Flush with AQ

[Steve09797]

Villians stats are 32 / 10.7 / 3. I'm not sure if I missed my bet here on the turn or if I even gain a bet with goin on the instinct that he bets out the river. What do you guys think?

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, UTG calls.

Flop: (7.33 SB) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO folds, UTG calls.

Turn: (5.66 BB) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, Hero checks.

River: (5.66 BB) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG calls.

Final Pot: 9.66 BB

[ackid]

Nice Hand Sir.

[DreamShatterer]

I think you're losing value when attempting this sort of play. I think villain will incorrectly pay off a turn bet with any pair, or marginal draw (i.e. gutshot + overcard).

It's important to note, that you gain no value by taking this line when villain holds a pair, since villain will also pay 2BBs when he calls both the river and turn. You may even lose a couple of BBs by denying villain the chance to check-raise with a strong top pair hand (or any strong hand, for that matter), or to bet into you on the river after calling the turn.

It's also likely you'll lose 1BB (the turn bet) when villain improves and would've bet into you on the river anyway. And villain check/folding a draw on the river, which he would've called on the turn, is also possible.

Overall, I think you're losing a ton of value here, and needlessly playing risky.

[n.s.]

I would only ever make this play if you thought that villain really had nothing and was extremely likely to fold to the turn bet. The fact that he bet into the PF raiser on the flop, and the turn card isn't that much of a scare card (your flop doesn't look like a flush draw to lots of players) means that he probably has enough to call down with, or a draw that'll pay a bet on the turn but not the river.

[TRD23]

Can't say I am a fan of this. Unless you KNOW he is going to fold the turn if you bet, I think bet turn, bet river is by far the optimal play.

The chances of him not betting on the river or folding to your river raise are significantly greater then the chances of him folding to a bet on the turn.

[Kwaz]

[ QUOTE ]
bet turn, bet river is by far the optimal play.


[/ QUOTE ]

[M0n3y0nf1r3]

Bet the turn because he is the type of player that could make any random hand that he may want to go nuts w/ u such as 2 pair; a set he slow rolled; or a low flush. Evaluate the river and you may extract even more.
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