of this situation.

Edit: with villain's stats like that i snap call.

[Hoffma]

If you can guarantee he's holding air, calling is +EV. You're even money against one pair, and an underdog to any other made hand. It's entirely true, there are much better spots than this.

[Fiksdal]

[ QUOTE ]

there are much better spots than this.


[/ QUOTE ]

wtf? If this very spot is +EV, then we GO.

[marvin_1935]

well, ldo there are better spots, but if it's ev+ it's ev+

this villain is so bad i can't even put him on a range, but he is shoving worse FDs alot of the time. huge ai's from spaztards do not equal strength

[Hoffma]

[ QUOTE ]
wtf? If this very spot is +EV, then we GO.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree. Is he holding air? If so, then it's +EV, call call call call call. Otherwise, you've either got a teeny tiny edge (very very marginally +EV), no edge at all (0 EV), or you're an underdog (-EV). So when you ask over and over, "Is this +EV?" I must ask in reponse, "Is he holding air?" Because that's the ONLY situation I can come up with in pokerstove where you are +EV to call.

[marvin_1935]

[ QUOTE ]
Villian is 45/25/7.7

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm guessing he's on tilt.

[/ QUOTE ]

vs villain's RANGE (which is made up mostly of 1 pair hand and worse draws) we are hugely ev+.

[ QUOTE ]
You're even money against one pair

[/ QUOTE ]

yes we have even equity vs 88, but we are not getting even money on our call, so vs 88 (one pair hands) calling is ev+

[Hoffma]

Let me put it this way. If his air hand is flush drawing, you'll beat him with your Ad. His best possible air hand is straight drawing.

[ QUOTE ]
11,880 games 0.005 secs 2,376,000 games/sec

Board: 2d 7d 6d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 69.520% 69.52% 00.00% 8259 0.00 { AdQc }
Hand 1: 30.480% 30.48% 00.00% 3621 0.00 { 54o }

[/ QUOTE ]

Calling is +EV.

If he hit bottom pair, it would look like this.

[ QUOTE ]
8,910 games 0.005 secs 1,782,000 games/sec

Board: 2d 7d 6d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.404% 50.40% 00.00% 4491 0.00 { AdQc }
Hand 1: 49.596% 49.60% 00.00% 4419 0.00 { T2o }

[/ QUOTE ]

50.404 vs 49.596 is +EV, sure. If you made this call every time, you would make theoretical money over time. Over a really really long damned time.

To compare, here's you against top pair:

[ QUOTE ]
8,910 games 0.005 secs 1,782,000 games/sec

Board: 2d 7d 6d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.495% 49.49% 00.00% 4410 0.00 { AdQc }
Hand 1: 50.505% 50.51% 00.00% 4500 0.00 { T7o }

[/ QUOTE ]

Anybody want to get creative and stove some more results for this situation? I've tried to concoct a +EV situation for the hero, but I can't seem to do it without putting the villain on air. I think it's a clear fold.

[Hoffma]

[ QUOTE ]
yes we have even equity vs 88, but we are not getting even money on our call, so vs 88 (one pair hands) calling is ev+

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm not quite thinking about this situation in this fashion, so I may have a leak. I'm generally not looking at the money in the pot and thinking, "There's money in the pot, and that makes calling a shove on a coinflip okay." Leaky?

[marvin_1935]

ok, 2 things:

1) we'll never be able to put villains on 1 hand so we need to put them on ranges. if we take the range you made we get:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

29,700 games 0.005 secs 5,940,000 games/sec

Board: 2d 7d 6d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 57.778% 57.78% 00.00% 17160 0.00 { AdQc }
Hand 1: 42.222% 42.22% 00.00% 12540 0.00 { T7o, T2o, 54o }

2) after we see our equity, we need to look at pot odds:

pot= 4+3+33=40
hero must call 30

expected value= (40*.57)-(30*.43)=9.9

[Hoffma]

Excellent, thank you for explaining that.