Daily tennis previews and bets

[Freddy81]

Greetings to all, I'm a tennis fan, and I'm here to share my opinion with other fans for upcoming matches and tennis match analysis techniques. Here I'll post my previews every day. Hope I'll not be boring /images/graemlins/wink.gif

Choice for tomorrow, Sunday 25 September:
Match: Ljubicic - Davydenko,
Selection: Davydenko ~@1.85 (do not know odds yet, local bookie offers 1.85).
First of all, I saw the match Ancic-Davydenko and can
say it was a convincing victory, the russian is in good
physical form and rather faultless. Davydenko did not play
a pair match today, and I think it was a tactical decision
to give him a rest, while croatian played 2 hard matches with
Youzhny and today's pair game, both in 5 sets.
Main reasons for the bet - Davydenko is fresh
and if he could involve Ljubicic in longer rallies
(not serve-and-volley game), his chances are greater.

[null]

Thanks for the writeup, will tail your pick. Got Davydenko at -106 at pinnacle (that's 1.94), he's -116 now.

[Freddy81]

Bangkok (Indoor Hard)
Soderling - Vik
Handicap Vik(+4) 1.8 @FonBet

Robin Vik is truly the rising star of Czech tennis, a really universal player. This year is very
good for Vik, he won 2 indoor challengers, played well on clay and then switched back to hardcourts.
The Swede is not having the best year in his career, only 13-16 this year.
The H2H is close, so I Suppose +4 handicap will help here.

Robin Soderling Robin Vik Wimbledon - London
23.06.2003 q-Second Grass 4-6 6-2 6-2
Robin Vik Robin Soderling KGHM Polish Indoors - Wroclaw
03.02.2003 First I.hard 6-3 1-6 7-6(0)
Robin Soderling Robin Vik Internationaler Raiffeisen Grand Prix - St. Polten
20.05.2002 q-First Clay 7-6(4) 7-5

[Freddy81]

Metz (I.Hard)
Andreev I. - Mathieu P. 2/1.83/StanJames
Andreev had just won a claycourt tournament, and we know
that playing after the finals is rather hard by psychology.
Mathieu plays at home, has a good serve, at 2004 he was in seminals
having beaten Ivan Ljubicic. SJ's offer seems very good.

Good luck, Freddy
www.freddystennis.com (http://www.freddystennis.com)

[20Five]

I'm down for some of this... something to keep an eye on during my day off /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

gl fred /images/graemlins/club.gif

[20Five]

what happened to this matchup?? did someone drop out? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[20Five]

[ QUOTE ]
Metz (I.Hard)
Andreev I. - Mathieu P. 2/1.83/StanJames
Andreev had just won a claycourt tournament, and we know
that playing after the finals is rather hard by psychology.
Mathieu plays at home, has a good serve, at 2004 he was in seminals
having beaten Ivan Ljubicic. SJ's offer seems very good.

Good luck, Freddy
www.freddystennis.com (http://www.freddystennis.com)

[/ QUOTE ]

thanks for the winner /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[Freddy81]

Metz (I.Hard)

Seppi A. - Pavel A. 2/1.73/10Bet

Really good odds on a player who has 34-18 on indoor hard against one with 7-7. Pavel is a good fighter and a top-100 player, and Seppi has 7-17 on hard surfaces against top100. We know Seppi mainly as a claycourter, and his victory over Sabau must not be overestimated because Sabau is a claycourter too, and this match was the first for Seppi after the slow clay in Palermo. Considering all these facts, odds 1.73 on Pavel seems very nice.

Good luck,
Fred
www.freddystennis.com (http://www.freddystennis.com)

[balazs]

English isn't my first language, so sorry about the grammar.

I'm new to sports betting and was thinking of betting on tennis too. I have a few newbie questions if you don't mind answering.

What kind of money management are you using? Flat betting or something else?

What do you think of the "set betting" or "number of sets" or "At least one set" betting?

Somewhere I read that men's tennis is more reliable and therefore more suitable for betting. Is there enough of truth in it to completely focus on men's tennis betting?

Approximately how many worthy tennis bets you find in a year?

Could you be so kind and post some of you favorite links, other forums that you use for gathering information for handicapping?

[20Five]

[ QUOTE ]
Metz (I.Hard)

Seppi A. - Pavel A. 2/1.73/10Bet

Really good odds on a player who has 34-18 on indoor hard against one with 7-7. Pavel is a good fighter and a top-100 player, and Seppi has 7-17 on hard surfaces against top100. We know Seppi mainly as a claycourter, and his victory over Sabau must not be overestimated because Sabau is a claycourter too, and this match was the first for Seppi after the slow clay in Palermo. Considering all these facts, odds 1.73 on Pavel seems very nice.

Good luck,
Fred
www.freddystennis.com (http://www.freddystennis.com)

[/ QUOTE ]


Close one.. I didnt see this post in time to bet this match, and it looks like I got lucky as Seppi wins 7-5, 7-6.

Good luck in the future though, keep posting!

[Freddy81]

Moscow (Carpet)

Tursunov D . - Volandri P. 1/1.57/Pinnacle

There seems to be a value in these odds, because Tursunov is much more competitive on fast surfaces. He has better serve, better records 28-11 on indoors. Italian does not like to play against good servers, so Tursunov is clear favorite to me.

[Freddy81]

Well, I really find mens tennis to be more reliable than womens. But there are some periods for me when I try to avoid betting - it is late autumn which is always full of shitty surprises. As for me, I bet not more than 1 bet per week and do it for living. In most cases it is handicap on underdog ( like 2(+4), 2(+6) etc. ).
My betting strategy is described here very detailed:
www.freddystennis.com/analysis.html (http://www.freddystennis.com/analysis.html)

GL, Fred

[null]

In Tursunov D . - Volandri P. 1/1.57/Pinnacle, what does the 1 mean? I know 1.57 is the odds in European format. Does it mean +1 for Tursunov? I don't see that option on Pinnacle. You're picking Tursunov, right?

[Freddy81]

Yes, I pick Tursunov to win in the match for 1.57 (EU format). Match will be held tomorrow.

[Freddy81]

Tursunov just killed the poor claycourt Italian, congratulations to those who beleived in Tursunov /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Freddy81]

Moscow (carpet)

Rusedski G. - Kunitsyn I.
Handicap +4 on Kunitsyn / 1.85 / Fonbet

Kunitsyn fights very good at home, and he beat Santoro yesterday - good result. Rusedski likes to play tight matches with tiebreaks, so +4 handicap on Kunitsyn looks very nice. Last Kunitsyn records at home were against tough opponents, but +4 handicap played well. I expect a close match again.

Nikolay Davydenko Igor Kunitsyn St. Petersburg Open - St. Petersburg 25.10.2004 First Carpet 6-4 6-7(5) 6-4
Dominik Hrbaty Igor Kunitsyn Kremlin Cup - Moscow 15.10.2004 1/4 Carpet 7-6(2) 6-4

Good luck,
www.freddystennis.com (http://www.freddystennis.com)

[Freddy81]

Congratulations, guys - Kunitsyn had won /images/graemlins/smile.gif
Handicap was not needed, but +4 was a very sure bet for myself...

[null]

Thanks for the pick, I didn't bet your previous one, but I got this one. I look forward to more.

[Freddy81]

Mathieu P. - Verdasco F. 2/1.6/Pinnacle

Mathieu lost to Benneteau 1-6 3-6 without any fight, it is very bad because Benneteau is almost dead this year. Paul-Henri is going to vacation? Both Verdasco and Mathieu have similar results on indoors, and Mathieu is always having troubles with left-handers (13-18). Spaniard seems to be a solid bet.

Balance:
Staked =17; Payback=18.02; Profit=+1.02(+6.00% yield).
(www.freddystennis.com/archive.html)

[null]

Nice pick, another winner!

[Freddy81]

Kolding Challenger (Carpet)
Kunitcin I. - Wessels P. 2/1.9/GameBookers

Well, Kunitcin surprised by defeating Santoro, Rusedski and Pavel, but it was in Russia. Outside the home courts he is not so smart, and Wessels despite of having not very good year, is a tough opponent. He has a higher class, and it's time to prove it. But this is a challenger and everything could happen, so this bet cannot be called a "sure bet" - but still worth a try.
Archive (http://www.freddystennis.com.com/archive.html)

[Freddy81]

Lyon (Carpet)

Sanguinetti D. - Lopez F. 2/1.62/Canbet

Well, Feliciano is a decent fighter and lost 2 tight matches to Roddick and Stepanek. H2H is 2-0 on Lopez side, and the spanish left-hander should be inconvenient to Sanguinetti. Time to win, Feliciano!

[Freddy81]

AO qualies, Weiner to defeat Udomchoke.
Odds: 2.05 at BetAndWin

Glenn Weiner easily defeated Noam Okun, who is not that bad on open hardcourts. Good second service (9 of 15 = 60 %) and Net Approach(26 of 39 = 67 %) for Glenn.

Udomchoke had severe problems while defeating Stakhovsky (2-6, 6-3, 8-6) and must be tired. Stakhovsky is a very low leve player, and had 14 breakpoins at Udomchoke's service. Head-to-head is for American, so odds are nice and I go for American here.

www.freddystennis.com (http://www.freddystennis.com)

[Freddy81]

AO qualies, Patience to defeat Bogomolov.
Odds: 1.57 at BetAndWin

Let's see some statistics.

Bogomolov had a tough match against Niemeyer (6-7, 6-2, 12-10). Winning on 2nd serve is 48 % , 45 winners and 50 errors. Niemeyer had 79 errors - too much - and lost.

Let us look at Frencman stats against Ram. 56% at 2nd serve, 35 winners and only 18 errors! That shows that Olivier played active and error-free tennis.

If he'll play in the same manner with Bogomolov, he'll win.

[NLfool]

hey freddy really enjoy your picks good to see another tennis fan here. BTW I played against Weiner when I was 14 and he 18. He must be 30 years old now. Haven't kept up with much. Your site looks great though.

BTW I had the Netherlands to win the Hopman Cup at 50-1. I had $500 on that bet from the start. Then I put another 250 at 41 to 1. My year would've been great but they lost 7-6 in the 3rd set doubles match. OMFG ARGGGGGGGG

[Freddy81]

NLfool, I had the same bet on Netherlands and lost - I was VERY angry !
Thanks for good words abot the site - try to keep it pretty /images/graemlins/wink.gif

May be you'll have some contact with Glenn so we can benefit from his matches? /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Freddy81]

T. Henman - D. Tursunov 1
Australian Open, Henman to beat Tursunov.
Odds: 1.96 at Pinnacle

I suppose that it will be a revenge for the Wimbledon match - Tim has somewhat improved his serve in 2006 season. Now he hits not so fast, but very precise and where he wants it. Still do not beleive in Tursunov as high-class player, and of course he should not be a favourite here. Value in Tim.

J. Bjorkman - D. Gremelmayr 2(+6)
Australian Open, Gremelmayr not to lose for more than 6 games.
Odds: 1.85 at Fonbet

Bet on a qualifyer here. The German is pretty hot right now, and according to statistics he plays active tennis. Jonas is not getting younger, and I expect him to lose at least one set - that would be enough for beating the positive handicap.

T. Dent - G. Garcia-Lopez 2(+7)
Australian Open, Garcia Lopez not to lose for more than 7 games.
Odds: 1.97 at Fonbet

Dent is not that perfect that he was last year, I saw his match against Clement and Taylor made many errors and played really bad in long rallies. Garcia is doing pretty well at the baseline, and made some sensations at last AO. So Taylor should have some problems and probably will not that easy.

[NLfool]

what's up freddy hope the aussie open is working out well for you. Anyways I'll preface this by saying I don't watch much tennis anymore but I do know a lot of the little intangibles that may sway matches.

I've only seen ancic play a few times, plays same as his hero Ivanisevic (one of my fav players) but with less flashes of brilliance. Like almost all serve and volleyers he is very unpredictable and not very mentally strong. But it looks like he maybe growing into his own.

Hernych I've seen play only a few games on TV. Seems like a solid baseliner , maybe to me it seems he hits too flat , most serve and volleyers love a flat ball hitter and hate a mega topspinner that makes him hit lots of low balls at weird angles, so this doesn't work well for Hernych.

To me baseliners are not usually quiters so I expect him to battle, Ancic I don't know if he shows up for every match

I think hernych is probably a 4.00 underdog so 5 seems like a little bit of value.

Past matches are 6-4 6-4 and 6-4 6-4 both on grass won by ancic though. Diff surface and diff weather. I don't know of current health or injuries so tell me what you think.

Small value here.

[Freddy81]

Spent 20 hours at a row on live betting /images/graemlins/smile.gif
Perhaps you're right, Hernych is not bad this year having lost to Ollie Rochus and Hewitt in 3 sets. But before the matches, I prefer to go with handicaps. Fonbet and Gamebookers offer about +6 or +7 on Hernych, it looks pretty nice. Odds are well also.

[Freddy81]

Ancic - Hernych(+6.5) handicap
Odds: 1.85 at GameBookers
Australian Open, Hernych not to lose for more than 6 games. As a "hit-and-run" player, Mario dislikes good baseliners. Hernych is reliable on baseline, and considering Mario's mental instability - I go for this handicap.

D. Nalbandian- S. Wawrinka(+6) handicap
Odds: 1.85 at GameBookers
Australian Open, Wawrinka not to lose for more than 6 games. David is far the most talented player in the tour, but he often loose concentration in his matches. With Udomchoke, he evel lost 2 sets. Wawrinka is surely more decent player, so Stan can get a set easily here - and handicap will be win.

G.Garcia- Lopez - J. Benneteau : G.Garcia-Lopes to win.
Odds: 1.64 at MediaBet
Australian Open, Garcia to defeat Benneteau. So what we have here? A good baseliner on a slow surface of Melbourne - Rebound Ace. Garcia is a very accurate player, makes few errors - Benneteau will lose because of his errors and overall bad shape.

[Freddy81]

T. Johansson- G. Simon(+6) : handicap on Simon
Odds: 1.85 at GameBookers

Australian Open, Simon not to lose for more than 6 games. It's rather strange to see such odds for Gilles Simon here. Yes, Thomas is a former AO champion and a decent player. But he is not getting younger. Both players had tough matches beforehand, and I vote for Simon here. H2H is 1-0 for Simon in 2005 on hard.

[freewheeler]

For what it's worth... I can NOT see Hingis advancing past Clijsters tonight. Yes, it's been a wonderful story. Lovely to see the "Swiss Miss" back out there playing well after such a long lay-off. But she hits the big time tonight. Now she's finally made it to the top tier and is playing a truly world class player. Forget about the injury worry. Kim has not been slowed by it at all. If this were a final, you might be worried about her psyche, but in this spot she will simply outclass Hingis - and overpower her IMO. At 4/9 the odds don't appeal all that much, but Pinny's also offers +128 against Clijsters in straight sets. This bet is SERIOUSLY good value IMO. Hingis will be lucky to get more than a couple of games off Clijsters, and will not even come close to winning a set.

[freewheeler]

And for all you value-seekers out ther. Consensus has Kiefer a solid favourite over Grosjean, but apparently sportsbook.com has not caught on. They have Grosjean slightly favoured and Kiefer at 10/11. You can not find Kiefer this cheap anywhere else. And BTW, they also have Clijsters best priced at -220. Kiefer/Clijsters at sportsbook.com is a +EV parlay.

[Freddy81]

Hi guys,

I see a nice bet today on Las Vegas tennis tournament.

Mirnyi M. - Malisse X., Malisse to win. Odds: 1.63, Bookie: Pinnacle

Mirnyi is a typical serve-dependent player playing against a good universal player Xavier Malisse. Well, Max lost 0-6 1-6 to Soderling, that means he lost his only weapon - the powerful serve. Malisse will greatly overcome him at the baseline.

[MadTiger]

Keeping this thread in style is a hard job, huh?

Hehe.

Carry on.