50NL - 6max - AA

[Ryba]

I'm playing like 28/22 villian is decent 23/8, I dont think he leads with a flush draw here. Should i be just raising the flop here? As played what now on the turn?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($76.15)
SB ($129.56)
BB ($55.23)
UTG ($25.77)
MP ($50.70)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
UTG calls $0.50, MP calls $0.50, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $3</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG folds, MP calls $2.50.

Flop: ($7.25) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP bets $3.5</font>, Hero calls $3.50.

Turn: ($14.25) T/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP bets $10.5</font>, Hero ?

[RunDownHouse]

I'm also new to NL, so with that in mind, here are my thoughts:

I would be shocked if he bet the river with less than TP. He may have bet the turn with only one pair because it brought a handful of extra draws. That turn bet could be everything from a set to AJ to a draw himself.

If we can assume that he won't bet the river with one pair or less, and we can also assume that he'll call some amount with worse hands than hero's AA, how do we decide if we should call the ~2/3 pot turn bet and either fold to a river bet or bet the river ourself?

[mathemagician54]

things are easier when you raise the flop. But as played, if you just call you're clueless as to where you stand on the river and any sort of raise commits you, so it's really shove or fold, and that choice depends on how aggro the villain is

[GoadToad]

I would raise flop to $11. Why don't you think he leads half pot with a flush draw against someone who looks a little laggy? I would. You're high probability to c-bet, and high probability to c-bet more than half pot. I have a decent chance to set price for my draw. For the same reason, I would often c/c AJ against someone who seems laggy.

As played, he has increased his bet size. Is that normal top pair play for such a player? probably not. You don't say his postflop AF so it's hard to judge. Would he limp/call pf with QQ-KK? Sometimes for sure with pfr 8% (if that's over enough hands to be meaningful), but pby. less often than with 44 66 TT. So it's looking sketchy. With only this much information I'm calling down but quite possibly folding to anything large on river -- esp. if the flush or royal str. complete, making it even more likely I'm beat. In actual game, I'd almost always have some kind of info tipping me one way or the other, like has he increased bet size from street to street with top pair before.

If I did raise flop and am called and he bets 2/3 pot on turn, against such a player I pby fold. It's very player dependent. Against lots of villains I'd shove, but not one who looks rock-ish.

[mathemagician54]

well said

[whizzle]

Raise the flop... This smelss like a set or top pair. Raise to something like 11. If he comes over the top it's an easy fold if called bet the turn again.

No u don't have a clue if ur beat or not. As played call a turn bet and c/c river reasonable bet and c/f to a shove

[0evg0]

raise/folding flop is absolutely terrible

call flop, sometimes fold turn depending on timing tells and stuff. sometimes call turn and see how he acts on river, most likely fold river though.

[Ryba]

[ QUOTE ]
I would raise flop to $11. Why don't you think he leads half pot with a flush draw against someone who looks a little laggy? I would. You're high probability to c-bet, and high probability to c-bet more than half pot. I have a decent chance to set price for my draw. For the same reason, I would often c/c AJ against someone who seems laggy.

As played, he has increased his bet size. Is that normal top pair play for such a player? probably not. You don't say his postflop AF so it's hard to judge. Would he limp/call pf with QQ-KK? Sometimes for sure with pfr 8% (if that's over enough hands to be meaningful), but pby. less often than with 44 66 TT. So it's looking sketchy. With only this much information I'm calling down but quite possibly folding to anything large on river -- esp. if the flush or royal str. complete, making it even more likely I'm beat. In actual game, I'd almost always have some kind of info tipping me one way or the other, like has he increased bet size from street to street with top pair before.

If I did raise flop and am called and he bets 2/3 pot on turn, against such a player I pby fold. It's very player dependent. Against lots of villains I'd shove, but not one who looks rock-ish.

[/ QUOTE ]

Its a smallish sample, but he seemed good. Raise/fold flop sucks, and i dont think this is KK/QQ ever. I think hed check raise with a flush draw. I think this is a set alot, as this is how i'd play a set. His flop bet looked like it was ment to induce a raise, or you make a good point he can be trying to price in his flush draw. Calling sucks, so its either push or fold here.

[nukewell]

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is a set alot, as this is how i'd play a set. His flop bet looked like it was ment to induce a raise

[/ QUOTE ]

this is how i see it

he obviously isnt respecting your raise so if your image is on the tighter side then i probly find a fold here but maybe im being too weak

[whizzle]

why is raising the flop terrible? there is a flushdraw out there. He is getting perfect odds with his 1/2 PSB. he calls the limper and than calls the reraise.. I think he has a small PP or a SC here. He could easily be on a draw..

[Zaid_Ahmed]

[ QUOTE ]
raise/folding flop is absolutely terrible

call flop, sometimes fold turn depending on timing tells and stuff. sometimes call turn and see how he acts on river, most likely fold river though.

[/ QUOTE ]

NO

[eigenvalue]

Reraise the flop. As played, shove the turn.

[TheRenaissance]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
raise/folding flop is absolutely terrible

call flop, sometimes fold turn depending on timing tells and stuff. sometimes call turn and see how he acts on river, most likely fold river though.

[/ QUOTE ]

NO

[/ QUOTE ]

[eigenvalue]

What you don't recognize is that you are playing the hand as if you are on a flush draw! This might induce the higher bet on the turn! Looking back it's obvious that not reraising the flop is a huge error. If you reraise the flop, you can still fold to a shove. But you get more information about his hand than you have now. In the current spot, there are too many hands that could raise this board that you beat. Folding is weeeaaaaak!!!!!!!
Shove, but expect to loose 40% of the time.

[Ryba]

[ QUOTE ]
What you don't recognize is that you are playing the hand as if you are on a flush draw! This might induce the higher bet on the turn! Looking back it's obvious that not reraising the flop is a huge error. If you reraise the flop, you can still fold to a shove. But you get more information about his hand than you have now. In the current spot, there are too many hands that could raise this board that you beat. Folding is weeeaaaaak!!!!!!!
Shove, but expect to loose 40% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol i shoulda raised for information, but seriously since i hate folding and the fact that there were a few draws out there, i pushed. Results aside i lost to 66

[whizzle]

totally agree with eigenvalue...

[allaboutmyfetti]

i raise flop ... i'm willing to play for stacks here. JJ is unlikely b/c of PF ... if he has 44-66 oh well, at least we have a runner runner draw along with our 2-outer =)