Pushing small edges (50nl)

[zaephyr]

Ok heres the hand
http://www.pokerhand.org/?890563

That was my 2nd or 3rd orbit on the table so no actual reads or stats yet, but on push i really doubt he has a set, so AA KK, maybe JJ or even TT, so im thinking im very close to proper odds and with a bit gamble in me at the moment i call.

So after a hand i review it and come to conclusion that it was quite good +EV call.

So now im asking is this move standard or due to high variance not advisable.

[creamfillin]

Pokerstove says this play is slightly -EV
And at these stakes you really don't have the fold equity to make this profitable.
This is more of a tournament play than anything

[Warteen]

If you look at the numbers, you are probably an underdog against his range. The point of getting all-in with draws (as it's been said before) is to maximize your fold equity. Since your opponent pushed, you probably are not on a combo draw here (your 2 pair and trip outs are likely no good), making you at best a 40% favorite (give or take) to win the hand. It was a fine semi-bluff raise but it was definitely not a "quite good +EV call". You are slightly -EV in the long-run playing what might be a naked flush draw for your whole stack.

[Sweir]

[ QUOTE ]
Pokerstove says this play is slightly -EV

This is more of a tournament play than anything

[/ QUOTE ]

What range have you used and how have you calculated the EV?

[creamfillin]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Pokerstove says this play is slightly -EV

This is more of a tournament play than anything

[/ QUOTE ]

What range have you used and how have you calculated the EV?

[/ QUOTE ]

QQ+,88,55,AQs,KQs,AQo,KQo

[Sweir]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Pokerstove says this play is slightly -EV

This is more of a tournament play than anything

[/ QUOTE ]

What range have you used and how have you calculated the EV?

[/ QUOTE ]

QQ+,88,55,AQs,KQs,AQo,KQo

[/ QUOTE ]

Quite a tight range but sounds reasonable. What % do we beat it??

[creamfillin]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Pokerstove says this play is slightly -EV

This is more of a tournament play than anything

[/ QUOTE ]

What range have you used and how have you calculated the EV?

[/ QUOTE ]

QQ+,88,55,AQs,KQs,AQo,KQo

[/ QUOTE ]

Quite a tight range but sounds reasonable. What % do we beat it??

[/ QUOTE ]

We have around 46.7% equity against this range. If I take out the set possibilites we are about even money.

[zaephyr]

u guys are not counting the money that is already in ie. I need to call 44$ to win 59 while i am 46 to 54 favourite which is clearly +EV move (eventhough its very close to 0)

[DawnToDusk]

Im at school and don't have the best tools to review the hand and find the equity you have in this hand against the range you gave your villian. I did do some rough work with numbers and odds and found that on the flop against your AA, KK, JJ, TT range that your call is slighty +EV when he flips over those cards. I found that when our villian flips over QQ that you are a big dog and your call turns out to be fairly -EV. When you look at the percentages of your villian flipping over those cards you will see that the EVs will roughly cancel each other out. I don't know how it truely is but I am having a hard time seeing how this is "quite good +EV". I think in the end that is got to be -EV becuase you villian can also backdoor a flush sometimes and if he does make a set, you tripping up is no good. I think we can find better places (after putting your villian on his hand range) to gamble.

If the pot was bigger and the bet a little smaller there might be more argument for calling. If you had some more information that the villian would play AA KK like this for sure and that he would play a set differently then a call seems a little more likely.

I'd say your best bet is to wait a little longer than a couple of orbits to gather some information on your players and then decide when it is a good time to gamble. If you do that you will be able to find more situations that favor you.

[DawnToDusk]

Ya. Your exact numbers work out to call $43.85 to win $61.1. Creamfillin can probably do this problem better than I can right now with my limited resources but it looks something like this with the hand range YOU gave. If he flips over AA, KK, JJ, TT your win percentage on the turn is 26.26% and you will $61.1. You will lose $43.85 53.74%. So...

(.4626)($61.1)-(.5374)($43.85)=+$4.70

When he flips QQ your win percentage on the turn is 30.10%. So...

(.3010)($61.1)-(.699)($43.85)=-$12.26

You can assign frequencies to the cards he is likely to flip over then then add up your expected values. If you want I can probably to that later or cream can for you right now. But when you look at it, even when you improve your hand there is a chance he has a redraw on the river and can beat you, that your call is more than likely -EV.