AP 6max NL50 got RR by the blind... Flop hits. River bet?

[PSW]

Absolute Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
6 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

I have exactly one orbit on the BB. He bought in for 100 and may have assumed that I did as well given I am close to that. He doesn't have a reason be believe that I am any good. I don't really either. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

Stack sizes:
Hero: $95.25
UTG+1: $7.55
CO: $7.15
Button: $53.30
SB: $31.35
BB: $121.70

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG with J/images/graemlins/heart.gif Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif
<font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $2</font>, 4 folds, <font color="#cc0000">BB raises to $6.5</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: 7/images/graemlins/club.gif J/images/graemlins/spade.gif Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif ($13.25, 2 players)
BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $10</font>, BB calls.

Turn: A/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($33.25, 2 players)
BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $20</font>, BB calls.

River: 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif ($73.25, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero ...

Is there a value bet here? Does AQ fold ever here? Does AA raise the turn? What do you folks think...

Also, given stack sizes, what do you think of the PF call?

psw

[yeotaJMU]

fold to reraise preflop, as played check behind on river.

[Leviathan101]

i check behind river, cause you would puke to a raise, and I don't think KK or TT call a river bet. AK might... but I don't think AK gets to the turn. If he has a set, he raises the river for sure, and AQ never folds to less than a shove here. Your have has good showdown value, I wouldn't let it get blown out of the water here.

[Big Poppa Smurf]

He has AK here like every time all other hands either lead the river or checkraise the turn. And I don't think he'll try to checkraise the river here (and certainly not as a bluff) so if you do vb and he raises it's an easy fold. So I think vb'ing here is pretty safe, say like $25 or 30 will get called. It's small but he won't raise because he doesn't have a real hand he just wants to showdown.

[yeotaJMU]

never bet this river

[Thremp]

Preflop is horrid.

I can't see you getting a lot of value here. I doubt he has you beat.

[Big Poppa Smurf]

Thremp,

do you think he'll checkraise worse though? If not why not bet and let him decide what he's going to make a hero call with?

[yeotaJMU]

AK isnt calling this, and probably is folding the flop. this check/call down from a reraiser should raise a red flag everytime. he easily can have JJ or QQ even AA, as well as AQ. possibly even 77 or AJ with no reads its hard to put him on a range here. with all that said, the ONLY hand he can call a river bet with that you can beat is AK, and a good player would fold that anyway. too many hands beat you here, the pot is well big enough already just take it if he rolls over AK and be glad u didnt fire if he rolls up a set or aces up.

[Skleice]

Preflop no good. You raise UTG with a marginal hand and then call a big reraise.
Should've dumped it right there.

Easy check on river. I don`t see him calling with a hand like KQ, so he would only call or in the worst case checkraise you if your beat.