50 NL Flush/Gutshot Straight Draw

[bustacaps18]

Hello,
No reads since I just got to the table. Anyways, my real question is how to play flush/gut shot straight draws. I basically pushed on the flop, I had slight fold equity (I hope I'm using this term properly) but since he reraised my reraise I don't really. At that point I pushed all in since I have 15 outs. This is how I see it: if I move all in on the flop that means I have to get to see two cards with 15 outs which makes my odds 15/47 X two so more or less 63%. Also, I have slight fold equity here. Anyways, any thoughts would be great, thanks.

$0.50-$0.50 No Limit HE

SB (villain): ($50.60 in chips)
BB: ($51.05 in chips)
UTG: ($20.60 in chips)
UTG1: ($57.75 in chips)
BTN (hero): ($75.40 in chips)

*** Blind Bet Round *** :

Dealt to Hero: 10/images/graemlins/spade.gif6/images/graemlins/spade.gif

*** Pre-Flop *** :

UTG: Fold
UTG1: Fold
BTN (hero): Bet ($2)
SB (villain): Call ($1.75)
BB: Fold

*** Flop *** : 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif 8/images/graemlins/club.gif
(Pot: $4)

Villain: Bet ($3)
Hero: Raise ($8)
Villain: Raise ($21)
Hero: Raise ($65.40)
Hero: All In ($73.40)
Villain: Call ($24.60)
Villain: All In ($48.60)

*** Turn *** : [ 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif 8/images/graemlins/club.gif ] A/images/graemlins/heart.gif

*** River *** : [ 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif 8/images/graemlins/club.gif A/images/graemlins/heart.gif ] 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[Paul Thomson]

given preflop range of villiain the flop likely hit him.

and ou don't ahve 15 outs. you dohn't have a staright draw. you have a flush draw plus a gut shot. and since you're not drawing to a the nut flush 8 of your outs may not be good.

call the flop. and reevaluate turn since some of your outs are hidden plus you have postion so there's no point in pressing the action, especially if villain won't fold given his range.

[mathemagician54]

postflop is fine, preflop is fold usually

[Paul Thomson]

[ QUOTE ]
postflop is fine, preflop is fold usually

[/ QUOTE ]

your post is useless. posting statements without backign up wiht evidence is lame unless you're a proven poster or a successful poster.

especially when both of your statements could be wrong. preflop can be a fold or raise when on the button. flop raise isn't terrible but probably isn't optimal. if you're questioning my logic refer to previous post.

[bustacaps18]

Yeah I realized after I posted that I only had 12 outs. 8 flush draw 4 gut shot.
Also, let's just assume I have the nut flush draw just so I really understand how to play hands like this. Is the point of really pushing your combined draws because of the odds (12-13 outs) and the fact that two cards are coming if you move all in? So you almost always have at least 50% of the pot like this? To me this seems to be a profitable play. Basically if you have 50% of the pot shouldn't you be pushing as much as possible into it, on the flop that is?

[jordiepop]

I might pass preflop but i raise with a lot of hands from the btn. I dont mind you raise on the flop since he could be leading weak here. when he re-raises its obv hes not folding so id just call and see what the action brings on the turn.



hes obv not folding so i dont really like a push here. if we had 15 clean outs than it would be a dif story.

[Paul Thomson]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah I realized after I posted that I only had 12 outs. 8 flush draw 4 gut shot.
Also, let's just assume I have the nut flush draw just so I really understand how to play hands like this. Is the point of really pushing your combined draws because of the odds (12-13 outs) and the fact that two cards are coming if you move all in? So you almost always have at least 50% of the pot like this? To me this seems to be a profitable play. Basically if you have 50% of the pot shouldn't you be pushing as much as possible into it, on the flop that is?

[/ QUOTE ]

pushing your combo draws is ALL ABOUT FE. if you have zero FE, then there's no reason to push your combo draws.

when you raisedon the flop, you're raise was to small to put real pressure on the vilain. so it more more or less acted as a sweetenign raise to make the villain more committed to the pot if you hit. or to get you a free card on the turn if he double barrels alot. (this is asuming you odn't have the nut flush becuase that changes everyting...think about it.)

villains who call from the sb likely don't ahve a bid ahnd. which means they son't have QQ+ or AQ+...this means when they donk into you, they likely hit the flop and probalby won't fold to a raise even if they should. therefore, you don't ahve alot of Fold Equit and should call. ESPECIALLY, since 4 of your outs are hidden and you'll likely get paid off when you hit, so your pot odds go up given the decption of some of your outs.

[bustacaps18]

Lemme see if I understand. Fair enough fold equity I guess is 0 in this situation. So this play is really based on odds. So let's say I'm in this exact situation with the gut shot straight draw and the nut flush draw. So a clean 14 outs. Would this be the kind of situation to push? With 14 squeaky clean outs (with 0 fold equity) I should push because I'm getting 60% to the river?

[Paul Thomson]

[ QUOTE ]
I might pass preflop but i raise with a lot of hands from the btn. I dont mind you raise on the flop since he could be leading weak here. when he re-raises its obv hes not folding so id just call and see what the action brings on the turn.



hes obv not folding so i dont really like a push here. if we had 15 clean outs than it would be a dif story.

[/ QUOTE ]

i'm not so sure why you think villain is "leading weak". also i'm not totally convinced about calling the flop 3-bet. we're getting great odds, but who knows how many of our outs are clean.

i agree that pushign the flop is bad. calling the flop 3-bet is probably good given implied odds.

[mathemagician54]

meh there are other things to consider besides FE, for example straights tend to be more profitable because they tend to be more concealed whereas if opponent isn't chasing flush himself he may slow down when the flush card hits

[Paul Thomson]

[ QUOTE ]
Lemme see if I understand. Fair enough fold equity I guess is 0 in this situation. So this play is really based on odds. So let's say I'm in this exact situation with the gut shot straight draw and the nut flush draw. So a clean 14 outs. Would this be the kind of situation to push? With 14 squeaky clean outs (with 0 fold equity) I should push because I'm getting 60% to the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

FE and odds are based on the same logice. if villain has an over pair you DON'T have 14 outs. if villain has an over pair or TP then you have at most 13 outs. 9 outs to the flush + 4 outs to a gut shot for a total of 13 outs. however, you're 4 outs could be draing to a lower stight if the villain has TJ and your flush draw outs might not be clean if the villain is drawing to a higher flush draw. So when figuring your odds, you must DISCOUNT your odds. you probably have closer to 11 to 11.5 outs.

however, ALL OUTS ARE NOT TREATED EQUALLY. the villain isn't as likely to payo you off if you hit your flush draw since it'll be obvious to him if you hit it. this is a reason to poush on the flop.

on the other hand, you gut shot draw is hidden or conceived outs. so if you hit your gut shot draw, you should bet a HIGHER % of the pot size because the vilain proably won't put you on a gut shot and will pay you off more if he has a hand. This is a reason to call on the flop.

you have little FE becasue of the Villain's preflop range relation to the flop tesxutre. therefore, you should proably call given all these facotrs.

[bustacaps18]

Yeah, on a flop like this w/ the outs I have, a Call is definitely the most profitable play. I just want to know if part of the reasoning behind playing Combo draws fast is that if you do get called down you still have a 50-60% chance of winning because the turn and river have yet to come? So playing combo draws like this is partly due to fold equity and the odds of hitting your draw on the turn and river since you're trying to get all your chips in on the flop?

[mathemagician54]

it's not that clear that calling is the most profitable play. Your first raise is fine, then he repops it to 21, if you call he has $27 behind. If the turn blanks, then what? you fold to his bet?

If you shove, 2 things happen: you get to see the turn and the river, and if some scare card comes ie a spade then you already have him committed. If he's not drawing to a flush and he's cautious, when a spade comes it's going to be tough for you to get the rest of his stack.

note that i'm not saying shoving is the most profitable play either, this is something you should calculate. i'm just saying it's not that clear cut that calling is best. the argument that you're in position is weak bc stacks are < PSB, you are most likely facing a shove on the turn regardless if u just flat call.

but you are right, shoving draws is good because of the money you get when you actually hit, and bc of the money you get when he folds

[Paul Thomson]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, on a flop like this w/ the outs I have, a Call is definitely the most profitable play. I just want to know if part of the reasoning behind playing Combo draws fast is that if you do get called down you still have a 50-60% chance of winning because the turn and river have yet to come? So playing combo draws like this is partly due to fold equity and the odds of hitting your draw on the turn and river since you're trying to get all your chips in on the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

you should paly your combo draws faster when ooiut of postion on the flop and slower when in position. this is a gneral statment and alot of factors go into it.

READ. DJSENSEI's post in SSNL forum aobut 2 weeks ago about palyign combo draws. He's one of the top players on the interntet and a great theoretical mind. i could try to explain more but...whatever.

To answer your question. you have 41% equity on the flop with 11 outs. so you should play it fast if you have FE. cause even if you ahve over 50% equity, the most +EV plaly might to play it slow...
(i want to end my post her but i'm gion to give you an example to think about.)

UTG raises. you call on the button ith 5/images/graemlins/club.gif 4/images/graemlins/club.gif. flop come Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif :3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif. Villain leads flop.

Is calling or raising best...?

[Paul Thomson]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, on a flop like this w/ the outs I have, a Call is definitely the most profitable play. I just want to know if part of the reasoning behind playing Combo draws fast is that if you do get called down you still have a 50-60% chance of winning because the turn and river have yet to come? So playing combo draws like this is partly due to fold equity and the odds of hitting your draw on the turn and river since you're trying to get all your chips in on the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

getting all your chips in on the flop only make sense if you have FE.

[Paul Thomson]

[ QUOTE ]
it's not that clear that calling is the most profitable play. Your first raise is fine, then he repops it to 21, if you call he has $27 behind. If the turn blanks, then what? you fold to his bet?

If you shove, 2 things happen: you get to see the turn and the river, and if some scare card comes ie a spade then you already have him committed. If he's not drawing to a flush and he's cautious, when a spade comes it's going to be tough for you to get the rest of his stack.

note that i'm not saying shoving is the most profitable play either, this is something you should calculate. i'm just saying it's not that clear cut that calling is best. the argument that you're in position is weak bc stacks are < PSB, you are most likely facing a shove on the turn regardless if u just flat call.

but you are right, shoving draws is good because of the money you get when you actually hit, and bc of the money you get when he folds

[/ QUOTE ]

your argument is mute beucase my contention is that his FIRST raise is bad.

After villain 3-bets the flop calling or pushing or folding is all probably very close EV depending on villain range given action.

[mathemagician54]

ok, then that makes sense. But what is your problem with the first raise, besides size? you think he has 0 FE with that initial raise?

[Paul Thomson]

[ QUOTE ]
it's awful to call the $21, at that point the villain has $27 behind and the pot is ~45, when you are calculating EV you're neglecting the money already in the pot

[/ QUOTE ]

Reread my post. Hero should NOT raise the initial flop bet from the villain...do you understand?

[bustacaps18]

Honestly, I'd fold there because your straight isn't very good with the flush draw out there. But I understand what you're saying the true value in playing Combo draws is the fold equity. I just don't think if you have above 50% equity on the flop you should play it slow with a draw. Just doesn't make much sense to me. Also, can you show me how you got to 41% equity? Thanks for the help.

[mathemagician54]

yes i understand your point, my post was already edited. But my point is that i dont see anything wrong with the initial raise. First of all, you've taken the initiative by raising preflop, so there should be some FE. Second of all, bloating the pot is good bc if a spade comes and he's aware you might be drawing to a flush, it's going to be tough to stack him.

[Paul Thomson]

[ QUOTE ]
Honestly, I'd fold there because your straight isn't very good with the flush draw out there. But I understand what you're saying the true value in playing Combo draws is the fold equity. I just don't think if you have above 50% equity on the flop you should play it slow with a draw. Just doesn't make much sense to me. Also, can you show me how you got to 41% equity? Thanks for the help.

[/ QUOTE ]

you're right. if for FACT you have more than 50% equity on the flop, you should get it all-in. Every penny you get in on the flop comes back to u more. I could come up wiht a situation where it would make sense to play it slow but it doesn't come up often...(it would ebe a situation where the villain wouldn't believe you if you played it fast on a drawy board but you also had alot of hiddne outs wiht a double belly buster)

as far as shwoing how you have 41% equtiy with 11 outs. here's an easy chart for reference: http://www.cardplayer.com/magazine/article/13913

[Paul Thomson]

[ QUOTE ]
Honestly, I'd fold there because your straight isn't very good with the flush draw out there. But I understand what you're saying the true value in playing Combo draws is the fold equity. I just don't think if you have above 50% equity on the flop you should play it slow with a draw. Just doesn't make much sense to me. Also, can you show me how you got to 41% equity? Thanks for the help.

[/ QUOTE ]

but disregard whether you ahve 50% equity or not. let's say you ahve 41% equity and because of the dead money you have in the pot. even if pushing is +EV, then calling might be HIGER +EV. This situation comes up quite often.

[Paul Thomson]

[ QUOTE ]
yes i understand your point, my post was already edited. But my point is that i dont see anything wrong with the initial raise. First of all, you've taken the initiative by raising preflop, so there should be some FE. Second of all, bloating the pot is good bc if a spade comes and he's aware you might be drawing to a flush, it's going to be tough to stack him.

[/ QUOTE ]

when he donks into you. he either has a very weak hand and plays bad or a very strong hand and u have little FE. If he has a weak hand, you can call on the flop and bet the turn which he'll fold...so no point in raising the flop.

sure making a sweetener raise might help make him committed to the pot if ou hit our flush. but he isn't committed yet and should be able to get away fomr it even if you hit. plus 1/3 of your outs are hidden and thus it'll be easy to stack him when they come in.

[Paul Thomson]

i'm also kina of embarrsed because i dobule counted one of yoru outs...whoops. the 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif cannot count as an out to a straight....duh.

[mathemagician54]

meh those are valid points, but i really dont think raising/calling are that far apart. BTW can you dig up dj sensei's post, i cant seem to find it

[Paul Thomson]

[ QUOTE ]
meh those are valid points, but i really dont think raising/calling are that far apart. BTW can you dig up dj sensei's post, i cant seem to find it

[/ QUOTE ]

i just looked for his post but couldn't find it. i'm terrible with the search function!

it was in the last 2-3 weeks. if you search hard you can find it...it's worth. there are quite a few factors to weigh in when playign a combo draw adn he does a good job of explaining them.

[bustacaps18]

Yeah, with 41% equity on the flop I believe that pushing is only EV+ if you have fold equity. So in most situations when you have a combo draw with 15 solid outs pushing would be very EV+ due to FE and your pot equity.

[Paul Thomson]

[ QUOTE ]
meh those are valid points, but i really dont think raising/calling are that far apart. BTW can you dig up dj sensei's post, i cant seem to find it

[/ QUOTE ]

meh, calling and raising are far apart. think about it. raising only makes snese if villain wil fold worse ahnds which he wont'. he might fold a hand like 89 but he probably wouldn't bet it. most draws tha he bets are pretty good draw like our own and are likely drawing to higher stairght or flushes.

[mathemagician54]

that is the problem, i don't see how you're so sure he doesn't fold better hands. playing weak pairs OOP facing a lot of heat isn't a great move for villain.

[Jouster777]

The first raise was standard. Its the first raise where we had the FE. As you said, he is donking into us on the flop which often means a draw (usually donks a bit less), weakly made hand probing, or a very big hand. We fold out all but the very big hands which is a great result for what is at that point a 10-high hand.

The second raise? It almost doesn't matter - if we call we get to the turn with villain only having a 1/2 psb left so we are committed to calling the inevitable turn push. Might as well take the sliver of FE that remains to us on the flop and do the pushing ourselves.

[Jouster777]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, can you show me how you got to 41% equity?

[/ QUOTE ]
Your initial calculation of your equity had several errors. As already pointed out GSSD+FD = 12 outs. 12 outs is a best case scenario because if villain has a set or 2-pair he has redraws to beat you even if you hit your outs. If he has a draw to a higher flush or straight you are in trouble. Anyway, if we assume the 12 outs will be good you still can't (simply) add probabilities.
Turn probability of hitting = 12/47 and river 12/46
The combined probability of hitting is 1-(probability whiff both)
1-(35/47*34/46)= 1-.55 = 45%

[sputum]

Lots of interesting thoughts on this hand. Here are mine for what they are worth.

I call the first flop bet, mainly to leave room for larger mistakes (by villain /images/graemlins/tongue.gif) on the subsequent rounds. I don't mind the raise though - it may buy a free turn card, and FE>0 at this point, surely. I'd raise more if I chose to stick chips in.
[ QUOTE ]
getting all your chips in on the flop only make sense if you have FE.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is untrue. A decent draw does not want a large portion of his stack in on the flop if a big bet on a blank turn will then still force him to fold. So I would also push over the flop reraise.

[ QUOTE ]
meh, calling and raising are far apart. think about it. raising only makes snese if villain wil fold worse ahnds which he wont'. he might fold a hand like 89 but he probably wouldn't bet it. most draws tha he bets are pretty good draw like our own and are likely drawing to higher stairght or flushes.


[/ QUOTE ]
The flop bet means an unknown villain crushes us? We can't fold out middle pair or a UI PP? It seems a little pessimistic to me.

[ QUOTE ]
UTG raises. you call on the button ith 5 4. flop come Q :3 2. Villain leads flop.

Is calling or raising best...?

[/ QUOTE ]
It depends /images/graemlins/smile.gif