25NL: AA hand I hate

[Brian O'Nolan]

Villain is 40/20/1, has avoided mixing it up with me while we're deep... BB is crazy sicko. Alternates/river plan? I hate my line thus far but can't see raising w/ passive villain leading into me being good. I kinda wanted to fold the turn, is that v. bad?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Button ($27.25)
SB ($25.80)
BB ($26.05)
UTG ($28.95)
MP ($97.20)
Hero ($70.10)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $1</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $4</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls $3.75, MP calls $3.

Flop: ($12.10) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP bets $7.5</font>, Hero calls $7.50, BB folds.

Turn: ($27.10) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP bets $15</font>, Hero calls $15.

[the machine]

tough one. really odd line for him to take since its 3bet pre and hes not aggro and hes leading into you. id probably jack the flop up though and call a shove. it seems like you are indeed behind on the turn though. being about 300BB deep i think im letting go of this on the turn because the pot will now be real big and you will have a tough river decision

[Panic__NL]

reraise his donkbet on the flop, if he calls, fold the turn if he bets again.

[MrBerlin]

[ QUOTE ]
reraise his donkbet on the flop, if he calls, fold the turn if he bets again.

[/ QUOTE ]

#2

[Brian O'Nolan]

[ QUOTE ]
reraise his donkbet on the flop, if he calls, fold the turn if he bets again.

[/ QUOTE ]
If I'm going to raise the flop I'm felting this- pot is 12, he leads for 7.5, I raise to 25, villain calls, $60 pot and I have ~ $40 left. What do you think villain's range is leading this flop?

[matrix]

I like calling down here.

It's a re-raised pot and a dry flop.

If we raise the flop he folds everything we beat and calls with stuff that we're behind.

I'd be nervous as he's passive and is betting - but I think an overpair is good here lots - so I'm happy to call down keep some measure of pot control and take this to the felt.

If he has something like QT here we got plenty outs to river him - if he has a set we get stacked - if he's drawing to the straight I want to keep him semi-bluffing and not blow him out of this pot.

If we're going to raise anywhere then push the turn I think.

[xorthio]

i would raise the flop here, no reason to think you are behind, you love to get some value out of AQ there, after your call he could have a lot of hands on turn. if you raise flop and he comes over the top i suppose you can throw it away

[Jouster777]

With this line I'd put villain on a set, QTs, AA/KK, AQ, KQ. He's very loose preflop meaning a PAF of 1 is not all that passive (he bets as often as he calls and he has substandard hands postflop). Since hero has a read that villain is avoiding him I'd exclude preflop calls with QTo and discount KQ by 50%. This leaves:
11 combos that beat us
24 combos we beat
1 combo we chop

I prefer a flop raise and we should get action from everything except maybe KQ. If 3-bet we can let it go. If called we now have the initiative and we can check turn for pot control and inducement.

As played, villain's turn raise is pretty weak and I still expect we are ahead but since we called the flop there's no real reason to wake up now. On the river I don't like a call anything go to the felt plan...he should slow down with a pair or worse absent a very different read. I'd call moderate river bets and fold to a push. If villain checks river I bet moderately...if he's trapping there he gets my stack but that is a low risk.