50nl TT bottom set

[blinlk182]

Villain is super nitty 11.5/8.5 over 120 hands.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) internettexasholdem.com (http://www.internettexasholdem.com)

MP ($34.20)
Button ($17.90)
SB ($74.85)
BB ($54)
Hero ($84.85)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $7</font>, Hero calls $5.

Flop: ($14.25) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks.

Turn: ($14.25) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $12.5</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $26.75

Is flop check here horrible or standard against a super nitty villain?

[Xanta]

Flop check is OK here if he really is that nitty but why were you calling his 3bet with TT? Don't forget that your raise was UTG which should tighten his 3betting range even more. Fold pf.

He doesn't have AA or KK enough on the flop to profitably get it in, and the turn is a clear fold.

[blinlk182]

Good point. Thanks.

[matrix]

bet the flop.

you FLOPPED A SET and didn't bet when checked to /images/graemlins/confused.gif

why oh why would you call preflop if you fold the hand when you flop the goods???

bet flop - hope BB c/raises and we can get all the chips in.

as played call the turn, tho it doesn't really matter what you do here much.

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]
bet the flop.

you FLOPPED A SET and didn't bet when checked to /images/graemlins/confused.gif

why oh why would you call preflop if you fold the hand when you flop the goods???

[/ QUOTE ]

Because a solid chunk of hands that he's up against have "flopped the goods" as well. One pretty plausible range for this guy is JJ+, AK, to which we're pretty solidly behind right now! (6 better sets, 12 overpairs with six or ten outs, 16 straights) This is a pretty rare flop that hit everything. Calling preflop and getting something like T73 is obviously much different than this.

I actually think this hand was played pretty well. Folding preflop is okay, too, obviously.

[Zagga]

I think a preflop call is good for set value, but then you really should get your money in if you hit the set, no matter how scary the flop is and especially if PF raiser checks.

[creamfillin]

I don't care if we are playing against an asteroid. You flop a set, BET.

[gumpzilla]

So, for those arguing for a bet here, can you answer the following questions:

What range do you put your opponent on, taking the PT stats into account?

What do you hope to accomplish against that range?

[Debaser]

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Is flop check here horrible or standard against a super nitty villain?

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His range is probably something like AA-JJ and AK. QQ and JJ have us crushed, KK has 10 outs and AA six. The problem is he's unlikely to stack off with AA on that board so if all the money goes in on the flop we're usually well behind.

I check behind here too. If the board pairs on the turn it's all going in cos now only QQ and JJ beat us and AA and KK lost most of their outs.

[matrix]

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why oh why would you call preflop if you fold the hand when you flop the goods???

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Because a solid chunk of hands that he's up against have "flopped the goods" as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

He doesn't know what we have.

Unless he has AK QQ or JJ we get our money in good everytime here. On that flop he'll call bets with AQ KQ JTs KJs AA and KK and we're in good shape vs those.

If we are going to fold this flop - then why call preflop?

if his range here is AK JJ+ we're a 45/55 dog on the flop - and a 30/70 dog on this turn.

If his range also includes AQ here (which is quite likely) then we'er a 55/45 favourite on the flop - and a 45/55 dog on the turn which makes it criminal almost not to get it all in here.

pot is offering ~2:1 and we have implied odds of ~5:1 if we catch a pair on the river and get it all-in.

5:1 is enough to call the turn and stack him on the river if he has the straight and we fill up..

the problem with checking the flop here is that we have no idea what range he has now - and if we take a big turn bet as a sign of strength that has us WB and possibly drawing at one out and fold - then we are folding the best hand sometimes. He's betting all the hands that crush us on this turn - as well as a few that we are in good shape against.

He is never folding AK if the river pairs the board. calling just for boat value on this turn is +EV.

Given the dead money in the pot on this flop it's about neutral EV to get it all in on the flop even if his range is just AK JJ+.

Folding here is just scared and you'd be way better off folding preflop if you think villains range is JJ+ AK cos TT is a 2/1 dog preflop to that range.

[gumpzilla]

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He doesn't know what we have.

[/ QUOTE ]

He doesn't need to. His hands are still good regardless.

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Unless he has AK QQ or JJ we get our money in good everytime here. On that flop he'll call bets with AQ KQ JTs KJs AA and KK and we're in good shape vs those.

[/ QUOTE ]

This guy is pretty nitty, right? 11/8 or so? How often is he going to show up with KQ, JTs, or KJs? He might 3 bet light occasionally, but a) this is against an UTG raiser, and b) we have to HEAVILY discount those hands because he certainly isn't 3betting them all the time. So including those as reasons why we should bet seems pretty shaky to me.

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If we are going to fold this flop - then why call preflop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, first off, we haven't folded on the flop. But, if you mean why aren't we betting, I'd hold back because this is in something like the worst 1% of all possible flops for our hand against his most likely range. I think this style of argument is contentless, usually.

[ QUOTE ]

If his range also includes AQ here (which is quite likely) then we'er a 55/45 favourite on the flop - and a 45/55 dog on the turn which makes it criminal almost not to get it all in here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure I'd say it's likely. It's certainly possible. But checking the flop and betting pot into this turn means he's bluffing with AQ if that's what he has. From a big PF nit, how likely do you think that is? It may be that he plays entirely differently postflop but this seems unlikely to me.


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pot is offering ~2:1 and we have implied odds of ~5:1 if we catch a pair on the river and get it all-in.

5:1 is enough to call the turn and stack him on the river if he has the straight and we fill up..

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a valid point, but we do also need to consider that we get stacked when he has the better boat, as well. Calling on the turn is probably fine, because the bulk of his hands should be straights and not better sets, but I bet it's pretty close.

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Given the dead money in the pot on this flop it's about neutral EV to get it all in on the flop even if his range is just AK JJ+.

[/ QUOTE ]

Calling the turn after checking behind seems likely to have positive expectation, as you pointed out above, and so is almost certainly a better play than this.

[ QUOTE ]

Folding here is just scared and you'd be way better off folding preflop if you think villains range is JJ+ AK cos TT is a 2/1 dog preflop to that range.

[/ QUOTE ]

Way better off seems like an exaggeration. You're likely to stack him when he has AA-KK and it comes T73 or something like that, right? You're probably not getting good enough odds to make it strictly worthwhile but it's going to be a pretty small mistake. This flop, on the other hand, sucks. Ignoring the texture of the board compared to the opponent's range and just screaming "OMG OMG SET SET SET SET SET" doesn't really seem productive to me.

[mvdgaag]

As played it's ok. AK, QQ and JJ have you beat. With the 9 out there on the turn also the kings beat you. He 3bet, so he's very likely to have AA-QQ (possibly, but unlikely JJ) or AK. More than half of that range has you beat. Good fold on turn.

One of the few times you hit the set and do not want to go with it.

[Vyse]

Standard. I agree with gump.

[matrix]

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He doesn't know what we have.

[/ QUOTE ]

He doesn't need to. His hands are still good regardless.

[/ QUOTE ]

yes but...
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But checking the flop and betting pot into this turn means he's bluffing with AQ if that's what he has. From a big PF nit, how likely do you think that is

[/ QUOTE ]

as we have played this hand sooooo weakly - I'd guess it's quite likely that the turn bet is a bluff of some description - even if villain isn't quite intending it to be a bluff.

Do you see that effectively you're folding everytime here to a bluff (if it is one) because we don't know what he's got and that by the same token he doesn't know what we have - that board looks super scary - so he'll fold just as often as we do if WE make a scary bet because unless he's got a top hand he'll put us on a straight and if he can't beat a straight he'll fold cos he's a nit.

hence bet the flop (and follow up with a turn lead as well)

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On that flop he'll call bets with AQ KQ JTs KJs AA and KK and we're in good shape vs those.

[/ QUOTE ]

This guy is pretty nitty, right? 11/8 or so? How often is he going to show up with KQ, JTs, or KJs? He might 3 bet light occasionally, but a) this is against an UTG raiser, and b) we have to HEAVILY discount those hands because he certainly isn't 3betting them all the time. So including those as reasons why we should bet seems pretty shaky to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't auto assume a 3bet at $50NL is JJ+ AK - cos it's not . We have a relatively small sample of stats and we have no idea how he plays pre or post flop from the info in the OP. It's not going to happen often but I can see him showing up here with JTs KQs KJs (perhaps he has a read on UTG that we don't) - I'll accept it seems "pretty shaky" reasoning but we can't totally discount those hands from his range.

FYI an 8% raising range is 55+,ATs+,KJs+,AQ+ - perhaps he doesn't like calling and 3bets most of that range preflop - perhaps he's a nit and only 3bets pp's - we don't have enough info to tell.

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If we are going to fold this flop - then why call preflop?

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Well, first off, we haven't folded on the flop. But, if you mean why aren't we betting, I'd hold back because this is in something like the worst 1% of all possible flops for our hand against his most likely range.

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OK so if we aren't going to bet this flop why call preflop??

This is not the worst 1% of all flops by some margin - it's not ideal but it's no reason to hold back.




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pot is offering ~2:1 and we have implied odds of ~5:1 if we catch a pair on the river and get it all-in.

5:1 is enough to call the turn and stack him on the river if he has the straight and we fill up..

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a valid point, but we do also need to consider that we get stacked when he has the better boat, as well. Calling on the turn is probably fine, because the bulk of his hands should be straights and not better sets, but I bet it's pretty close.

[/ QUOTE ]

it is pretty close - but it's +EV.

our equity on the turn if we're behind is ~30% - that includes all the times he has a higher set. If we flop a set and don't get stacked by a better set we are doing something wrong I think.

[ QUOTE ]

Given the dead money in the pot on this flop it's about neutral EV to get it all in on the flop even if his range is just AK JJ+.

Calling the turn after checking behind seems likely to have positive expectation, as you pointed out above, and so is almost certainly a better play than this.

[/ QUOTE ]

true - but his range here is a little wider than this - so getting it all-in on the flop is +EV.

[ QUOTE ]

Way better off seems like an exaggeration. You're likely to stack him when he has AA-KK and it comes T73 or something like that, right? You're probably not getting good enough odds to make it strictly worthwhile but it's going to be a pretty small mistake. This flop, on the other hand, sucks. Ignoring the texture of the board compared to the opponent's range and just screaming "OMG OMG SET SET SET SET SET" doesn't really seem productive to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not ignoring the board and I'm not screaming SET SET SET.

There are times and places to fold sets - I don't think this was one of them.

It is almost always +EV to take a flopped set to SD for ~100BB .

[DawnToDusk]

I think you can check this a lot on the flop. Our villain is 11.5/8.5 and is OOP. He was raised and reraised. This flop had to of hit your vill. His range includes AA/KK/QQ and AK. I can't see him making this raise with AQ or any other hands for that matter. So he could have a set or a straight already made.

If your question was about the flop bet I wish you had left the turn actions out of it as I feel my response is a little biased now, but it looks like he could of been going for a check-raise. But against this nit where this board helps his range so much I don't see why he would go for a C/R. It seems a C-Bet would have more value.

[gumpzilla]

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Do you see that effectively you're folding everytime here to a bluff (if it is one) because we don't know what he's got and that by the same token he doesn't know what we have - that board looks super scary - so he'll fold just as often as we do if WE make a scary bet because unless he's got a top hand he'll put us on a straight and if he can't beat a straight he'll fold cos he's a nit.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're trying to have it both ways. You're claiming that he's nitty enough that he's folding everything except AK to a flop bet, but also trying to claim that he's going to do this with AQ or KQ ever. This doesn't really make sense.

And yes, I misspoke when I said this flop was in the worst 1% for this hand. What I meant to say was this flop is in the worst 1% against his range for flops where we hit our set. I think that's pretty unquestionable.

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It is almost always +EV to take a flopped set to SD for ~100BB

[/ QUOTE ]

So let's talk about cases, like this one, where it's very unclear whether or not this is true.

[matrix]

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Do you see that effectively you're folding everytime here to a bluff (if it is one) because we don't know what he's got and that by the same token he doesn't know what we have - that board looks super scary - so he'll fold just as often as we do if WE make a scary bet because unless he's got a top hand he'll put us on a straight and if he can't beat a straight he'll fold cos he's a nit.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're trying to have it both ways. You're claiming that he's nitty enough that he's folding everything except AK to a flop bet, but also trying to claim that he's going to do this with AQ or KQ ever. This doesn't really make sense.



[/ QUOTE ]

no I'm not /images/graemlins/smile.gif

lets look at this from BB's perspective say "Hero" BB has AQ he 3bets UTG villain (we don't know what our own image is here as villain - OP doesn't tell us whether we'd been raising - playing ABC TAG so we have to guess)

UTG calls the 3bet and "Hero" is OOP now with his AQ - he's flopped TPTK but he puts villain on AK - villain checks behind.

Hero now assumes we have garbage - but we called preflop so we might call a value bet so Hero leads ~pot. Villain folds.

imagine this time that "villain" leads for 2/3 pot on the flop. "Hero" calls with his AQ but isn't happy about the board. "Villain" leads the turn and "Hero" decides his AQ is no good now the board is 4 straight and mucks.

Obv if he has AK he's not folding ever - if he flopped a higher set - he's probably not folding either (then again he IS a nit and might well fold the turn to a big scary bet if he has JJ/QQ.) - but just because he's a rock preflop doesn't mean he can't have AQ here sometimes - and if he did have AQ his line in the OP hand makes sense.

We get big value the times he has AK and we fill up - we win a nice pot the times he has a TP hand and nits it up and doesn't call our turn lead - (or our flop 3bet all-in) - we get stacked when he has a bigger set than we do - we lose ~40BB if we lead the flop/turn miss the boat and fold the river.

all in all I think betting the flop is +EV and much better than checking here - even tho that flop isn't too good and we'd far and away prefer a T73 flop than the one we got.

[fees]

bet the flop... something anything