Marginal Spot with Pair+Draw... Gamble???

[schaef]

SB is a super loose-passive donator. The button at least tries to play well, but I have him running around 30/10 with very modest aggro numbers. Hero has been fairly card-dead and is probably running around 18/15 if anyone's even paying attention.

I just ran the pokerstove numbers with various ranges, but I'm curious to see what people's first reactions are.

Full Tilt Poker
$0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game
6 Players
LegoPoker Hand Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh)

<font color="black">Stack Sizes</font>
UTG: $142.10
MP: $25.60
CO: $21.10
BTN: $64.15
SB: $34.6
Hero (BB): $101.95

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($0.75, 6 players)
UTG folds, MP calls $0.50, <font color="red">CO raises to $2.25</font>, BTN calls $2.25, SB calls $2, Hero calls $1.75, MP calls $1.75

<font color="black">Flop:</font> 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif K/images/graemlins/spade.gif 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($11.25, 5 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, MP checks, CO checks, <font color="red">BTN bets $7</font>, <font color="red">SB raises to $14</font>, Hero folds or gambles?

[noob_sauce]

gambool!!!!!

[Machavelli]

gamble for sure.

[Jouster777]

[ QUOTE ]
gamble for sure.

[/ QUOTE ] Yes...but gamble with a call not a raise/push.

[schaef]

[ QUOTE ]
gambool!!!!!

[/ QUOTE ]

This is actually the exact spelling and number of exclamation points that went through my head when I played the hand...

[schaef]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
gamble for sure.

[/ QUOTE ] Yes...but gamble with a call not a raise/push.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, why?

[LOwrestling2001]

because the villain has already raised you, he is not going anywhere, we are more than likely behind already, and have 0 FE at this point. Villain has given us good odds to draw, so we just call that min raise and re-evaluate the turn.

[Skleice]

I would be concerned that there are 3 players left to act. The button had something strong enough to call a preflop raise of 4.5xbb and is now betting into 5 players. Yes he has position, but would he bet into 5 other players on a drawing board if he didn't have something worth protecting. He knows he is going to get called. Not to mention that he is not a aggressive player and he is betting out. If you call, you have to hope that the BTN does not reraise and just calls. And you're only getting a little over 2-1 on your $$$. I fold and pick a better spot to get involved in a big pot.

[Jouster777]

Calling here has nothing to do with reevaluating and being able to get away. There are two huge reasons to call:
1. Your FE is 0 (as lowwrestling points out). The reason we push our combo draws is FE and here we have little. Against SB FE is terrible...then there are 3 other villains to think about.
2. You want a family pot...anyone calling here is likely ahead of you already but at the same time, you are probably ahead of all of them if you hit your outs. Your odds skyrocket with every additional player that calls here and raising only makes them fold.

If this gets raised again you will be happy to get your money in on the flop...just don't be the one pushing the action.

[Perk76]

I find a better spot and fold. There might be a flush draw higher than yours present, and SB may have a set that has a decent chance to boat.

If this hand was open ended straight possibilities along with the flush draw and mid-pair, then I think its a bit safer to continue forward.

[schaef]

[ QUOTE ]
I would be concerned that there are 3 players left to act. The button had something strong enough to call a preflop raise of 4.5xbb and is now betting into 5 players. Yes he has position, but would he bet into 5 other players on a drawing board if he didn't have something worth protecting. He knows he is going to get called. Not to mention that he is not a aggressive player and he is betting out. If you call, you have to hope that the BTN does not reraise and just calls. And you're only getting a little over 2-1 on your $$$. I fold and pick a better spot to get involved in a big pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the thoughtful analysis. I understand the previous poster's reasoning behind a call, but I think if this hand is played it need to be a push in order to clean up my outs and maximize my fold equity, not again the raiser obviously, but against the button. If he wakes up with a set, so be it, but just about every time this is AK/KQ/KJ taking a stab.

I don't have the pokerstove in front of me, but I think I calculated something like 35% equity against the raiser's range, so in the end it probably doesn't matter much what I do. Chances of another player waking up with a huge hand probably tilts it toward a fold.

[kitchma]

I usually fold this PF. I try not to play SC's let alone SC 1 gappers OOP.

As played, I think I fold. It is likely that your flush outs are no good. The original raiser checked and the two cold callers are the one's raising. They obviously woke up with something: flush draw, two pair, or set for at least one of them. On top of that, not only do you have a raise and a check-raise in front of you, but you also have two behind you (one of which was the original raiser).

[schaef]

[ QUOTE ]
I usually fold this PF. I try not to play SC's let alone SC 1 gappers OOP.

As played, I think I fold. It is likely that your flush outs are no good. The original raiser checked and the two cold callers are the one's raising. They obviously woke up with something: flush draw, two pair, or set for at least one of them. On top of that, not only do you have a raise and a check-raise in front of you, but you also have two behind you (one of which was the original raiser).

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you're right... the combination of the original raiser waking up with a monster and overcalls from higher flush draws pushes this to a fold.

[Big Poppa Smurf]

omg calling here is ugly as hell, shove or fold. The same reason everyone is saying not to push (so many villains, no fold equity) makes calling even worse. Calling here just entices them to put their money in by shoving and then you wind up calling off your stack in the same spot you could've been by shoving and possibly folding out better hands.

[Big Poppa Smurf]

oh and lead the flop and 3bet ai and this hand plays out so differently

[schaef]

[ QUOTE ]
omg calling here is ugly as hell, shove or fold. The same reason everyone is saying not to push (so many villains, no fold equity) makes calling even worse. Calling here just entices them to put their money in by shoving and then you wind up calling off your stack in the same spot you could've been by shoving and possibly folding out better hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly.

[schaef]

[ QUOTE ]
oh and lead the flop and 3bet ai and this hand plays out so differently

[/ QUOTE ]

Definitely my line 100% of the time against 1-2 opponents, but against a large field sometimes I feel like seeing what develops.

[Jouster777]

[ QUOTE ]
omg calling here is ugly as hell, shove or fold. The same reason everyone is saying not to push (so many villains, no fold equity) makes calling even worse.

[/ QUOTE ]no...it makes it better to call because we have to improve to win if we get one caller and if we improve we rate to have the best hand against everyone. If we make this call we get 2.5:1 odds. If everyone calls we get 4.5:1 odds

[ QUOTE ]
Calling here just entices them to put their money in by shoving and then you wind up calling off your stack in the same spot you could've been by shoving and possibly folding out better hands.

[/ QUOTE ]With a draw it only helps to fold better hands if you fold EVERY better hand...its not gonna happen.

If you push and get SB to call you get 2:1 odds. If you call MP calls and CO pushes you get about 4:1 odds on the push. Someone else pushing here is preferred.

[Big Poppa Smurf]

Jouster,
[ QUOTE ]

omg calling here is ugly as hell, shove or fold. The same reason everyone is saying not to push (so many villains, no fold equity) makes calling even worse.


[ QUOTE ]


no...it makes it better to call because we have to improve to win if we get one caller and if we improve we rate to have the best hand against everyone. If we make this call we get 2.5:1 odds. If everyone calls we get 4.5:1 odds

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

who cares what better odds you are getting if you are still up against a set and a higher flush draw? If you think that when we improve we rate to have the best hand, why not shove and possibly increase our equity?

[ QUOTE ]


Calling here just entices them to put their money in by shoving and then you wind up calling off your stack in the same spot you could've been by shoving and possibly folding out better hands.

[ QUOTE ]


With a draw it only helps to fold better hands if you fold EVERY better hand...its not gonna happen.

If you push and get SB to call you get 2:1 odds. If you call MP calls and CO pushes you get about 4:1 odds on the push. Someone else pushing here is preferred.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

Ideally if you shove you would fold out any higher naked flush draws, no one is going anywhere with anything like two pair or a set. If I push and SB calls, he could have something as weak as AK or KQ since he seems like a donkey. If I call, MP calls, CO pushes (I don't even know where you're getting CO pushing from, or everyone calling wtf?????) we're going to be putting money in bad much more often.

Calling just gets you abused, and what happens when the turn blanks off and someone shoves then? You just threw away your flop call or you have to call off the rest of your stack bad on the turn.

Either fold, or take the line that has a chance of increasing your equity and guarantees that you see the river.

[prodonkey]

I agree 100% with BPS.. calling here is gross.. I think you overestimate these guys.. button could easily have air.. or A9 KT etc trying to take it down when everyone checked.. SB cr could easily be weak also trying to isolate a button bettor.. he could have as weak as KQ here IMO. Maybe he calls if u shove.. maybe he doesn't. Maybe he has a bigger flush draw.. then he obviously has no pair, if you make button fold then you turn your hand into a favorite.

Another reason not to call with this crap oop in raised pots.

[ADK]

im folding this preflop.. and i think calling here is ugly too, im either shoving or folding.

[Skleice]

[ QUOTE ]
I usually fold this PF

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. Suited connectors relate to small pocket pairs. They are good to get in cheap and see if you hit and get out unscaved if you wiff. This hand is fine to play in position cheaply, or to raise in position for deception, but not to call a raise of this size when you will be first of 5 players to act. You've put yourself in this marginal situation by calling pf.

[fees]

if ur a bbv poster u obv gamboo, otherwise foldaments

[Jouster777]

If we push assume MP and CO fold and if we call one of them comes along 40% of the time with a hand like KQ. I’ll calculate EV when we just call as if SB always gets all in on the turn (many other scenarios are possible but this is a likely one and one that is about “average” in terms of EV for the different scenarios). Under this assumption when we call we are paying $32 to win $75/$107/$139 with 1/2/3 villains. If we push we are putting in the same amount when only SB calls and we are putting in $62 to win $105 when we push and BTN comes along.

EVpush = .25[.24(105)-.76(62)]+.75[.41(75)-.59(32)]
= $3.35

EVcall = .4[.25(.42(107)-.58(32))+.75(.3(139)-.7(32))]+.6[.25(.41(75)-.59(32))+.75(.33(107)-.67(32))]
= $16.40
(If MP and CO never call if we call then this goes down to $13.40)

Pokerstove %’s given below for the different scenarios
BTN is given a top 15% range minus typical 3-bet hands for his PF action
SB assigned Kc6c c/w his actions and loose read. While he has a wider range this is simpler and numbers don’t change all that much if we give him almost any other made hand with the exception of a set. If he has a set then our EV goes down but the relative difference between calling and pushing is not going to be dramatically affected. Sometimes BTN will push, this also will reduce the EV’s calculated above but again the difference between calling and pushing is not going to be dramatically affected.

Pokerstove at this point against these 2:

Board: 9d Ks 6s
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 15.362% 15.25% 00.11% 7712 56.50 { JJ-99, 66, AsJs, AsTs, A9s, As8s, As7s, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, KTo+ }
Hand 1: 47.250% 47.14% 00.11% 23839 54.50 { Kc6c }
Hand 2: 37.387% 37.38% 00.00% 18904 2.00 { 9s7s }


BTN calls if we call with the following range
Board: 9d Ks 6s
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 22.236% 22.07% 00.16% 4385 32.50 { 99, 66, AsJs, AsTs, A9s, As8s, As7s, K9s+, QsJs, QsTs, KQo }
Hand 1: 44.294% 44.14% 00.15% 8769 30.50 { Kc6c }
Hand 2: 33.469% 33.46% 00.01% 6647 2.00 { 9s7s }


BTN calls if we push with the following range
Board: 9d Ks 6s
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.025% 48.88% 00.14% 2207 6.50 { 99, 66, K9s, QsJs, QsTs }
Hand 1: 26.944% 26.80% 00.14% 1210 6.50 { Kc6c }
Hand 2: 24.031% 24.03% 00.00% 1085 0.00 { 9s7s }

BTN is folding ~25% of the time if we call and ~75% of the time if we push (eyeballing it). Assume SB is never folding.

If checker comes along:
Hand 0: 24.453% 23.56% 00.89% 21642 816.00 { 99, 66, AsJs, AsTs, A9s, As8s, As7s, K9s+, QsJs, QsTs, KQo }
Hand 1: 37.007% 36.88% 00.12% 33875 112.00 { Kc6c }
Hand 2: 30.523% 30.51% 00.02% 28016 16.00 { 9s7s }
Hand 3: 08.017% 07.02% 00.99% 6451 912.00 { KQs, KQo }

Checker comes along but BTN folds:
Board: 9d Ks 6s
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 11.148% 10.93% 00.22% 592 12.00 { KQo }
Hand 1: 46.844% 46.62% 00.22% 2526 12.00 { Kc6c }
Hand 2: 42.008% 42.01% 00.00% 2276 0.00 { 9s7s }


If we are HU with SB then:
Board: 9d Ks 6s
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 58.586% 58.59% 00.00% 580 0.00 { Kc6c }
Hand 1: 41.414% 41.41% 00.00% 410 0.00 { 9s7s }

EV call is overestimated a bit by assuming SB never folds to a push and by assuming a limper always pays $18 to see a river card but these don't come close to making up the difference in calculated #'s. Did anyone get this far down?....I doubt it...oh well, I really do these calcualations for my own understanding and I just put them post them cuz I have them. Biggest assumption here: I can multiply.

[ama0330]

I fold this, you're probably sharing outs seeing as the pot is 3way, you have no FE, your draw is actually very weak, and you are pretty obviously behind. Easy fold.

[Jouster777]

My discussion above focused only on the relative merits of call vs. push. Fold is another matter. I still think we are EV+ here playing on but it all depends on the ranges we give to villains.

There's a lot of dead money in there even with a weak draw and the main villain (SB) is short making the dead money all that more important. What ranges are you assigning to BTN and SB to make you fold?

[Freelancer]

I fold this, but I also bet the flop...

Also I don't really mind the preflop call that much, a suited one gapper plays nicely in a big multiway pot.

I also would have bet the pot and fold due to higher flush draw or set possibilities and little FE. If you would have asked me a week ago I would probably shove /images/graemlins/wink.gif , had a bad experience with a OESFD against a flopped full house. Combo draws are great, but now I evaluate the situation more. Also at 25NL+ people still go broke with TPTK but less often.