Turn TPTK on a draw heavy board - Turn and River analysis

[DawnToDusk]

This will be a two part post. I am interested in the turn and river lines we can take in this hand. I will immediately reply to my OP with the river action (and subsequently what happened on the turn) and we will also discuss the river.

I followed this guy who was bluffing a lot of his chips away. At the same time he would get paid off too. I sit down with immediate position on him and watch the table. Overall its pretty loose. I see a lot of people limping and calling raises as well as people just cold-calling raises as well. I would say that PF hand ranges are very wide here. People are raising light and also calling light.

My Hand: A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif K/images/graemlins/spade.gif
My Position: UTG

$.25/$.50NL
Stack sizes
UTG(me): $121.89
MP: $74.20
CO: $27.35
BTN: $36.75
SB: $52.53
BB: $60.32

PF: SB posts $.25, BB posts $.50, Hero raises to $2, MP calls, CO folds, BTN calls, SB folds, BB calls.

Flop: 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q/images/graemlins/club.gif 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (PS: $8.25)
BB checks, Hero checks, MP checks, BTN bets $1, BB calls, Hero calls, MP calls.

Turn: K/images/graemlins/club.gif (PS: $14.25)
BB checks, Hero ???
<font color="blue">Peoples hand ranges right now are so wide I don't even know what to think. I think flush draws and TP or MP are what we are most likely looking at right now. The $1 bet from the BTN previous round doesn't say much either as I have no notes. He could have a flush draw too or something along those lines. Is this a spot where we want to bet here? I don't really want to build a big pot OOP on a draw heavy board but at the same time I feel like punching my nuts would be more productive than checking in this spot.</font>

So what do you think? I want to know why you either A)check in this spot or B)bet in this spot (and how much).

I will post the river action in about ten mins.

[losingdonkey]

I'd bet this out about 8-10. seems like these guys are drawing. If raised I'd probably fold.

[DawnToDusk]

So the turn played out and I bet $7. At the time it seemed like a good bet that would chase out some of the riff raff and get some of the weaker draws to fold. Gold star for that. At the same time I think a bigger bet wouldn't accomplish much more without taking on more risk. I don't plan on paying off any big bets here so I am not worried about offering to good of implied odds to my opponents and a raise to my $7 wouldn't be as bad as if my bet had been larger and got raised. So heres the turn action:

Turn: K/images/graemlins/club.gif (PS: $14.75)
BB checks, Hero bets $7, MP calls, BTN calls, BB folds.

River: K/images/graemlins/heart.gif (PS: $35.75)
Hero ???
<font color="blue">The good news: my hand improved. The bad news: I think we can narrow our opponents ranges a lot more after seeing the turn action in which case the river could of certainly helped a lot of my opponents hands too. After the turn bet by me I think we can put the MP on some sort of stronger draw or he may be sitting there with 2pair. He did kind of play the flop like a weiner so I think we can lean more towards draw. The button worries me more. He did bet the flop but didn't show much strength. None the less he could be sitting there with a draw, 2 pair or a set. Knowing this he could certainly have a better hand than me. Is this a spot where we want to bet for value? Or should we go for a check-call line as we don't get busted draws to call and more often than not we probably only get Qx to call and pay us off. The other times we get raised by better hand IMO. If you do bet, how much are you betting on the river?</font>

[losingdonkey]

I think I check the river. Both of them calling the turn is a red flag. They could have just missed their draws, or they could have boated up. Call up to 1/2 pot I think.

[Fleece]

its 3 handed dont check here as draws are most likely just going to check behind. bet 15-25 for value

[losingdonkey]

actually yeah, checking is a little weak here, going back over the hand I'd be surprised if you were behind.

[DawnToDusk]

Well ya I expect that. If I bet too in this spot the draws are just going to fold as well. So I guess my question is how often are we ahead in this hand to bet for value?

Another question, if you bet for value here what hand ranges to you put your opponent on?

[rakes.a.beach]

I'd try to squeeze the flop here as all looked pretty weak. You can rep QQ or a set. Raise to 8-9 on flop.

As played on turn, you gotta bet more than seven. Unless someone picked up two pairs w/ K6 or K2, your hand's got to be good. Bet 13 there and you have your hand defined. Then I'd check the river in most circumstances.

On river, a vbet of 25 looks good. And I'm calling a push after the 25 bet.

[Fleece]

your ahead most of the time and you maybe get called from Qx or TT/JJ with a thin valuebet. Also Kx calls

[DawnToDusk]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd try to squeeze the flop here as all looked pretty weak. You can rep QQ or a set. Raise to 8-9 on flop.

As played on turn, you gotta bet more than seven. Unless someone picked up two pairs w/ K6 or K2, your hand's got to be good. Bet 13 there and you have your hand defined. Then I'd check the river in most circumstances.

On river, a vbet of 25 looks good. And I'm calling a push after the 25 bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Squeeze isn't a bad idea but I feel like taking the odds I am given (assuming the MP behind doesn't raise) is a better idea. I might win the pot but I may be getting called often enough from the BTN where I don't want to create a big pot OOP with overs. Who knows who else will call too.

As far as your turn suggestion my main idea on the turn was pot control. I wanted to get out the riff raff and weakers pairs and draws without betting to much. Sure a bigger bet may be more effective, but I don't think its much more effective than the $7 bet for how much extra risk I am taking on (risk in the terms I get raised and have to fold to a large raise).

On the river though are you really calling a push. After how it was played? I guess what you are really hoping for is someone to turn over trip kings with a weaker kicker but I don't know how much we are going to see that hand after the way this hand was played.

[Fleece]

why would u want to fold the riff raff and weaker pairs? we bet turn for value from donks with mid pair and draws. i would bet 10 on turn

[DawnToDusk]

Any reasonable sized value bet on the turn is going to get the riff raff and weaker pairs to fold anyways. So betting on the turn for value will have 3 consequences.

A) I get people to fold (maybe everyone)
B) I get people with weaker hands to call or I get people with stronger hands to call
C) Someone with a stronger hand (or semi-bluffing) throws in a raise

If someone takes the C) option then if they size it right it will probably be to large for me to call. That goes for any sized value bet. So why bet more for value when A) you start to increase your bet size you get those weaker hands that you wanted to call actually start folding and B) a raise to your bet means most likely you have to fold so why lose more money when you have to fold?

Not harping on your ideas by the way. /images/graemlins/smile.gif This is good discussion here.

PS - Someone could run some numbers given certain scenarios. I would run them but I ran a ton of numbers last week given certain hands and just took a calc final today so I am done with numbers for a week. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Fleece]

10$ bet is not large it is only 2/3 pot. 1/2 pot is too small 3 handed given the drawness of the board. you want to get the most value outa draws dont price them in. ppl are rarelly semibluffing the turn givin flop action

[nukewell]

if your up against 2pr or a set on the turn u will face a raise due to the diamond draw 3 handed

the turn bet is good as u can see where your at and probably getting a Q and /images/graemlins/diamond.gif draw to call

i see u as being in front on the river and like a value bet, about 20 -25 and hope a Q calls

[delta k]

a hand that beats yours raises the turn. thus bet this river since a Q is checking and a weaker K may as well call our bet when we pick the size.