River decision against a rock

[flair1239]

over 50 hands on the HUD 12%VPIP, 5% PFR, had been to showdown 5-times and won them all.

Also actually seemed to play like a rock, usually folding the flop, I think everytime he went past the flop, he went to showdown.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

SB ($73.90)
Hero ($58.40)
UTG ($51.60)
MP ($38.25)
Button ($40.05)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/diamond.gif, 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/heart.gif.
[color=#666666]1 fold</font>, MP calls $0.50, Button calls $0.50, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: ($2) 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/diamond.gif, 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/spade.gif, 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/club.gif [color=#0000FF](4 players)</font>
SB checks, [color=#CC3333]Hero bets $1</font>, [color=#CC3333]MP raises to $2</font>, Button folds, SB folds, Hero calls $1.

Turn: ($6) Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/diamond.gif [color=#0000FF](2 players)</font>
Hero checks, [color=#CC3333]MP bets $3</font>, Hero calls $3.

River: ($12) Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/club.gif [color=#0000FF](2 players)</font>
[color=#CC3333]Hero bets $4</font>, [color=#CC3333]MP raises to $32.75</font>, Hero...

[the machine]

50 hands isnt enough to make stat based decisions on. i think i pucke and call here. hes def not a good player given his flop minraise and river overbet. i dont understand your river bet though, if its a block go at least half pot. im not folding to his push though.

[pmw]

i dont like the size of you bets. betting 1/2 pot on the flop and 1/3 is not big enough. If you dont want to call an all in then chekc and call his bet (i think he would bet 1/2 pot to pot size).

[flair1239]

[ QUOTE ]
50 hands isnt enough to make stat based decisions on. i think i pucke and call here. hes def not a good player given his flop minraise and river overbet. i dont understand your river bet though, if its a block go at least half pot. im not folding to his push though.

[/ QUOTE ]

50 hands is what I have though, if over those 50 hands he had a VPIP of 80% and went to showdown 60% of the time... that would be actionable information.

So I also think the fact he has only VPIPd 12% of the time is a fair indicator of tightness, I realise that his normal range could be in the 20-25%... but it is probably not 40-60%VPIP. Also his PFR of 5% is also noteable. So after 50 hands, even though I do not have his every nuance nailed down... I can conclude that he is likely a tight player who does not raise a lot PF... and his post flop play this session had been rockish.

I can take or leave my river bet, maybe half the pot would have been better, but a third of the pot into him, after calling his flop raise and turn bet, I thought should have been enough where he would still call with worse hands, but probably would not raise them.

I ask you to give me a hand range, maybe on the flop he could have something like 88-TT, but after having 2 overcards fall on the turn and river, he is not going to be pushing the river. So what hands would you expect to see from him at showdown?

[flair1239]

[ QUOTE ]
i dont like the size of you bets. betting 1/2 pot on the flop and 1/3 is not big enough. If you dont want to call an all in then chekc and call his bet (i think he would bet 1/2 pot to pot size).

[/ QUOTE ]

Fair enough.

Although I would disagree on the flop bet. Because there is really not alot for folks to call with. Also if I was stealing this would be the bet size I would use.

As for check calling the river, that is fine. But what hand range are ou expecting to see here?

[Stake Monster]

I fold on the river. He wouldn't have raised you on the flop without hitting it (from my experience with those types of players), it looks like he was trying to milk the pot.

I think you are behind most of the time here, unless he is really bad. He could easily have A2, or even pocket 7s, or a better 2 than yours, or at the extreme a slowplayed KK/QQ?. Perhaps I give him too much credit, but I doubt he'd pull a move like that without him having the nuts.

[flair1239]

[ QUOTE ]
I fold on the river. He wouldn't have raised you on the flop without hitting it (from my experience with those types of players), it looks like he was trying to milk the pot.

I think you are behind most of the time here, unless he is really bad. He could easily have A2, or even pocket 7s, or a better 2 than yours, or at the extreme a slowplayed KK/QQ?. Perhaps I give him too much credit, but I doubt he'd pull a move like that without him having the nuts.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is kind of where I am at. Unless he is running multi-street bluff. I read his flop raise as "I have a good hand, please don't fold.", the turn bet was standard, then me leading the river and him pushing I kind of heard "Good you like your hand and probably want to showdown, let get all my chips in first!."

Anyway I thought the hand was interesting and am wondering what people who want to call expect him to have?

[the machine]

i have no idea where to begin to put him. i doubt he has a 2 in his hand. KQ seems about right. if he has 77 i probably drop a stack to him. KK-QQ are out of the question IMO. if he has 77 though the hand doesnt make sense because would he not try to get value from you, instead of a huge overbet on the river???

[boycalledroy]

I'm expecting (and getting) KQ, anything else this guy is a moron and I'm stackign him down the line somewhere as he slowplays another massive hand and whines when it loses.

[flair1239]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm expecting (and getting) KQ, anything else this guy is a moron and I'm stackign him down the line somewhere as he slowplays another massive hand and whines when it loses.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not trying to be sarcastic; but you feel it is more likely that the rock-like player did an overcard semi-bluff on the flop and then hit a perfect-perfect two-pair and is ready to stack off on the paired board; then it is he simply limped in with 77 or A2 and is simply playing a strong hand?

[Machavelli]

You flopped something nice, why not pot the flop? With so many people in the hand you'll likely get a caller.

Turn - why are we not raising the turn here? I'd prefer to lead the turn for a 3/4 pot.

River - your $4 bet into a 12 dollar pot is asking to get jumped. No need to be deceptive here. Just put out $8 and go from there.

[KungFuManchu]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm expecting (and getting) KQ, anything else this guy is a moron and I'm stackign him down the line somewhere as he slowplays another massive hand and whines when it loses.

[/ QUOTE ]

people expecting to see KQ here is pretty LOL. this is either a 2, 77, QQ-AA. sure is that a tight range? yeah, but in hand thats what Id think. I think at best, unless he has AA you are hoping for a split.

personally given river, you can discount AA. You can probably discount QQ a little given turn (guy seems weak passive), you might discount KK a little because people love the turn check behind. regardless, I think this is pretty often a split or u are dead.

fwiw I dont bet river, also, this push is pretty standard donk talk which = yeah baby, u know u want to call this. which is funny, because while they do it, they cant lay much of any sort of made hand down to it when they themselves are facing a similar bet.

unless hes pissed off at his girlfriend or something, its not looking good on u taking this whole thing down.

[ocdscale]

I don't think there's any chance you're ahead. If your read is correct (folding flop a lot), I think it's 77, A2, or KK (I think unlikely giving his preflop play).
If you look at his bet sizes, he isn't trying to get you off your hand, he's just building the pot. It reeks of a big hand.

If I were a betting man, I say he turns over 77.

[DocMartin]

I think the hand is played fine until the river. You have trips with no kicker and the only hands that make sense for him to have are 77 and less likely A2s.

You can't fold to a min raise on the flop and a 3bet is likely spewing. The check/call of the small bet on the turn is fine as well.

The river play is a limit move and just doesn't work the same at NL. In limit it is a thin value bet since you were going to call a bet, you don't want it to get checked though, and it is unlikely that you will get raised.

In NL the weak river lead is an invitation to get pushed off your hand. I'm guessing you could have seen his hand at a significant discount.

As played I think I fold.

[creamfillin]

I think I reraise the flop for information to find out if I'm way behind or not. These rocks will shutdown unless they hold very powerful hands. It's alot easier than trying to figure it out later on, when the pot has become huge.

[Reliant444]

so we're putting him squarely on 77?