UB 10NL - OOP facing reraise with 1010

[Crimsonjade]

This guy is 48 / 5 / 2.24

Villain has stacked off twice recently. Once with the goods, once with a monster flop that he got paid off on.

I know his pfr is low, but we have been tangling for the last 30 hands or so. He raised me light once or twice before. I don't like a call here because I am OOP and will have a hard time playing this hand if any overcards hit the flop. I don't want to fold because I think my 1010 is ahead of his range enough of the time. Is a shove here fine?

Ultimate Bet
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.05./$0.10.
5 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
UTG: $1.69
CO: $6.98
Button: $31.25
Hero: $10.47
BB: $16.05

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is SB with T/images/graemlins/spade.gif T/images/graemlins/heart.gif
2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Button raises to $0.2</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $0.55</font>, BB folds, <font color="#cc0000">Button raises to $1.95</font>

[MrMxyztplk]

Just fold. The problem here is that say you are in fact ahead of his range and he's got some AK and AQ hands in his range. How do you expect to be payed off? He would have to hit A/K/Q and you your T. Slim chance of that. And what if he happens to have JJ+? You're toast.

[Crimsonjade]

I guess I figured I had some FE vs broadways and some lower pp's. Just to be sure, the amount of the reraise is the indicator here that I am beat?

[MrMxyztplk]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess I figured I had some FE vs broadways and some lower pp's. Just to be sure, the amount of the reraise is the indicator here that I am beat?

[/ QUOTE ]

About the size of his PFR, it's hard to say. Some raise big for FE and because, as you said, you've been tangling. Others do it for value knowing you'll call too much, again because you've been tangling. You have to get in his head on that one. Safe bet is just to fold.

But I'm concerned about this talk of FE on TT. TT is not an FE kind of hand. You want value or you fold. You should rarely be bluffing with TT, that is, you shouldn't think about it's FE. What you want with TT against overs is for him to bet unimproved and for you to call. But as I said, that's dangerous, because you don't know whether he's making those bets w/ AK or KK, and so you end up making mistakes (either folding when he has AK or calling down when he has KK).

[Marshall28]

the other problem is that you cant call his 4bet to 2 dollars because it costs about $1.50 .... your whole stack is only 10 dollars. you dont have the right implied odds to hit a set and stack him if its even the case that he does have a bigger pair. you really cant put in more than 10 percent of your stack unless you are certain for whatever reason he has ak or aq ... and even in those cases, if you are so certain you should probably just shove. i dont see how u ever could be, it makes this an easy fold.

[Crimsonjade]

Thanks guys, much clearer for me now.

[Marshall28]

yeah sure :O

[Crimsonjade]

Actually Marshall, one more thing: I am trying to go through the implied odds on this hand but am not sure about some things.

So I would have to pay $1.50 to win $2, which means I am basically getting 1:1 on my money correct? My problem is, how much money would we both have to have behind still to make the shove a correct call?

[Marshall28]

im no math genius, but i think what you are talking about are expressed odds.

expressed odds are the immediate odds you are getting on your call.

implied odds are basically how much you think you can win from your opponent if its the case that you do make your hand.

shoving isnt a call, you shove if you think you can get your opponent to fold a better hand, or if u think u can get him to call with a worse hand, the decision has nothing to do w/ pot odds. sorry if i havent explained it very well, math isnt my strong suit, and im sure someone else can do a much better job, there are also plenty of places online and in books where you can read about expressed and implied odds.

[Marshall28]

i think what they call it is the 5/10 rule ... basically is says if you have a suited connector, u should never call off more than 5 percent of your stack preflop to hit a hand. and you shouldnt ever call off more than 10 percent of your stack pf if you have a small pair to hit a set.

[Crimsonjade]

[ QUOTE ]
you shove if you think you can get your opponent to fold a better hand, or if u think u can get him to call with a worse hand

[/ QUOTE ]

That part was confusing me in the other post. Thanks for clarifying.

[MrMxyztplk]

[ QUOTE ]
i think what they call it is the 5/10 rule ... basically is says if you have a suited connector, u should never call off more than 5 percent of your stack preflop to hit a hand. and you shouldnt ever call off more than 10 percent of your stack pf if you have a small pair to hit a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not quite. If you're in position with a suited connector than:

If bet is more than 10% of your stack, easy fold
If bet is less than 5% of your stack, easy call

Between 5 and 10 is up to you to fiture out.

That should stir up some thought as to what to do with a suited connector when you're OUT of position.

[Marshall28]

ummm, kick it in when youre oop? ... god, i hardly even call raises oop.

[Crimsonjade]

5/10 rule applies to 22-1010 for set mining as well, correct?

[MrMxyztplk]

[ QUOTE ]
... god, i hardly even call raises oop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good man.