Strange bet got me confused

[mvdgaag]

Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.02/$0.04
9 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Pre-flop: (9 players) hero is SB with 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9/images/graemlins/club.gif
7 folds, <font color="#cc0000">hero raises to $0.16</font>, <font color="#cc0000">BB raises to $0.28</font>, hero calls.

Flop: 4/images/graemlins/club.gif K/images/graemlins/club.gif A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif ($0.56, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">hero bets $0.5</font>, BB calls.

Turn: 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($1.56, 2 players)
hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">BB bets $0.3</font>, hero folds.
Uncalled bets: $0.3 returned to BB.

Results:
Final pot: $1.56

He hesitated (or wresled with the slider) a bit too long before he bet the $0.3... I put him on a weak ace or king but somehow it didn't feel right and I folded. I think I should have reraised to a bit over pot here and would have made him fold. What do you guys think this rediculous bet means? He's 27/11. I've seen him fold to some action before after defending his blind.

Edit: Can't find the stack sizes... We both had around 5

[prodonkey]

You realize you have 9 high right and were reraised preflop?

[mvdgaag]

Yes I do. It was a blind battle and it was obviously a bluff. He was defending his blind earlyer with a weak ace and I figured I would be able to push him off... I still think I should have raised, but I'm confused about the small bet.

[Jestli]

ya just fold and dont worry about that wierd bet u were beat so unless u just wanted to go all in and try to bluff him it was just a hand that was gonna cost u more money then it was worth, and as far as battling for the blind id at least start with somewhat of a hand 39o is just so terribly weak

[Mal_Pais]

Preflop, fold the first time around and definitely fold to the reraise.

In a $5 game, you can't find a player that can fold a weak Ace preflop. That's not a criticism of this level, just a humble observation that I learned over 27k hands there.

[mrcfkane]

not a fan of any part of the play at all
-you know he defends his blinds
-call his reraise
-and your holding has virtually no potential of finishing a good hand that can get paid off

if you want to take his blinds you're better off limping in, then try to take it on the flop...it'll cost about half as much

[Antinome]

This is not worth doing.

Consider how many times basic SB stealing must work to be profitable in the long term. He, or his ilk will fold x percent of the time to the raise, and y percent of the time to a cbet.

x(.06)+(1-x)y(.16)-(1-x)(1-y)(.5)=0

say y=.7, which is optimistic.

+.06x+.112(1-x)-.15(1-x)=0
+06x+.112-.112x-.15+.15x=0
+.098x-.038=0
x=.39

I'm neglecting the times you hit the flop hard, but given your hand in this case, I think we can safely assume that will be &lt;2%.

So far, this plan is just barely reasonable. This is why we steal here in the first place. Even the garbage hands can be raised if we believe some combination of x and y with a given villian add up to &gt;0.

I also neglected the times he reraises and you FOLD. Why neglect it? Because he wont reraise often, the pot will still be small, and occassionally you will have a real hand that you can go to war with. We just assume these things cancel out.

They won't if you call here.

If we have to add z, the chance he reraises and you call, and then throw in all the probabilities downstream of that, which mostly involve you losing a big pot relative to the blinds, even if z=.02 you are going to end up with a big equation that adds up to gradually going BUSTO.

If you want to have it go in the other direction, try figuring out how to tilt the odds in your favor. Perhaps raising 3BB instead of 4BB does not change x. Can you see how exploitable that is? Suppose you gave up half your SBs for free, but only stole with the top 50% of hands, and that did not affect x? Suppose you never stole the BB, but he would always react as though you were? How is that exploitable?

I'm afraid that if He were here, he'd reach out with his noodly appendage and smack you upside the head right through the conveniently tubelike orifices of the internet. It is that bad. It may even cause global warming.

[MrMysterious]

lol?

[Spanky1974]

Fold PF, CF turn. There is no value in trying to outplay him here.

[spyderracing]

Is there something I'm missing here? Fold pf!
Don't get fancy at $4nl.

[Michael Fish]

Fold preflop, and as is open fold flop /images/graemlins/smile.gif Never bluff these stakes ever.

[ QUOTE ]
9 Players

[/ QUOTE ]
Full ring forum please, i'm a stickler for this stuff /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[dirtylobster]

LOL/OMG/ROFL

Just go all-in on the turn!! /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[eigenvalue]

IS THIS A JOKE?

[mvdgaag]

Thanx all, I think I should have posted a blind battle where I wasn't bluffing... Obviously normally I fold this preflop. The quesion was mostly about the strange bet. I was representing a premium hand from the start and now he does this?! Huge hand, or scare/feeler-bet?.

I know I shouldn't get fancy at 5NL, but its all my BR allows since I'm a student /images/graemlins/smile.gif. I'm bored of straightforward poker and I don't mind experimenting a bit if it's gonna be a bit less profitable. After all I need to learn this as well, better do it el cheapo when I'm still at 5NL.

Antinome: Thanx for the math explanation!