Biggest -EV gamble I have EVER seen. [Archive]

Posty123

02-13-2006, 02:28 AM

Apollo Ono was in second place and moments away from quallifying for the finals in speed ice skating, the event he just spent four years training for. At the last second he decided to pass the leader. There was no reason to do this. There was nothing to gain by going for first. He could only increase his chance of tripping and not quallifying for the finals, which he did. He had his spot locked up for the finals and made the bigeest -EV gamble I have ever seen with my own eyes.

Seen anything worse? We're talking gambling four years of your life and a lifetime of regret on a gamble with nothing to win!

CommanderCorm

02-13-2006, 02:33 AM

I´ve lost a bottle of vodka betting that bumblebees have no stings. That was many years ago.

slickpoppa

02-13-2006, 02:39 AM

Cliff Claven going all-in in Final Jeopardy

astroglide

02-13-2006, 02:43 AM

that was pretty sick

Posty123

02-13-2006, 02:44 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Cliff Claven going all-in in Final Jeopardy

[/ QUOTE ]

Nice. That was only $20,000 though, wasn't it? And he had a chance at $40,0000.

bdk3clash

02-13-2006, 02:53 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Cliff Claven going all-in in Final Jeopardy

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah, but to be fair, those people hadn't ever been in his kitchen. He was robbed!

Actually one of the worst betting strategies on Jeopardy I've seen in a while was the guy who set the record for most wins/biggest winner a few years ago. Given that he nailed the final Jeopardy question a vast majority of the time it pissed me off that he didn't wager as much as possible while still guaranteeing victory (meaning he'd end up with more than twice what his closest opponent went into final Jeopardy with.) He was getting 1:1 on his money and was clearly getting an overlay no matter what the category.

DemonDeac

02-13-2006, 03:07 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Cliff Claven going all-in in Final Jeopardy

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah, but to be fair, those people hadn't ever been in his kitchen. He was robbed!

Actually one of the worst betting strategies on Jeopardy I've seen in a while was the guy who set the record for most wins/biggest winner a few years ago. Given that he nailed the final Jeopardy question a vast majority of the time it pissed me off that he didn't wager as much as possible while still guaranteeing victory (meaning he'd end up with more than twice what his closest opponent went into final Jeopardy with.) He was getting 1:1 on his money and was clearly getting an overlay no matter what the category.

[/ QUOTE ]

it was cuz he was mormon

Justin A

02-13-2006, 03:08 AM

TripleH68

02-13-2006, 03:11 AM

This race is on NBC right now I think.

tom10167

02-13-2006, 03:13 AM

He said "I was in second and I didn't want to be in second with just one lap to go."

Maybe he forgot that top 3 qualify?

*sigh*

bdk3clash

02-13-2006, 03:36 AM

[ QUOTE ]
That guy had other motives at hand besides making the most money though. He was betting based on utility rather than money.

[/ QUOTE ]
Could you elaborate? I'm not getting it. /images/graemlins/confused.gif

rlr

02-13-2006, 03:41 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe he forgot that top 3 qualify?

[/ QUOTE ]

Top two.

Sponger.

02-13-2006, 03:55 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Actually one of the worst betting strategies on Jeopardy I've seen in a while was the guy who set the record for most wins/biggest winner a few years ago. Given that he nailed the final Jeopardy question a vast majority of the time it pissed me off that he didn't wager as much as possible while still guaranteeing victory (meaning he'd end up with more than twice what his closest opponent went into final Jeopardy with.) He was getting 1:1 on his money and was clearly getting an overlay no matter what the category.

[/ QUOTE ]

You obviously don't watch much Jeopardy. Pretty much every other day someone [censored] up on the correct betting strategy. You'd think after spending their whole lives learning they would have figured out that its a freakin game show and there is tons of strategy as to what to bet on FJ.

Also, if Ken Jennings bet the max on every lock game (65 of 75) he had, he would have won an extra $120,000~ ($2,520,700). He was obviously better than 50% to get the FJ right, and he got 68% of FJs correct.

csuf_gambl0r

02-13-2006, 04:42 AM

[ QUOTE ]
He said "I was in second and I didn't want to be in second with just one lap to go."

Maybe he forgot that top 3 qualify?

*sigh*

[/ QUOTE ]

sigh some peope, only the TOP TWO qualify, do you even know how to spell poker?

I saw it too, I was in heartbreak when it happened. But like he said in his post tournament interview, there was one lap to go and so taking first was the smart thing to do. Being in 2nd with a lap to go is very dangerous. The guy took a shot and missed, nothing more to it then that.

JaredL

02-13-2006, 05:09 AM

Just watched it. The announcer was great something like "It would have been a good move if it had worked but it wasn't necesary." Talk about being results oriented.

KaneKungFu123

02-13-2006, 06:58 AM

how close was the guy in third place, i mean if he was in position to pass 1st skater then he probably didnt need to pass.

Evan

02-13-2006, 07:31 AM

[ QUOTE ]
how close was the guy in third place, i mean if he was in position to pass 1st skater then he probably didnt need to pass.

[/ QUOTE ]
From watching short track speed sakting briefly tonight, you're always close to everyone. First palce and last place are like 5 ft. from each other. I think it was generally accepted that Ohno was the fastest guy though, so it was probably a pretty stupid move.

MCS

02-13-2006, 07:58 AM

[ QUOTE ]
The guy took a shot and missed

[/ QUOTE ]

It happens. Some say it happens all the time with him. But I say: what, it doesn't happen to anyone else? What makes Ahn Hyun-Soo so [censored] special? How come all his moves are always so smart and noble, and Apolo Anton Ohno is always the idiot piece of [censored]?

octop

02-13-2006, 11:42 AM

ever see the clowns on Price Is Right?

Up for bid some piece of [censored] dresser
First guy bids 800 dollars
Next guy Bids 1200
Next player will bid 900
Final guy will bid either 1050 (instead of 901) or 1600 (instead of 1201)
These people are seriosly some of the most braindead people
I have ever seen.

Posty123

02-13-2006, 01:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
ever see the clowns on Price Is Right?

Up for bid some piece of [censored] dresser
First guy bids 800 dollars
Next guy Bids 1200
Next player will bid 900
Final guy will bid either 1050 (instead of 901) or 1600 (instead of 1201)
These people are seriosly some of the most braindead people
I have ever seen.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes! Exactly. You win. Some people spend literally a lifetime "preparing" for that show. And then they finally are called to take their place, only one correct bid away from hugging Bob Barker and untold riches.

You can see this almost every day.

Five wrong bids in a row, five pricing games have now passed before him. "Closest without going over", he's heard an equal number of times.

He's now last to act.
The highest bid $1850.
The next highest bid $1200.
It's now his turn, the pressure is on, "We need a bid" Bob urges.

"$1400 Bob!"

And the correct bid..."$1350"

einbert

02-13-2006, 02:23 PM

This seems like a ridiculous mistake to make to us. But I guess people who have never thought about things like this make these kinds of mistakes every single day.

I hope to understand one day the unwillingness of the vast majority of humans to think.

Kneel B4 Zod

02-13-2006, 02:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Cliff Claven going all-in in Final Jeopardy

[/ QUOTE ]

who are 3 people who have never been in my kitchen?

droopy0021

02-13-2006, 03:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Maybe he forgot that top 3 qualify?

[/ QUOTE ]

Top two.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, top 3 qualified for the semis. One of the 5 was DQ'd and Ouhno finished in 4th officially.

Justin A

02-13-2006, 03:29 PM

Justin A

02-13-2006, 03:33 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
That guy had other motives at hand besides making the most money though. He was betting based on utility rather than money.

[/ QUOTE ]
Could you elaborate? I'm not getting it. /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Ken didn't seem to care about maximizing his EV as much as he did messing with Alex. Remember he always bid an amount that would leave him just shy of $50k if he got it right. Ken was smart enough to make good bids when it was closer for FJ, there's no reason to think he didn't know what would maximize his EV for shows when it was a lock.

MikeSmith

02-13-2006, 05:28 PM

i wish we saw 2plus2ers "come on down" the bids would be

$1
$2
$3
$4

Evan

02-13-2006, 05:39 PM

Posty123

02-13-2006, 06:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
i wish we saw 2plus2ers "come on down" the bids would be

$1
$2
$3
$4

[/ QUOTE ]

That's interesting. I've never really thought about it, but my guess is that if you were first. Your guess should be so high that you have about a 95% chance of going over the actual price, maybe even a little higher than that. In order to make over-bidding you not always the correct strategy.

Wake up CALL

02-13-2006, 07:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i wish we saw 2plus2ers "come on down" the bids would be

$1
$2
$3
$4

[/ QUOTE ]

That's interesting. I've never really thought about it, but my guess is that if you were first. Your guess should be so high that you have about a 95% chance of going over the actual price, maybe even a little higher than that. In order to make over-bidding you not always the correct strategy.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wouldn't the correct strategy just be bidding the exact amount you think the item is worth if you are first to act?

Posty123

02-13-2006, 07:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i wish we saw 2plus2ers "come on down" the bids would be

$1
$2
$3
$4

[/ QUOTE ]

That's interesting. I've never really thought about it, but my guess is that if you were first. Your guess should be so high that you have about a 95% chance of going over the actual price, maybe even a little higher than that. In order to make over-bidding you not always the correct strategy.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wouldn't the correct strategy just be bidding the exact amount you think the item is worth if you are first to act?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think so. Because let's say you think it's $970 exactly. However due to the reasonable range the retail "The Price is Right" price can vary, the actual price has an equal chance of being anywhere from $950 to $1050. If you had bid $1002 it is now in the best interest of the final bidder to bid $951 and you have improved your chances quite a bit by not guessing exactly what you would think it was. Otherwise the last bidder has any easy choice of bidding $971 and leaving you with 1 chance out of 100 instead of the 49 out of a hundred you now have by increasing your risk of going over.

Nottom

02-13-2006, 11:12 PM

OK, lets test everyone's Price is Right skills.

http://www.kelleyfurniture.com/ProductImages/Homerica/medium/782BK-32.jpg

Kelley Furniture
Antique Black Finish Game Table Set

Features

* Antique Black Finish
* Game Board Top
* Dining Table with Extension Leaves: 38 x 38 x 38H
* Counter Stool: Seat: 24H

NO Cheating by looking it up!

Hell, I'll even start the bidding at $859.

talentdeficit

02-13-2006, 11:40 PM

$1025

MostKnownUnknown

02-14-2006, 12:04 AM

I once saw a lady bid $10,000 on the first item. She had 0% chance to win.

Numberous other people have bid 599 after a person has bid 600, too. They must just not watch the show.

ImsaKidd

02-14-2006, 12:43 AM

[ QUOTE ]
OK, lets test everyone's Price is Right skills.

<img src="http://www.kelleyfurniture.com/ProductImages/Homerica/medium
/782BK-32.jpg">

Kelley Furniture
Antique Black Finish Game Table Set

Features

* Antique Black Finish
* Game Board Top
* Dining Table with Extension Leaves: 38 x 38 x 38H
* Counter Stool: Seat: 24H

NO Cheating by looking it up!

Hell, I'll even start the bidding at $859.

[/ QUOTE ]

$858

Ok, Ok, $860 /images/graemlins/wink.gif

rothko

02-14-2006, 03:31 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i wish we saw 2plus2ers "come on down" the bids would be

$1
$2
$3
$4

[/ QUOTE ]

That's interesting. I've never really thought about it, but my guess is that if you were first. Your guess should be so high that you have about a 95% chance of going over the actual price, maybe even a little higher than that. In order to make over-bidding you not always the correct strategy.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wouldn't the correct strategy just be bidding the exact amount you think the item is worth if you are first to act?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think so. Because let's say you think it's $970 exactly. However due to the reasonable range the retail "The Price is Right" price can vary, the actual price has an equal chance of being anywhere from $950 to $1050. If you had bid $1002 it is now in the best interest of the final bidder to bid $951 and you have improved your chances quite a bit by not guessing exactly what you would think it was. Otherwise the last bidder has any easy choice of bidding $971 and leaving you with 1 chance out of 100 instead of the 49 out of a hundred you now have by increasing your risk of going over.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nope, sorry people. If you go over the price you lose, even if it's just $1 over and the next closest person is $1000 under, that person wins. So, you actually want to short yourself a bit, not overbid.

Johnny Rash

02-14-2006, 03:41 AM

Ken Jennings ain't got no gamble.

Posty123

02-14-2006, 04:59 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i wish we saw 2plus2ers "come on down" the bids would be

$1
$2
$3
$4

[/ QUOTE ]

That's interesting. I've never really thought about it, but my guess is that if you were first. Your guess should be so high that you have about a 95% chance of going over the actual price, maybe even a little higher than that. In order to make over-bidding you not always the correct strategy.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wouldn't the correct strategy just be bidding the exact amount you think the item is worth if you are first to act?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think so. Because let's say you think it's $970 exactly. However due to the reasonable range the retail "The Price is Right" price can vary, the actual price has an equal chance of being anywhere from $950 to $1050. If you had bid $1002 it is now in the best interest of the final bidder to bid $951 and you have improved your chances quite a bit by not guessing exactly what you would think it was. Otherwise the last bidder has any easy choice of bidding $971 and leaving you with 1 chance out of 100 instead of the 49 out of a hundred you now have by increasing your risk of going over.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nope, sorry people. If you go over the price you lose, even if it's just $1 over and the next closest person is $1000 under, that person wins. So, you actually want to short yourself a bit, not overbid.

[/ QUOTE ]

There is no was to know if you're shorting yourself. I think all you can do is estimate a range in which you beleive every bid you would make within that range has a equal chance of being right. And then try to create an equilibrium in which no one player can be made better off by deviating from his strategy.

I'm pretty sure it's not

$1
$2
$3
$4

though.

omahahahaha

02-14-2006, 06:02 AM

jean van de velde or some such,,,biggest apathetic - EV gamble that I've ever seen in sports. He had the british open won if he basically just putted the ball down the 18th fairway. Instead , He decided to pull a " Tin Cup "

shag

02-14-2006, 06:36 AM

AHAHAHAHAHAHAH YOUR A GONNER! AYAYAYAYAYAYAYAYAY TACOS Y BURRRRRRRITOS

Evan

02-14-2006, 06:47 AM

octop

02-14-2006, 07:18 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
ever see the clowns on Price Is Right?

Up for bid some piece of [censored] dresser
First guy bids 800 dollars
Next guy Bids 1200
Next player will bid 900
Final guy will bid either 1050 (instead of 901) or 1600 (instead of 1201)
These people are seriosly some of the most braindead people
I have ever seen.

[/ QUOTE ]

The people up there have a very difficult time hearing what the other contestants have bid. That's why you see them often bid the same as someone else or ask Bob what the last guy bid.

[/ QUOTE ]

No Im in gonna stick with my "these people ate lead paint when they were babies" theory. When people cant here the other bids they ask what they were. If I could freeroll my way to a car or whatever Id make damn sure to hear what the other bids were.
Posi`tion is very important on this show. If your first to act someone can bid 1 dollar more than you and youre screwed (unless you guess the exact price.)Ofcourse the next guy up will probably bid 1 dollar less than you. I swear if anyone I knew went on this show and pulled a stunt like one of these clowns I would never talk to them again.
I think Vanna White was actually discovered on this show. Kinda proves my point.

rothko

02-14-2006, 08:43 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i wish we saw 2plus2ers "come on down" the bids would be

$1
$2
$3
$4

[/ QUOTE ]

That's interesting. I've never really thought about it, but my guess is that if you were first. Your guess should be so high that you have about a 95% chance of going over the actual price, maybe even a little higher than that. In order to make over-bidding you not always the correct strategy.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wouldn't the correct strategy just be bidding the exact amount you think the item is worth if you are first to act?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think so. Because let's say you think it's $970 exactly. However due to the reasonable range the retail "The Price is Right" price can vary, the actual price has an equal chance of being anywhere from $950 to $1050. If you had bid $1002 it is now in the best interest of the final bidder to bid $951 and you have improved your chances quite a bit by not guessing exactly what you would think it was. Otherwise the last bidder has any easy choice of bidding $971 and leaving you with 1 chance out of 100 instead of the 49 out of a hundred you now have by increasing your risk of going over.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nope, sorry people. If you go over the price you lose, even if it's just $1 over and the next closest person is $1000 under, that person wins. So, you actually want to short yourself a bit, not overbid.

[/ QUOTE ]

There is no was to know if you're shorting yourself. I think all you can do is estimate a range in which you beleive every bid you would make within that range has a equal chance of being right. And then try to create an equilibrium in which no one player can be made better off by deviating from his strategy.

I'm pretty sure it's not

$1
$2
$3
$4

though.

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL, first you say to overshoot your estimate and now your telling me there's no way to know if you're shorting? Yes, you do know: if you think the item is $950 and you bid $900, you would know that you were shorting your estimate. It's not rocket science. That part that you don't know is if your estimate is correct, hence the shorting. Really it's the simplest thing in the world, silly.

CCx

02-14-2006, 11:06 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
jean van de velde or some such,,,biggest apathetic - EV gamble that I've ever seen in sports. He had the british open won if he basically just putted the ball down the 18th fairway. Instead , He decided to pull a " Tin Cup "

[/ QUOTE ]
Yea, his was definitely worse. That was painful to watch.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed, absolutely sickening... also much more painful than the skater because it took the poor guy a half hour to finish the hole.

What was the deal with Apolo not coming out initially for the consolation race? I had the TV turned down and was laying in bed but saw him trying to jump over the barrier onto the ice after coming out of the locker room... did he not want to come out?

Posty123

02-14-2006, 12:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i wish we saw 2plus2ers "come on down" the bids would be

$1
$2
$3
$4

[/ QUOTE ]

That's interesting. I've never really thought about it, but my guess is that if you were first. Your guess should be so high that you have about a 95% chance of going over the actual price, maybe even a little higher than that. In order to make over-bidding you not always the correct strategy.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wouldn't the correct strategy just be bidding the exact amount you think the item is worth if you are first to act?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think so. Because let's say you think it's $970 exactly. However due to the reasonable range the retail "The Price is Right" price can vary, the actual price has an equal chance of being anywhere from $950 to $1050. If you had bid $1002 it is now in the best interest of the final bidder to bid $951 and you have improved your chances quite a bit by not guessing exactly what you would think it was. Otherwise the last bidder has any easy choice of bidding $971 and leaving you with 1 chance out of 100 instead of the 49 out of a hundred you now have by increasing your risk of going over.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nope, sorry people. If you go over the price you lose, even if it's just $1 over and the next closest person is $1000 under, that person wins. So, you actually want to short yourself a bit, not overbid.

[/ QUOTE ]

There is no was to know if you're shorting yourself. I think all you can do is estimate a range in which you beleive every bid you would make within that range has a equal chance of being right. And then try to create an equilibrium in which no one player can be made better off by deviating from his strategy.

I'm pretty sure it's not

$1
$2
$3
$4

though.

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL, first you say to overshoot your estimate and now your telling me there's no way to know if you're shorting? Yes, you do know: if you think the item is $950 and you bid $900, you would know that you were shorting your estimate. It's not rocket science. That part that you don't know is if your estimate is correct, hence the shorting. Really it's the simplest thing in the world, silly.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not a smart man Jenny, but I know what a Nash equillibrium is.

Think of it as walking into a hundred different retail stores and due to marketing/distance etc. each store has a retail price of $901 all the way up to $1000. If you bid $999. It will be not be in the interests of anyone to over bid you. However, I think you could safely be in the same situation at $995.

That's why I said have a 95% chance of going over the ACTUAL price not your estimate.

You set up a convincing red herring argument and then went for the adhomonymn argument close.

Are you really Bill O'Reilly?

Just kidding.

Posty123

02-14-2006, 12:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
jean van de velde or some such,,,biggest apathetic - EV gamble that I've ever seen in sports. He had the british open won if he basically just putted the ball down the 18th fairway. Instead , He decided to pull a " Tin Cup "

[/ QUOTE ]

O.K. you win. I actually hadn't heard of this guy before. What a fricken' story.

""I only had 185 (yards) to carry the water, which wasn't very demanding," he said. "The only thing you didn't have to do was hit it left. So do you hit a wedge down the left side and then pitch on the green, or do you hit a shot over there and try to move forward with it?

"The ball was lying so good, I took my 2-iron. ... I pushed it a little. I didn't hit a very good shot.""

Not only throwing away a life of preperation, the last time a Frenchman won was 1907.

This one will be tough to top.

Keepitsimple

02-14-2006, 01:34 PM

I watched that live(tv) and I couldnt believe it. What a moron.

pudley4

02-14-2006, 02:15 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Apollo Ono was in second place and moments away from quallifying for the finals in speed ice skating, the event he just spent four years training for. At the last second he decided to pass the leader. There was no reason to do this. There was nothing to gain by going for first. He could only increase his chance of tripping and not quallifying for the finals, which he did. He had his spot locked up for the finals and made the bigeest -EV gamble I have ever seen with my own eyes.

Seen anything worse? We're talking gambling four years of your life and a lifetime of regret on a gamble with nothing to win!

[/ QUOTE ]

If he doesn't pass, and tries to tuck in behind the leader, he leaves himself open to being passed on the outside, especially if the leader slows down a bit for whatever reason. However, if he stays outside where he's in the clear, he also leaves himself open to someone diving in below him and taking second, especially if the leader drifts out a bit (or gets squeezed out). It's not like he was a lock if he stayed where he was - there was still over a full lap left.

Posty123

02-14-2006, 02:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Apollo Ono was in second place and moments away from quallifying for the finals in speed ice skating, the event he just spent four years training for. At the last second he decided to pass the leader. There was no reason to do this. There was nothing to gain by going for first. He could only increase his chance of tripping and not quallifying for the finals, which he did. He had his spot locked up for the finals and made the bigeest -EV gamble I have ever seen with my own eyes.

Seen anything worse? We're talking gambling four years of your life and a lifetime of regret on a gamble with nothing to win!

[/ QUOTE ]

If he doesn't pass, and tries to tuck in behind the leader, he leaves himself open to being passed on the outside, especially if the leader slows down a bit for whatever reason. However, if he stays outside where he's in the clear, he also leaves himself open to someone diving in below him and taking second, especially if the leader drifts out a bit (or gets squeezed out). It's not like he was a lock if he stayed where he was - there was still over a full lap left.

[/ QUOTE ]

I saw Apollo say it was the top two who advanced. Someone on here said the top three advanced. I agree that makes a big difference.

Either way, I agree the golfer guy was much worse.

italianstang

02-14-2006, 04:01 PM

Assuming you are not playing price is right against three other 2+2ers then if you are late position you should be in the $200-$400 range regardless of what the item is if you think that later people are the "$1 Bob!" types.

Example: Using the Kelly Furniture thing posted above.

Contestant 1: $1600 Bob!
Contestant 2: Ummm..$1250 Bob!
Hero: Err...$340 Bob
Contestant 4: $1!!

Now not only do you have the most likely range of prices covered but you have clearly induced a late position bluff by a fish who thinks that $1 is a lock regardless of what other people bid.

Sold.

Scary_Tiger

02-14-2006, 04:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Assuming you are not playing price is right against three other 2+2ers then if you are late position you should be in the $200-$400 range regardless of what the item is if you think that later people are the "$1 Bob!" types.

Example: Using the Kelly Furniture thing posted above.

Contestant 1: $1600 Bob!
Contestant 2: Ummm..$1250 Bob!
Hero: Err...$340 Bob
Contestant 4: $1!!

Now not only do you have the most likely range of prices covered but you have clearly induced a late position bluff by a fish who thinks that $1 is a lock regardless of what other people bid.

Sold.

[/ QUOTE ]

This move is REALLY read dependent. You just can't risk him being sane enough to say "$341" as would clearly be optimal.

Dennisa

02-14-2006, 07:33 PM

jenning's fj amount bets were also in relation to how well he liked the catagory. I believe he would always bet the max on Shakespear or Movie catagories.

Turning Stone Pro

02-14-2006, 08:18 PM

-Newman

Posty123

02-14-2006, 10:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Assuming you are not playing price is right against three other 2+2ers then if you are late position you should be in the $200-$400 range regardless of what the item is if you think that later people are the "$1 Bob!" types.

Example: Using the Kelly Furniture thing posted above.

Contestant 1: $1600 Bob!
Contestant 2: Ummm..$1250 Bob!
Hero: Err...$340 Bob
Contestant 4: $1!!

Now not only do you have the most likely range of prices covered but you have clearly induced a late position bluff by a fish who thinks that $1 is a lock regardless of what other people bid.

Sold.

[/ QUOTE ]

This move is REALLY read dependent. You just can't risk him being sane enough to say "$341" as would clearly be optimal.

[/ QUOTE ]

You guys have to check out the Nash equillibrium idea. I'm not saying I totally understand it, but you can set up a model where, for each position, you have an optimal strategy. Deviating from it will leave you worse off.

Hey, come on, he got a Nobel Prize for it. And it wasn't in something unuseful like "peace".

TomCollins

02-17-2006, 01:54 PM

Gotta admit, that snowboarder that decided to celebrate her assured victory by doing a trick and falling on her ass and getting 2nd was far worse than Oh-No!'s move.

SoSo

02-17-2006, 06:57 PM

That golfing one U.S Masters the frenchman takes like 50 shots on the 18th to take the game to a tie break and then loses....this is probably all incorrect (specifics) but i remember watching it on tv.

Dudd

02-18-2006, 03:46 PM

I think that snowboarder chick just ripped the title away.

wheatrich

02-18-2006, 03:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
That golfing one U.S Masters the frenchman takes like 50 shots on the 18th to take the game to a tie break and then loses....this is probably all incorrect (specifics) but i remember watching it on tv.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah you're were way wrong
I think the year was 98 but it was Jean Van de Velde in the British open triple bogeying the 18th hole and then lost the 3 way tiebreaker to Paul Lawrie.

And there is no such event as the US Masters. The four big golf events are the US Open, the Masters, British Open, and the PGA championship.

roundmound

02-18-2006, 05:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
That golfing one U.S Masters the frenchman takes like 50 shots on the 18th to take the game to a tie break and then loses....this is probably all incorrect (specifics) but i remember watching it on tv.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah you're were way wrong
I think the year was 98 but it was Jean Van de Velde in the British open triple bogeying the 18th hole and then lost the 3 way tiebreaker to Paul Lawrie.

And there is no such event as the US Masters. The four big golf events are the US Open, the Masters, British Open, and the PGA championship.

[/ QUOTE ]

There is an event called the Brittish Masters. Someone from Brittian will call this one the US Masters. Kind of like how in the UK it is just called the Open Championship and we call it the Brittish Open becuase we have one of our own.

colgin

02-18-2006, 05:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think that snowboarder chick just ripped the title away.

[/ QUOTE ]

Totally.

Sponger.

02-18-2006, 05:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Gotta admit, that snowboarder that decided to celebrate her assured victory by doing a trick and falling on her ass and getting 2nd was far worse than Oh-No!'s move.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I hadn't actually seen the video when I made those posts in the sports forum, just a picture of it. It looked like just a standard grab, but the fact that she tweaked it method is just retarded.

Its almost easier and safer for them just to do a standard indy grab than to go off and do nothing though.

vistaplayer

02-18-2006, 06:44 PM

I think that falling and losing the gold medal is going to work out all right for the snowboard cross girl. She's probably gotten more publicity now than she would have had she stayed upright and won the race. She wants to race in 2010 and this sets up a perfect storyline for the sponsors and NBC to play up.

kjander

02-20-2006, 10:37 AM

How about in the Division 1 football semifinals this year. Tie ball game with just less than 2 minutes left and all three time outs the Texas State coach take 3 knees and let the clock run out.

So if he thought his chances of turning the ball over and allowing a score were greater than the chances of his team driving 30 yards to kick, why didn't he punt on first down every time he got the ball on the 30 or in.

Doesn't make sence to take that strategy at the end of the game but not the beginning.

Also TCU this year, not sure who they were playing. Tie ball game,4th down. TCU calls a time out to force a punt with around 10 seconds left in the ball game.

I am thinking, okay so your best chance is to rush all 11 players and to block it to set upa field goal or TD, no need for a return man if you are going for the block.

Nope, he send the return man back, who then fair catches the ball on the 2 or so, and TCU is forced to take a knee about on their goal line.

So many -EV decisions. The return man could fumble, he stands to gain nothing by catching the ball since they had no return set up and they are not going to try to score.

Catching it inside the 3? Why even catch it, you will get a touchback and take a knee at the 20 with a little room, and not risk fumbling.

Also in a 1AA football game Illinois State is tryign to upset #1 ranked Western Kentucky. Driving to end the half. 1st and goal from the 5. Run a play, and then they spike it. They then run 2 more pass plays, turn the ball over on 4th down and take their remaining time out into the locker room with them......Same game driving to end the game with the 2 minute offense, gets well into field goal range, they use all 3 of their time outs and leave almost a minute left on the clock. Western Kentucky gets the ball back after adn Illinois State score and answers back, Western kentucky Wins.

Makes me think you should have a poker player on each college football coaching staff to make obvious game theory calls because apparently it is not a prerequisate to know basic concepts liek this to get a Division 1 coaching job.