25nl turned set of 7's how to extract the most

[prodonkey]

Guy is reasonably tight.. I'm assuming he has an ace from the flop and turn call.. what's the plan for the river? If I check he probably checks behind right? If I bet I might get raised if he has a random Q instead of the A I'm putting him on.

Full Tilt Poker
$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game
6 Players
LegoPoker Hand Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh)

<font color="black">Stack Sizes</font>
Hero (CO): $55.45
BTN: $49.90
SB: $9.9
BB: $13.75
UTG: $18.45
MP: $34.95

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($0.35, 6 players)
UTG folds, MP folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $0.80</font>, BTN calls $0.80, SB calls $0.70, BB folds

<font color="black">Flop:</font> A/images/graemlins/club.gif 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif ($2.65, 3 players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $1.90</font>, BTN calls $1.90, SB folds

<font color="black">Turn:</font> A/images/graemlins/club.gif 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif [7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif] ($6.45, 2 players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $4.20</font>, BTN calls $4.20

<font color="black">River:</font> A/images/graemlins/club.gif 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif [Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif] ($14.85, 2 players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $???

[Angrymoog]

Depends on reads. If he's a decent player there is obviously a point at which he will overwhelmingly consider tossing a strong Ace. I think in this case, a nice value bet is in order. something like 8-10 or so.

[ItalianFX]

I agree with Angrymoog. Either 8 or 10, but not 9. I would say 10 just to make it a round number as if you didn't think about it too hard.

[21SuicideKing21]

[ QUOTE ]
something like 8-10 or so.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Gelford]

Valueshove ???

[21SuicideKing21]

[ QUOTE ]
Valueshove ???

[/ QUOTE ]

Interesting, but I just don't see getting the right value out of this hand by shoving. I just like the standard 9 or 10 value bet. But shoving loses out on alot of hands that would call 10.

[prodonkey]

I really did think about shoving.. but I figured I wasn't getting called by anything unless he happened to have 6's and was playing them reallllllly slow. I forget what I bet.. I think it was 8

[Gelford]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Valueshove ???

[/ QUOTE ]

Interesting, but I just don't see getting the right value out of this hand by shoving. I just like the standard 9 or 10 value bet. But shoving loses out on alot of hands that would call 10.

[/ QUOTE ]

Try some calculations ..... the point is, that you don't have to be called as often to show the same profit as betting ten, since when you are called you win more.

Dunno if it is the right thing to do, but it is tempting

[T-Bone98]

I think a valueshove is an option. Depends on villain. He has about $43 left. If u get him to call the shove 1 out of 4 times u win more than betting $10. Assuming that he will call the 10$ bet every time.

[Mjafish]

depending how aggro he is, I might c/r turn, then push river.

As played, I value-push river.

[Michael Fish]

I've been thinking about this for a while, it's tough spot i think and it seems taking each course of action provides it's own problem.

As i see it

1. Bet 10 - any Q will raise, Ax will more than likely fold.

2. Shove - any Q will call, Ax will more than likely fold

3. Check - any Q will raise, Ax may raise but more than likely check behind. (far too weak for a nice hand like this)

I'd go for betting 10, however the shove is an interesting option indeed and not one to completely rule out. It's very much readbased with the value game and shoving as has already been said by Gelford. I'd be even more tempted to do it if I'd been more active than usual in the last few rounds.

and lastly just for fun

4. Minibet 0.77 cents and decide to call any shove, type "LOL" reapeatedly in chat box if you win and "WANKER" if you don't.

[Jouster777]

For simplicity I put villain on:
AQ - 3 combos, calls shove, we lose (discounted from 6)
KQ - 8 combos, calls shove, we win, reraises VB
QJ - 4 combos, calls shove, we win (QJo's discounted some)
QTs - 2 combos, calls shove, we win
AJ - 12 combos, folds shove, we win
AT - 12 combos, folds shove, we win
A9- 12 combos, folds shove, we win
A8s 3 combos, folds shove, we win
66 - 3 combos, calls shove, we win, reraises VB

So we can ignore AQ, KQ, and 66 as its all going in no matter what we do. This leaves 6 combos villain calls a shove but might only call a VB and 39 combos he will fold a shove but call a VB.

Since 39 x 8 &gt; 6 x 43 we should VB here. But its fairly close. Probably 10 gets called as often as 8.

[Sigurd]

If villain is "reasonably tight" I'm assuming that he wouldn't be calling flop and turn with middle pair and no draw. Therefore I'm not keen on shoving. However, it is a really good move to have in the back of your head, when you think that there is a possibility that villain has trips.

[kbrat]

I think a value bet is best here, but not a PSB. If he is decent he will be folding the ace some of the time to a PSB, maybe not always but betting 8-10 will definitely be a better choice.

[ QUOTE ]
Either 8 or 10, but not 9

[/ QUOTE ]

/images/graemlins/confused.gif why not?