JJ RR pot against a lag

[allaboutmyfetti]

villian is a 44/22/2.13 .. his raise flop % is 10 and his w2sd% is like 27 after 80 hands.

I have a note wondering if he is peelin me light since he peeled a while back on a K-high semi-wetish board but folded to my 2nd barrel ... could have been coincidence though. That was a raised pot, not a RR'd pot

Full Tilt Poker
$0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game
6 Players
LegoPoker Hand Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh)

<font color="black">Stack Sizes</font>
MP: $88.50
CO: $112
BTN: $88.45
SB: $38.25
Hero (BB): $49.5
UTG: $54.75

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> J/images/graemlins/spade.gif J/images/graemlins/club.gif ($0.75, 6 players)
UTG folds, <font color="red">MP raises to $1.75</font>, CO folds, BTN folds, SB folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $5.50</font>, MP calls $3.75

<font color="black">Flop:</font> Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($11.25, 2 players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $8.25</font>, MP calls $8.25

<font color="black">Turn:</font> Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif [8/images/graemlins/club.gif] ($27.75, 2 players)
Hero ??

Plan for rest of hand?

[Leviathan101]

AQ RRed pot?
Don't get the title.

I check it here.

[allaboutmyfetti]

uh i was thinking of a differnet hand when i made the title.

[allaboutmyfetti]

morning bump. title has been fixed =)

[.KeviN.]

check/call fishy bet

[Gustav]

Well I'm definitely checking here. And I think I'm folding to a proper bet. We're good very often here though, but everything else about the situation pretty much sucks.

[thefisherman]

Why is this a bad spot? I fire out again here or maybe go for a checkraise. You could very well represent AA or KK and get a fold. Also, the likelihood of the 8 helping is small since you've got two of the Js. Checking gives a flush draw a free card which seems like a bad idea.

[Machavelli]

[ QUOTE ]
check/call fishy bet

[/ QUOTE ]

[Gustav]

[ QUOTE ]
Why is this a bad spot? I fire out again here or maybe go for a checkraise. You could very well represent AA or KK and get a fold. Also, the likelihood of the 8 helping is small since you've got two of the Js. Checking gives a flush draw a free card which seems like a bad idea.

[/ QUOTE ]

Mostly it's a bad spot because putting in any significant amount of money here is going to leave us very close to pot commited on the river. At which point we're still OOP and still very much in the dark about villains hand.

And no, he's not folding a strong Q here. Probably not a weak Q either.

[allaboutmyfetti]

if we're c/cin a fishy bet, we're pretty much playin for stacks here right? If villian makes a $20 bet and we call, then we're basically getting better 4:1 on a river shove (folding the river makes 0 sense to me if u c/c the turn here). If we are basically goign to c/c any river, why not crai the turn?

[rakes.a.beach]

$20 isn't really a fishy bet. I think a fishy bet is more like 3. I expect him to make a fairly big bet if he does. Anyway, I'd try to get a check/check then check/fold if I don't improve on river.

[Gustav]

$20 definitely isn't what I would call a fishy bet. I was thinking more if he bets something ridiculous like $6.

edit: heh

[allaboutmyfetti]

oooooooooh i misundestood ... so our continuance on later streets is contingent on villian's bet sizing!?

[Pirelli]

I'd c/r AI. His range is very wide and he will call the push with a flush draw and some worse pocket pairs that aren't sets. Also, if you're currently beaten, you probably have 4 - 6 outs to the winning hand which will bail you out every once in a while.

If he checks behind, check/fold to a heart and probably check/call most other cards.

I think you are better off letting him bluff the river than value betting it when you still aren't sure exactly what he has.

[Big Poppa Smurf]

Just check-fold, his pre-flop stats are in no way really indicative of how he plays in 3bet pots or what he's going to show down here. If he was floating you on the flop so be it.

[gobby888]

[ QUOTE ]
villian is a 44/22/2.13 .. his raise flop % is 10 and his w2sd% is like 27 after 80 hands.


[/ QUOTE ]

Can someone please point me the correct direction - what do these stats mean and how do I calculate them? I can't find anything in the nl faq. Cheers in advance