please help HERO with 2 pair on flop after reraise!!

[LuckySal]

i've been raising allot, so i decided to limp with suited aces

villain= 14/10/2


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) internettexasholdem.com (http://www.internettexasholdem.com)

Button ($154.80)
SB ($46.25)
BB ($49.25)
Hero ($72.30)
MP ($54.70)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
Hero calls $0.50, MP calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($2) J/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $2.5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $7.5</font>, SB folds, BB folds,


HERO??

should i shove/reraise, call or fold

[_TKO_]

I don't think he'll stack off with one pair or a FD. I'm probably willing to stack off here, so I'd either 3bet (little value in shoving against this seemingly nitty villian) and try to get it in before a club falls and kills the action, or call now and CRAI the non-club turn.

[theflyingcow]

Yeah I agree, little value in shoving now. 3-betting probably works best as he'll fold his flush draws, but pay-off with other hands. AA/JJ unlikely since there was no raise preflop given his PT stats (though some people play JJ for set value, I doubt this guy's one of them). I'd just be wary of AJ/66, but I think his most likely holding is a superdraw (like KcQc), in which case pray the 6c falls.

[Miko]

Villain is 14/10 and limps. Hmm.. What hands do we put him on? Mostly low pp's and little suited connectors.

I think a read is important here. Did you see him pulling of a semi-bluff in the past?

Call me nitty, but I think this is really close to a fold. But definitely backing off when he calls my 3bet.

[_TKO_]

I think AJ is in his range as well, but so are plain flush draws. I'll agree that it's an awkward board to flop top-and-bottom on.

[Miko]

[ QUOTE ]
I think AJ is in his range as well, but so are plain flush draws. I'll agree that it's an awkward board to flop top-and-bottom on.

[/ QUOTE ]

AJ in his range? I really don't think he's limping AJ there. He's 14/10...

[_TKO_]

Hm, AJs maybe. Good point, though. I'm not always sure how stats match up with ranges. It's a good guideline but never completely reliable. Let's just say that if he showed me AJ, I wouldn't be surprised.

[Miko]

[ QUOTE ]
Hm, AJs maybe. Good point, though. I'm not always sure how stats match up with ranges. It's a good guideline but never completely reliable. Let's just say that if he showed me AJ, I wouldn't be surprised.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pokey made a great post on adjusting ranges to stats... It's the "incredible long guide to hand reading" post.

EDIT: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...part=1&amp;vc=1 (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&amp;Number=8629256&amp;page=0&amp;fpart=1&amp;v c=1)

np.

[LuckySal]

Forgot to say. That sample size on villain is very small (50 hands)

To be honest I have no clear reads on villain

[Miko]

[ QUOTE ]
Forgot to say. That sample size on villain is very small (50 hands)

To be honest I have no clear reads on villain

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, that makes it a clear 3bet for me.

[LuckySal]

villain did show a set of 66's

you still think this is EV+ in the long term???

[AliasMrJones]

I also can't figure out many/any hands villain is limping with after a limper. 66, I'd be raising, AJ, I'm def raising. Suited connectors, I'd be raising.

This is a very weird spot. Even though, I wouldn't do it, I do think 66 makes the most sense.

[kaz2107]

im actaully think a combo draw here is most likely. there is only 1 combo of 66 left in tha deck so super unlikley that he has that. he is prolly raisin AJ+ so i doubt that can b in his range and J6 cant either. leavin me with tha idea of either sumtin like KT or KQ of clubs as well as 6x of clubs. given that im prolly raising here and lookin to get it all in.

[Miko]

[ QUOTE ]
villain did show a set of 66's

you still think this is EV+ in the long term???

[/ QUOTE ]

I rule!

[Miko]

Assuming I 3bet here and he pushes. I think we can safely call, right?

I discounted a few suited broadway's cause I think they're a bit more unlikely due to the fact he seems quite decent and that are hands that would be folded more easily then the other hands in the range.

EDIT:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

4,950 games 0.005 secs 990,000 games/sec

Board: Jc 6h Ac
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.455% 41.45% 10.00% 2052 495.00 { Ad6d }
Hand 1: 48.545% 38.55% 10.00% 1908 495.00 { 66, A6s, KcJc, QcJc, 8c6c, 7c6c, 6c5c }

[ QUOTE ]
Villain is 14/10 and limps. Hmm.. What hands do we put him on? Mostly low pp's and little suited connectors.

I think a read is important here. Did you see him pulling of a semi-bluff in the past?

Call me nitty, but I think this is really close to a fold. But definitely backing off when he calls my 3bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with Miko here. 66 is very likely given his vpip and pf raise stats. Looks like villain limps small pps. AJ, AK, AQ make no sense here. I would either min 3 bet him and fold to resistance or fold.

just see that the results where allready posted ! Makes me look kind of lame. Only had read upto Miko`s 1st response when I posted.

[theRoot]

This is an awkward hand. 66 would definitely be the most obvious hand he'd be limping with. But since you have the second 6 it makes it three times as unlikely that he has it.

His raise on the flop give you no certainties whatsoever. I'd elect to reraise here, hoping to punish the draw. If he reraises all-in, I'd fold. If he calls I'm pushing a blank turn.

I don't like to call his reraise on the flop, because you'll probably be facing an equally tough decision... out of position again. I want to find out where I stand on the flop.
I also don't like a fold, because your hand is simply too strong. Even though villain has a tight limping range, it doesn't mean he's not capable of making a move.