Smilin'
03-09-2007, 10:54 PM
UTG here is pretty bad and has a history of calling down with any piece of the flop (saw him call on the flop once with a backdoor straight draw and undercards). Basically he's pretty loose passive, like 45/15/1.5 over ~40 hands (he likes to bluff sometimes, which pushes up the AF). CO has only been around for 2 1/2 orbits, so I don't have a solid read on him. HOwever, during that time he has called a preflop raise and raised a substantial cbet 3 times. He's also taken shots at orphan pots. Looks very LAGgy, but it's hard to tell given the limited sample size.
Usually I would fold in this spot. Here I'm tempted very much to push. Are my reads based on enough of a sample to trust them? And even if I do trust them, do I have a good enough shot at beating both UTG and CO?
Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
6 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)
Stack sizes:
UTG: $26.75
Hero: $49.75
CO: $36.60
Button: $37.30
SB: $53.65
BB: $12.30
Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG+1 with Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
UTG calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $2.5</font>, CO calls, 3 folds, UTG calls.
Flop: 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($8.25, 3 players)
UTG checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $5</font>, <font color="#cc0000">CO raises to $15</font>, <font color="#cc0000">UTG raises all-in $24.25</font>, Hero?
Usually I would fold in this spot. Here I'm tempted very much to push. Are my reads based on enough of a sample to trust them? And even if I do trust them, do I have a good enough shot at beating both UTG and CO?
Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
6 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)
Stack sizes:
UTG: $26.75
Hero: $49.75
CO: $36.60
Button: $37.30
SB: $53.65
BB: $12.30
Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG+1 with Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
UTG calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $2.5</font>, CO calls, 3 folds, UTG calls.
Flop: 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($8.25, 3 players)
UTG checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $5</font>, <font color="#cc0000">CO raises to $15</font>, <font color="#cc0000">UTG raises all-in $24.25</font>, Hero?