25NL 6max 500+ BB deep - AA facing large river bet.

[shoxbb6]

Villain is 44/30/2 over ~500 hands.

He's showed a willingness to get it in on the flop with simply a flush on another occasion, and the only time I have seen him lead out for a ~psb bet on the river was with A4o on a 34579 board.

Full Tilt Poker
$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game
6 Players
LegoPoker Hand Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh)

<font color="black">Stack Sizes</font>
Hero (CO): $129
BTN: $18.80
SB: $24.3
BB: $37.55
UTG: $27.55
MP: $154.85

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> A/images/graemlins/heart.gif A/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($0.35, 6 players)
UTG calls $0.25, <font color="red">MP raises to $1.10</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $5</font>, BTN folds, SB folds, BB folds, UTG folds, MP calls $3.90

<font color="black">Flop:</font> 2/images/graemlins/club.gif 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif 6/images/graemlins/club.gif ($10.6, 2 players)
MP checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $7</font>, MP calls $7

<font color="black">Turn:</font> 2/images/graemlins/club.gif 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif 6/images/graemlins/club.gif [8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif] ($24.6, 2 players)
MP checks, Hero checks

<font color="black">River:</font> 2/images/graemlins/club.gif 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif 6/images/graemlins/club.gif 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif [5/images/graemlins/heart.gif] ($24.6, 2 players)
<font color="red">MP bets $21</font>, Hero ??

[Paul Thomson]

i think you played this hand very well given how deep you are. very few people understand the concept of protecting your stack and not your hand at this level.

river is meh and is probably a fold.

nh, sir...move up in limits when u ahve the bankroll.

[tarheeljks]

is just calling really that bad here? this board certainly makes a set possible given the pf raise, but overpairs seem to be in the proper range to warrant the call.

[Curtrosity]

[ QUOTE ]
is just calling really that bad here? this board certainly makes a set possible given the pf raise, but overpairs seem to be in the proper range to warrant the call.

[/ QUOTE ]

you realize there is a 2 way 4 card straight on board right?

[Jouster777]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
is just calling really that bad here? this board certainly makes a set possible given the pf raise, but overpairs seem to be in the proper range to warrant the call.

[/ QUOTE ]

you realize there is a 2 way 4 card straight on board right?

[/ QUOTE ]
Since it looks like we cbet and gave up here lets assume villain has a PP and does this with any PP 44+.
44-99 beats us: 24 combos
TT-KK we win: 24 combos

We can discount TT-KK a bit because villain may be afraid of the straight (though he probably shouldn't be) and because he may still realize we may show up with a higher PP. Balancing that, he may be trying to push us off our "AK" with his own AK or whatever.

Even after discounting I can't pass up the 2:1 odds the pot is offering so I call.

[Bork]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
is just calling really that bad here? this board certainly makes a set possible given the pf raise, but overpairs seem to be in the proper range to warrant the call.

[/ QUOTE ]

you realize there is a 2 way 4 card straight on board right?

[/ QUOTE ]


Also opponent knows almost for sure hero doesn't have a straight though.. I think he could be up against qq/jj/TT, bluff here enough to call. He is also getting better than 2:1. I am calling this, but maybe I suck.

[Curtrosity]

i think calling is alright, but you should expect to see either a bluff or a straight here almost every time i think.

i just seriously doubt TT-KK is betting $22 on this river.

[Jouster777]

[ QUOTE ]
i just seriously doubt TT-KK is betting $22 on this river.

[/ QUOTE ] That's true...I was wrong to give it so much weight in the post below.

[Genz]

villain raises more crap preflop than I play from the button, probably. So he could have all kinds of hands here. Anywhere from overpair to straight via set and unimproved overs. I just fold my one pair here and cut my losses.

[chris216]

[ QUOTE ]
i think you played this hand very well given how deep you are. very few people understand the concept of protecting your stack and not your hand at this level.


[/ QUOTE ]

So what is the difference between protecting your hand and protecting your stack? I have never heard of that. Is that just a fancy phrase for pot control? Why is it good not to bet the turn? When do you bet to protect against draws and when do you check behind?

[ShipitFMA]

Doesn't this have to be 99 or a set here everytime. I think its very very rare you will see a 25NL player betting $21 on a bluff.

[Paul Thomson]

worse hands don't bet the river unless he has air and he doesn't have since he called the flop. add in the bet size on the river and...

it's an easy fold.

[SirFelixCat]

[ QUOTE ]
worse hands don't bet the river unless he has air and he doesn't have since he called the flop. add in the bet size on the river and...

it's an easy fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree on some, not on others. Do I think it's a fold? Well, to be 100% honest, I'm really split between calling/folding here.

Villain very well could have overs w/FD and figures OP to have an overpair and is betting a perfect river scare card.

FWIW, I think OP played this masterfully and either calling or folding is fine. This comes up so rarely, that it really is probably EV neutral. Very well played hand, sir!


eta: you bet your ass if I'm villain and had, say, AKc here, I'm betting this river EXACTLY like that. I realize what the turn check represents (based on the 3-bet preflop and CB on the flop), sure looks like pot-control to me with an overpair, so you bet I'm betting this river just like villain did.

[EMc]

Given the hand the OP posted with this its easy to make a case for calling or folding. In the heat of the moment, I call. The decisions are so close it really is neutral EV like SFC said.

[Paul Thomson]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
worse hands don't bet the river unless he has air and he doesn't have since he called the flop. add in the bet size on the river and...

it's an easy fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree on some, not on others. Do I think it's a fold? Well, to be 100% honest, I'm really split between calling/folding here.

Villain very well could have overs w/FD and figures OP to have an overpair and is betting a perfect river scare card.

FWIW, I think OP played this masterfully and either calling or folding is fine. This comes up so rarely, that it really is probably EV neutral. Very well played hand, sir!


eta: you bet your ass if I'm villain and had, say, AKc here, I'm betting this river EXACTLY like that. I realize what the turn check represents (based on the 3-bet preflop and CB on the flop), sure looks like pot-control to me with an overpair, so you bet I'm betting this river just like villain did.

[/ QUOTE ]

villain could have over cards plus a flush draw but that makes up exactly 2 or 3 hands at most (which usually don't play the flop or turn that way, fwiw).

Whereas, there are a ton of other hands that the villain could have that has us crushed.

i think a river fold is pretty clear.

[KungFuManchu]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain is 44/30/2 over ~500 hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
the only time I have seen him lead out for a ~psb bet on the river was with A4o on a 34579 board.

[/ QUOTE ]

against this guy, I fire turn. he c-r then u have something to think about, as it is, hes probably going to call just about a crap ton of [censored] against u. my guess from a river bet this size it can literally be a bluff (counting all weak made hands hes holding), or the straight, he might do this type of bet with two pair and a set.

Id probably call given the history. ask yourself, do u take this down 32 percent of the time against this guy, how capable, given what u know over 500 hands, is he to bluff.

[SirFelixCat]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
worse hands don't bet the river unless he has air and he doesn't have since he called the flop. add in the bet size on the river and...

it's an easy fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree on some, not on others. Do I think it's a fold? Well, to be 100% honest, I'm really split between calling/folding here.

Villain very well could have overs w/FD and figures OP to have an overpair and is betting a perfect river scare card.

FWIW, I think OP played this masterfully and either calling or folding is fine. This comes up so rarely, that it really is probably EV neutral. Very well played hand, sir!


eta: you bet your ass if I'm villain and had, say, AKc here, I'm betting this river EXACTLY like that. I realize what the turn check represents (based on the 3-bet preflop and CB on the flop), sure looks like pot-control to me with an overpair, so you bet I'm betting this river just like villain did.

[/ QUOTE ]

villain could have over cards plus a flush draw but that makes up exactly 2 or 3 hands at most (which usually don't play the flop or turn that way, fwiw).

Whereas, there are a ton of other hands that the villain could have that has us crushed.

i think a river fold is pretty clear.

[/ QUOTE ]

How would you play this, Paul, with stacks this deep, from villain's POV?

[KungFuManchu]

[ QUOTE ]
i think you played this hand very well given how deep you are. very few people understand the concept of protecting your stack and not your hand at this level.


[/ QUOTE ]

I dont see what u need to protect stack wise here. if he c-r you on the turn, after calling that flop, its likely u need to fold, if hes a tricky player that will put u in all sorts of tough spots with draws/medium hands/bluffs then check behind, and induce him to bluff. on this river, for all he knows, u are afraid or have overs, maybe 99 or TT. which can be a problem if hes somewhat aware and u do check behind here.

I personally think from what I know from OP that this guy is going to call worse hands often against u, I dont know how tricky he is though. the only problem I can see stack wise, is if u fire turn and he fires at u on the river. if he has a propensitiy for c/ring and good at putting pressure on u without the better hand, check behind. but against this guy on this river, u have no clue if u are folding the better hand or not.

as a side note, against me, if I know u are a tag and can fold, I will c-r these types of spots often or fire the river.

[Paul Thomson]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i think you played this hand very well given how deep you are. very few people understand the concept of protecting your stack and not your hand at this level.


[/ QUOTE ]

I dont see what u need to protect stack wise here. if he c-r you on the turn, after calling that flop, its likely u need to fold, if hes a tricky player that will put u in all sorts of tough spots with draws/medium hands/bluffs then check behind, and induce him to bluff. on this river, for all he knows, u are afraid or have overs, maybe 99 or TT. which can be a problem if hes somewhat aware and u do check behind here.

I personally think from what I know from OP that this guy is going to call worse hands often against u, I dont know how tricky he is though. the only problem I can see stack wise, is if u fire turn and he fires at u on the river. if he has a propensitiy for c/ring and good at putting pressure on u without the better hand, check behind. but against this guy on this river, u have no clue if u are folding the better hand or not.

as a side note, against me, if I know u are a tag and can fold, I will c-r these types of spots often or fire the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

the exact reason to check-behind on the turn is because of stack sizes...

as for the river, put the villain on a hand range given the preflop and flop action in which he'd bet the river with a worse hand?

[KungFuManchu]

Shox (OP),

can u enlighten us to what happened, actionwise on the hand where he made a psb bet on the river with A4o on a 34579 board? or just post the hand for us.

then we can get closer to see hand ranges, because personally not knowing the action, it can be decently wide. see I dont know anything about this guy except what Im told, is he pretty lose and will call raises with any ace, did he call bets down with his A4o hand, was it played exactly like this hand? etc.

[Paul Thomson]

[ QUOTE ]
Shox (OP),

can u enlighten us to what happened, actionwise on the hand where he made a psb bet on the river with A4o on a 34579 board? or just post the hand for us.

then we can get closer to see hand ranges, because personally not knowing the action, it can be decently wide. see I dont know anything about this guy except what Im told, is he pretty lose and will call raises with any ace, did he call bets down with his A4o hand, was it played exactly like this hand? etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

i forgot about his retarded bet on teh river wiht another hand...but even so, it's hard to put him on a range that makes calling correct which is my guess.

[allaboutmyfetti]

uh .. sorry i'm prolly late on the bandwagon.

why is everyone so sure villian isn't "value" betting TT+? He's a frickin 25NL lag-donkey.

I think the check on the turn is good ... in retrospect i'd be drooling over this guy's stats / RR'd pot and lookin for a way to get the stacks in, so I probably wouldn't have the discipline to check the turn.

[KungFuManchu]

[ QUOTE ]
uh .. sorry i'm prolly late on the bandwagon.

why is everyone so sure villian isn't "value" betting TT+? He's a frickin 25NL lag-donkey.

I think the check on the turn is good ... in retrospect i'd be drooling over this guy's stats / RR'd pot and lookin for a way to get the stacks in, so I probably wouldn't have the discipline to check the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

im not everyone. also, im in disagreement about the turn check, I can see why it was checked, and understand the arguments, but for me, against this guy, Id probably bet.

[Angrymoog]

Tough spot. I think you can use the psb with the pair of 4's example to support checking behind on the turn. If we do bet the turn, we already know that if villain calls he has a tendency to betthe river with weak hands. This could put us in a tough position where we are forced to call a river bet when he could easily have us beat. We figure he will probably call the turn bet due to the large number of draws present on the board. We "protect" our stack by not getting a great deal of it in on a board that could make our opponent a big hand or cause is to be put to a big decision on the river with a pair of AA. The concept is new to me, so tell me if ive got it wrong.

[Paul Thomson]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
uh .. sorry i'm prolly late on the bandwagon.

why is everyone so sure villian isn't "value" betting TT+? He's a frickin 25NL lag-donkey.

I think the check on the turn is good ... in retrospect i'd be drooling over this guy's stats / RR'd pot and lookin for a way to get the stacks in, so I probably wouldn't have the discipline to check the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

im not everyone. also, im in disagreement about the turn check, I can see why it was checked, and understand the arguments, but for me, against this guy, Id probably bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

what if the villain is a bad enough donk that he'll check raise you on teh turn with KK or QQ? You're folding ot the raise right?

We definitly have value against worse hands. Betting the turn isn't terrible by any means, since he we can get 3-streets of value out of worse hands. but i sitll like a check I think.

[shoxbb6]

[ QUOTE ]
Shox (OP),

can u enlighten us to what happened, actionwise on the hand where he made a psb bet on the river with A4o on a 34579 board? or just post the hand for us.

[/ QUOTE ]

Villain is UTG in this hand.

Full Tilt Poker
$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game
6 Players
LegoPoker Hand Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh)

<font color="black">Stack Sizes</font>
Hero (MP): $90.70
CO: $45.15
BTN: $60.45
SB: $24.65
BB: $41.25
UTG: $30.10

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> T/images/graemlins/spade.gif 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($0.35, 6 players)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $0.85</font>, Hero calls $0.85, CO folds, <font color="red">BTN raises to $5</font>, SB folds, BB folds, UTG calls $4.15, Hero folds

<font color="black">Flop:</font> 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($11.2, 2 players)
UTG checks, BTN checks

<font color="black">Turn:</font> 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif [9/images/graemlins/heart.gif] ($11.2, 2 players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">BTN bets $5</font>, UTG calls $5

<font color="black">River:</font> 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif [5/images/graemlins/club.gif] ($21.2, 2 players)
<font color="red">UTG bets all in for $20.10</font>, BTN calls $20.10

<font color="black">Results:</font>
BTN had 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 3/images/graemlins/club.gif (three of a kind, Threes) and won $58.40
UTG had A/images/graemlins/heart.gif 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (a pair of Fours)
Final Pot: $58.40 ($3.00 rake)