50NL, AKs flops FD and turns a pair, but action explodes

[_TKO_]

UTG+1 is 36/2.6/1.41.
BB is 42/12/3.86.
No other reads.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
6 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
Hero: $61.80
UTG+1: $50.75
CO: $56.30
Button: $15.60
SB: $49.70
BB: $77.30

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif A/images/graemlins/heart.gif
<font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $2</font>, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif Q/images/graemlins/club.gif 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($8, 4 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">BB bets $6.5</font>, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, SB folds.

Turn: K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif ($27.5, 3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 is all-in $42.25</font>, BB folds, Hero ...

[OrBit]

That's really hard...I don't think he'd be calling anything pre flop there Q4, Q2, K4, or K2. Maybe he has two pair or a set..but thats a really weird bet to make when checked to...

Two weeks ago I would have respected him and folded.

Right now, I'm calling every large bet in sight and I probably would call.

I think there's a decent chance he's doing this on a flush draw...which in that case your way ahead with TPTK and the nut flush draw...

On the other hand your exactly 25/75 against KsQs....

I'd be suprised to see how this turned out...

[prodonkey]

Guess you should have raised the flop.

[and12006]

I'd probley call this unless you've read him for KQ, though have a lot of outs to win the hand if you are behind, and you have TPTK, I like pushing with my NFD+pair but he already did that for you I'd most likely call.

[DawnToDusk]

Ugg. I think this hand would be a lot easier to decide what to do if you had any reads at all. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Well lets just by looking at the money odds that you are being offered. You are calling $42.25 to win $69.75. Thats ~1.65-to-1 odds. Not the best but given how the hand was played maybe enough. Lets take a look at it.

You raised PF and got called in two spots by less than stellar opponents. Not bad. You have a hand so your raise PF was certainly for value (and against these opponents your value may even go up when they call PF). You also have position on most of them. So not the worst of results.

Flop hits you in the sense that you can make the nut flush and also hold two overs to the board. Not a bad result. SB checks and then the BB bets right into. His range is so wide right now he could be sitting there with a flush draw, a Q, or even an Ax or even some other weird cards. Hes pretty aggressive so this fits with his profile. You call which makes sense too. A raise may help win the pot here, but you don't want to bet your poor opponents off marginal hands in this spot.

The turn was a K. Great! You got TPTK kicker now with the nut flush draw. BB checks and then you check... Hmmm... I think this is a spot where I bet. The BB checks which shows that he might of just been taking a stab at the pot or his hand is of minimal strength. He could of just been betting it in hopes that you guys missed and when he was called in two spots gave up. I think the right bet here is in lines of $17-$20 dollars. If they are more inclined to call big bets with marginal hands I would obviously bet the larger amount, but right now the name of the game is betting an amount your opponent can't call profitably but keeping it small enough so he can call. If one of your opponents pushed over you I would call this too.

Well as played you checked and the other UTG plalyer pushes all-in over you. Well now its just a simple game of odds. Since there is no more betting in the future the pot is laying you X dollars for the Y dollars you have to put in. Put some hand ranges on your vill and do some quick rough calculations.

Lets just say for arguments that your opponent is bluffing/semi-bluffing here 40% of the time. It might make sense. What hands could possibly call this board here after a bet of that size? Not a lot so it looks like he is pushing out marginal hands. Not only that but what good hand is going to extract any value here with a bet of that size? Nada. So I assign a higher bluffing frequency here. Maybe 30%. I give another 10% for semi-bluffs. Maybe he a flush draw or a Q or some other combination of hand that can beat you on the river. For simplicity sake I will combine the two to 40%. 20% of the hands are beating you. Maybe he has some combination of two pair or a set. Thats a bummer. But some of the times you will outdraw him by the river. For simplicity sake I will just assume you lose when you call those hands. The other 40% of the hands you beat. Maybe he pushed with something like Kx or Qx. He could outdraw you still but maybe he doesnt and you win. So for simplicity sake I will say you win on the river.

So % you win on the river is 80% and the times you lose on the river is 20%. So four times out of five you are going to win or roughly 5-to-4 odds. Thats 1.25-to-1 and the money is offering you 1.65-to-1. So with those frequencies you can call. /images/graemlins/smile.gif Obviously you won't be able to do calculations like these at the table but if you got any reads on your opponents you might be able to make some judgements to how often they will play one way and then base your results off of those. Why don't you tweak the numbers (the frequencies that they are bluffing, you are beating them, they are beating you) and see what happens to your numbers and how much money you need in the pot. Also change it dependent on the opponent. Maybe a TAGgy opponent pushed (for whatever reason). See what happens.

[_TKO_]

[ QUOTE ]
Guess you should have raised the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Against a 3/4P bet, I think villian has some piece, likely a good Q or better. I think raising is just spewing, but folding is way too weak. Plus, I'm in position, so I can extract a little more value if my flush hits, or save $$ if he goes wild on the turn.

[_TKO_]

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is a spot where I bet [the turn].

[/ QUOTE ]

Looking at this hand after the fact, I also think I should have bet the turn. However, I felt that the bet/check line taken by BB kind of smelled, and the overcall by UTG suggests a slowplay or a weaker draw. My logic at the time was that I didn't really have much of a hand to protect and there might be additional value in letting BB stab the river. UTG's bet was way out of character and surprised the hell out of me. I ran down the clock debtaing my decision.

[DawnToDusk]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think this is a spot where I bet [the turn].

[/ QUOTE ]

Looking at this hand after the fact, I also think I should have bet the turn. However, I felt that the bet/check line taken by BB kind of smelled, and the overcall by UTG suggests a slowplay or a weaker draw. My logic at the time was that I didn't really have much of a hand to protect and there might be additional value in letting BB stab the river. UTG's bet was way out of character and surprised the hell out of me. I ran down the clock debtaing my decision.

[/ QUOTE ]

Certainly possible that the BB was kind of fishy. You did say you had no reads though so I would just make the assumption that the BB bet something of some sort on the flop and when he saw that he was called by two he gave up or slowed down a lot. If you do have some read on the BB that he might continue in this spot then a check could be in line.

You do say that you didn't really have much of a hand to protect. It may be easy to say this, but if you give a range to your opponents you might find that you have a lot of equity in this hand as opposed to your other opponents. If you did have a considerable amount of equity this might be a spot where we want to bet so we can protect our hand.

[ekabe]

On the flop a call is pretty standard I think, there are people to act after you so the more money in the pot if you hit your nut flush the easier it will be to induce larger bets. I think raising the BB on your semibluff would be a good play in a heads up pot but in this multi one a call is fine.

I think KQ 2pair or JT on a straight and flush draw might be possible holdings. At this point it is really down to the numbers as DawntoDusk said. It could be a coinflip or you could be in as a 3:1 underdog. I would probably call but thats cause I like a gamble /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[prodonkey]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Guess you should have raised the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Against a 3/4P bet, I think villian has some piece, likely a good Q or better. I think raising is just spewing, but folding is way too weak. Plus, I'm in position, so I can extract a little more value if my flush hits, or save $$ if he goes wild on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Raising with 2 overs and the nut flush draw is rarely if ever going to be spew.. You're neglecting fold equity you have. You're calling hoping your 4:1 shot comes in where you can extract "a little" more value, when you very well might be able to take the pot down right there.. or at least get it in as a coin flip if the guy actually has a hand and calls.

[RicP]

Like prodonkey says... you have to play combo draws fast

Please check out Tien's Post (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&amp;Number=7828437&amp;page=0&amp;vc=&amp;PHPSE SSID=#Post7828437) for playing combo draws at 6-max

[fees]

this is an insta-call

I would fold this. villain has KQ in my opinion. he is goind all in hoping to trap somebody with AK and to avoid anybody from drawing to a flush. Also I usualy reraise this draw, but calling in position is also ok I think.

Just checked he is a 75% to 25% favorite if he is holding KQ.

[prodonkey]

If you get to the turn in this manner I think you have to lay it down.

[BlueSmurf]

So, what happened?

Smurf

[Jouster777]

[ QUOTE ]
If you get to the turn in this manner I think you have to lay it down.

[/ QUOTE ]UTG+1's stats suggest that he isn't making a move here. Maybe he could have J/images/graemlins/heart.gifT/images/graemlins/heart.gif but usually he has a set or KQ almost all the time. We have 9-12 outs and have to fold.

Flop...we have A high and a huge draw with position on the bettor and the possibility that 2 more players come along. If we raise we will usually be heads up and possibly with our stack in on a coinflip at best (FE vs. all ~0). OTOH, if we call and get anyone else coming along we are in much better shape.

I'm not sure why OP didn't bet the turn. Being results oriented, it probably just saves us a bet here...fold.