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View Full Version : nl25: KK fold flop?


RMLewis
03-26-2007, 01:13 AM
villain has been relatively quiet this session
Absolute Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
6 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
UTG: $9.25
UTG+1: $7.95
NYYRico38: $30
Button: $44.95
SB: $10.70
BB: $10.05

Pre-flop: (6 players) NYYRico38 is CO with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif K/images/graemlins/spade.gif
UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, <font color="#cc0000">NYYRico38 raises to $1</font>, Button calls, 2 folds, UTG calls.

Flop: Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif T/images/graemlins/heart.gif 3/images/graemlins/club.gif ($3.35, 3 players)
UTG checks, <font color="#cc0000">NYYRico38 bets $3.25</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Button raises all-in $43.95</font>, UTG folds, NYYRico38 folds.
Uncalled bets: $40.7 returned to Button.

Results:
Final pot: $9.85

Dr_Doctr
03-26-2007, 01:57 AM
I think this is a clear fold without some kind of read. I wouldn't like it but I'd fold against an unknown and make a note. It's such a huge overbet - very possibly a big draw like J9 or KJ of hearts. Problem is you're almost exactly even money with J9H and a 55-45 dog against KJH. You're a big dog against any made hands he could have. Almost 3-1 against if he has Q10, even without a heart and about 9-1 against both a set or AA. The huge overbet screams combo draw, against which you are, at best, even money. You are drawing very thin against any legitimate hand with which for whatever reason he could make this play (possibly scared of draws himself - maybe inexperienced and panicked with a big hand). The absolute best-case scenario would be for him to make this play with a non-combo draw. But I don't like calling off a deep stack on this possibility. Pretty standard fold I think.

Pirelli
03-26-2007, 02:51 AM
I don't think villain ever plays a set like this. It makes no sense. I would call and expect to see draws or JJ/AQ/AT type hands.

Marshall28
03-26-2007, 02:56 AM
you cant ever fold in this situation at 25nl. expect to see aq/kq, j9/jk, and FD extremely often. you are ahead here too much of the time to give it up