NL50 - boat up on the river - betsizing

[Everlong]

I am certain I have the best hand. What is your bid here regarding river bet and why?

I have some ideas of my own here but I'd like to see what you guys think first.

Poker Stars
No Limit Hold'em Cash Game
$0.25/$0.50 Blinds
6 Players
Lego Poker Hand Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh/)

<font color="black">Stack Sizes</font>
<font color="black">SB: $54.90</font>
<font color="green">Hero (BB): $50</font>
<font color="green">UTG: $44.25</font>
<font color="black">MP: $50.75</font>
<font color="black">CO: $61.90</font>
BTN: $48.25

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($0.75, 6 Players)
UTG calls $0.50, MP calls $0.50, CO calls $0.50, BTN folds, SB calls $0.25, Hero checks

<font color="black">Flop:</font> 2/images/graemlins/club.gif 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif T/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($2.50, 5 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $2</font>, UTG calls $2, 3 folds

<font color="black">Turn:</font> Q/images/graemlins/club.gif ($6.50, 2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $4</font>, UTG calls $4

<font color="black">River:</font> T/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($14.50, 2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets ?

[Jouster777]

There are no likely smallish made hands to extract from. I think you can play him solely for trips or better so I push and pray he has a straight or lower boat. Trips will call enough too.

BTW, your Star's pic is intimidating.

[Fiksdal]

I'd like to hear some thoughts on shoving this river.

[Sir Winalot]

I'd probably go for something around $10 and pray he will call with a Q or whatever. I'm betting only 2/3-pot because it's a limped pot and villains range looks like [censored] to me. If he has a real hand all the money is going in anyway.

[Machavelli]

bets 8.

[tw0please]

If he's moderately aggressive, I fake block for 7-8. Against a loose/passive I imagine overbet shove would work well since you only need to get called 22% of the time to do better than than a $8 bet.

[Triggerle]

Sklansky says that if there is no typical second best hand that would call a small bet then pushing is better. A huge overbet has the same effect on these weak hands (they fold) but in the odd chance that villian slowplayed a monster you cash in big.

I would add to that that at uNL huge overbets are frequently seen as a bluff and some opponents are more likely to call an overbet than a regular one.

So the only question is if there are hands that villian could have that call a small bet.

I think many Ts are in villian's range, although unlikely as 3 Ts are accounted for. These hands would call a small value bet. However, they might call a push, too.

Hands like K9 A9 would be consistent with villian's play much more than any Q. These hands probably won't call any value bet. Same for small pocket pairs.

[Everlong]

[ QUOTE ]
There are no likely smallish made hands to extract from. I think you can play him solely for trips or better so I push and pray he has a straight or lower boat. Trips will call enough too.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd like to hear some thoughts on shoving this river.

[/ QUOTE ]

My thoughts are along these lines as well:

Villain will either fold regardless of what we bet - or he had either a ten on the flop or made some sort of straight on the turn. I lean towards a shove.

Results in white:
<font color="white">
FWIW villain was your average 20/13 TAG and instacalled a PSB on the river with AT</font>

[matrix]

push.

Tx will call and you beat every single T out there.

unless villain is very aggro he's never raising this river without a boat - and a boat will always call a push.

He might even decide you are bluffing and call with 2pair or AQ.

I think if he has a T he calls a push at least 70% of the time - you are leaving a ton of value on the table trying to work out the best size to bet to get value from KQ J9 and the few other small hands he might call a value bet with but would fold to a push.

Almost nobody folds rivered trips here.

[VPIP100]

I thought about shoving when I saw this hand,

then I realised I almost never shove, I think its a small leak of mine.

Great post matrix and triggerle!

[thac]

I usually bet $16 and obviously call a shove. The overbet push screams nuts to any smart player, but they usually call a psb with a lot of hands.

[eigenvalue]

I like to bet 1/3 of the pot in these situations. Reasons:
(a) If Villain has at least caught a little bit, he might call me because of the pot odds but he might fold to bets that are close to the pot size
(b) Donks like to bluff sometimes and may see my bet as a weak play where I'm not sure what to do. They might reraise me to exploit my weakness.
(c) If Villain has TP or the other T, he might be inclined to reraise my tiny bet.

These tiny little bets work out good for me in the long run. I like to make them as testbets in other situations, too. So even observant opponents have a hard time to figure out wheter this bet is a sign of weakness or incredible strength.