Stars NL50 6-max: Big draw on the flop facing an all-in

[pahala]

Ok, this is the first time I'm doing this, so be gentle. Villain is 33/12/1.86 after ~130 hands, no other reads.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB ($39.95)
BB ($29.20)
UTG ($2.15)
Hero ($55.65)
CO ($49.25)
Button ($50)

Preflop: Hero is MP with T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $1.5</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls $1.50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls $1.

Flop: ($4.75) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $3</font>, Hero calls $3, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $48.5</font>, BB folds, Hero ?

Can I call this? He hasn't been doing anything crazy so far, so he does have something here. The worst case would be something like A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, but would he push with that? Against two pair I'm something like 47-53 to about even, against a set it's about 40-60.

The preflop raise is quite small yet standard at the table on that time. The hand I'm raising with is, I admit, marginal at best. Disregard that, let's concentrate on the flop action. Can I call his all-in? Should I have raised instead of calling the bet from BB?

[jonyy6788]

If you have the bankroll to accept variance with this call then this is probably a call. Getting 59:43=1.3:1

I think too often you see made hands like 9T or AT to make this profitable though.

[98Suited]

I'd dump this this pretty fast, you don't have much invested. I think he has KQ or maybe an A10o that's scared of the draws.

I don't like a flop raise since this board is likely to have hit your opponants well.

[Thremp]

I'd dump as well.

[Vyse]

snap call

[losingdonkey]

If you like being a .8% favorite call

[Thremp]

This is like an instafold.

What are you ahead of or have equity on that is going to RR AI for a massive overbet?

[rocco1999]

call, u have to get the money in on flop with such hands.. he is likely trying to protect his hand from getting outdrawn. and yes, you have to raise it

[jonyy6788]

[ QUOTE ]
If you like being a .8% favorite call

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not so much that we're favorites is why we're getting it in here...we're only getting it in if pot odds are favorable. I don't have poker stove on me at the moment, but could somebody analyze our draw against a range of AT, T9, any two pair combos, any sets (less likely tho in my opinion).

[UnlikelyNinja]

Fold pre-flop.

As played...well, you're dead to AT of spades, most likely.

[corsakh]

You need to answer two questions:
1) Will you tilt if you loose?
2) Do you have rakeback /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[pahala]

Good to see this has split opinions.

[ QUOTE ]
You need to answer two questions:
1) Will you tilt if you loose?
2) Do you have rakeback /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I would have gone to sleep soon after this no matter what happens. And naturally, no rakeback since it's Stars /images/graemlins/smile.gif (or maybe /images/graemlins/frown.gif )

[ QUOTE ]
If you have the bankroll to accept variance with this call then this is probably a call. Getting 59:43=1.3:1


[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, calling this is high-variance play. I spent almost my whole timebank on this, but ended up calling.

Results:
<font color="white">
Hero: calls $45.50
*** TURN *** [Qd Jh Kd] [3d]
(Yahtzee!)
*** RIVER *** [Qd Jh Kd 3d] [4s]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Hero: shows [Td 8d] (a flush, King high)
Villain: mucks Kh Qh
Hero collected $101.75 from pot
</font>

[Jouster777]

I assume this thread is pretty much dead here but it should be a split decision because it doesn't matter if we call or fold...our odds of hitting pretty much match the pot odds.
$45 to win $60 =&gt; 42.8%

Board: Qd Kd Jh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 56.073% 55.37% 00.70% 30150 381.50 { QQ-JJ, AKs, AdJd, Ad9d, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, KJs+, QJs, Td9d, AKo, AdJc, AdJh, AdJs, KJo+, QJo }
Hand 1: 43.927% 43.23% 00.70% 23537 381.50 { Td8d }


Edit: screwed up that range a bit but a corrected range is still the same:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 56.655% 55.93% 00.72% 29902 386.00 { QQ-JJ, AKs, AdJd, Ad9d, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, KJs+, QJs, Jd9d, AKo, KJo+, QJo }
Hand 1: 43.345% 42.62% 00.72% 22786 386.00 { Td8d }

[Freelancer]

Meh I call but I like coinflips. Its about break even anyway and image/crazy looks are worth something as well...