QQ - Overpair and Flush draw on flop in RR pot, lead into. $50nl

[Zaid_Ahmed]

Not my usual game, but trying to build a bankroll on Stars using aggressive bankroll management as a mini experiment. Villian in the pot is a 200nl regular and a friend of mine and we discuss many hands between us. Villian has been running at 31/23/2.3. I realise I made a standard mistake preflop by raising too little. I am aware of this so no need to mention it.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($61.60)
SB ($32)
BB ($50.35)
UTG ($96.75)
MP ($50)
CO ($16.85)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $2</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls $2, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $7</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG calls $5, CO calls $5.

Flop: ($21.75) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $20</font>, CO calls $9.85 (All-In), <font color="#CC3333">Hero ?

<font color="black">
What do people think? Obviously a raise/fold situation. If you feel Villian might have a set, is this still a push? Also we have to assume we have little fold equity (unless villian has total air but with the short-stack involved he wouldn't lead for $20 with air) due to how inflated the pot has become. </font>

[Atlanta Andrew]

IT's a tough spot to be in against a good, aggressive opponent. Hands like:

T /images/graemlins/heart.gif T /images/graemlins/club.gif
J /images/graemlins/heart.gif J /images/graemlins/spade.gif
A /images/graemlins/heart.gif K /images/graemlins/club.gif

are a large part of villain's potential holdings. The only other hands I can see villain leading with so strongly are a set or a small flush (for protection). Small flush is kind of unlikely given pre-flop, but I'm sure this guy has some moves up his sleeve too.

A /images/graemlins/heart.gif Ax and K /images/graemlins/heart.gif Kx are the two worst hands you could be up against, but villain probably 4-bets those pre-flop so we can't worry too much about them.

I guess it's a shove, and I expect to see semi-bluffs quite often and suck out on his sets the rest of the time!

I'd be very interested to hear what he had once you get enough replies.

-Andrew

[_TKO_]

FWIW, I think the preflop raise is fine.

Looks like villian has a set or semi-bluff overs (EDIT: plus a strong possibility of a made flush). I think I fold this and feel okay about it.

[ekabe]

The PFR is good, I think the CO would have quite a wide calling range in the short stack. Hands like 10-10, J-J you are a favorite but the UTG could easily be pushing his low pocket pair set.

If you call here you would likely be facing a decision for all your chips on the turn so I think a fold here is good.

[Atlanta Andrew]

[ QUOTE ]
FWIW, I think the preflop raise is fine.

Looks like villian has a set or semi-bluff overs (EDIT: plus a strong possibility of a made flush). I think I fold this and feel okay about it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is villain going to lead for a full pot-sized bet with a made flush? Unless it's an unlikely small flush that's vulnerable, I think villain would be betting something like $12 with A /images/graemlins/heart.gifK /images/graemlins/heart.gif. Or he could be trying to level hero by making his bet look like a semi-bluff. I dunno.

[SilentNoise]

Lets assume for a moment that villan has no fold equity when pushing allin on the flop since:
i) when hero pushes there is so much in the pot villan probably calls with any decent holding
ii) villan is never bluffing with shortstack in the hand

On the flop the pot is 22$, villan bets 55$(how much hero has left, which is effectively what the 20$ bet is, a bet which forces hero to play for his stack), along with the shorstack's 10$ call makes the pot 87$, 55$ to call.

Lets assume villan's range for calling the preflop 3bet is made up of any pocket pair, up to and including JJ. and given that villan knows hero is capable of 3betting light on the button, A10s,AJo+,78s-10Js, while probably 4betting AK against a button 3bet squeeze.

Here are the results of QQ vs his possible range of JJ-88,44,AhQh,AhJh,AhTh,KhQh,JhTh,JsTs,Jh9h,Th9h,Th8h ,9h8h,8h7h,7h6h,AcQh,AdQh,AhQc,AhQd,AhQs,AsQh,AcJh ,AdJh,AhJc,AhJd,AhJs,AsJh which includes a few medium suited gappers that i think a 30/20 will be raising utg (ill tell you why i think so later).

This range assumes villan fastplays his strong hands (villan is a 2p2er, and this is standard 2p2 strategy), and that villan 4bets AK preflop.

Hand 0: 62.564% { QcQh }
Hand 1: 37.436% { JJ-88, 44, AhQh, AhJh, AhTh, KhQh, JhTh, JsTs, Jh9h, Th9h, Th8h, 9h8h, 8h7h, 7h6h, AcQh, AdQh, AhQc, AhQd, AhQs, AsQh, AcJh, AdJh, AhJc, AhJd, AhJs, AsJh }

suppose we imagine villan isn't calling the 3bet with as many suited connectors and none of the suited one gappers, and isn't pushing with 10s/Js since he wants to keep pot small with marginal overpairs here...

Hand 0: 41.471% { QcQh }
Hand 1: 58.529% { 99-88, 44, AhQh, AhJh, JhTh, Th9h, 9h8h, AhQc, AhQd, AhQs, AhJc, AhJd, AsJh }

as a sort of comprimise, lets say villan DOES push with 10s and Js if he has a heart in his hand..which comes out to this:

Hand 0: 55.174% { QcQh }
Hand 1: 44.826% { JcJh, JdJh, JhJs, TcTh, TdTh, ThTs, 99-88, 44, AhQh, AhJh, JhTh, Th9h, 9h8h, AhQc, AhQd, AhQs, AhJc, AhJd, AsJh }

Lets assume all 3 of these ranges are equally likely, then i think its called baysian hand analysis shows you the odds you require against villan's range of holdings, or even villan's range of possible ranges...the forumla is this...read it in2p2 mag a few years ago:

Odds required on call = (% time villan holds range#1)*(hero's equity vs this range) + (% time villan holds range#2)*(heros equity against this range)

=&gt; Odds required on call = (0.33*0.62) + (0.33*0.41) + (0.33*0.55) = 0.2+0.13+0.18 = 0.51 =&gt; even money required on call

Going back to size of pot and the bet..hero is getting 87-55 on the call or 1.5-1...so its a call. I personally think villan is more likely to be doing it with hand range 2...and i didn't factor that into the calculation for simplicity ...the more likely it is to be done with hand range 2...the less of a call it should be. But in the heat of battle, its definately a call...looks like a marginal situation either way. (not much difference in EV in the long run).

So basically it is not a call becase villan cold have this or that or whatever, its because against villans range , and the odds your getting on your call (or push which will obviously be called)..

[fees]

all in=D

[SilentNoise]

obviosly nobody noticed some nonsensical hands in the first range analysis from pokerstove...thoghti had gotten rid of the 10J and 89 hands which werent 10hJh and whatever.

[barryc83]

Well assuming villain isnt [censored] around and playing back at you just bc hes your buddy I felt this. He prob doesnt lead if he has AhAx or KhKx right? He would do it with AA/KK with no heart prob though and also with a lone Ah. I make it $9 pf all day against a villain like this too. The only hand that he might have that has us crushed is KhKx with this action IMO.