NL25 - Combo draw push

[Triggerle]

Villian was a standard TAG who lost a couple stacks already. Pokertracker later issued a showdown muppet icon to him but that kicks in after 50 hands so at the time I was basically readless with regard to numbered stats. Even now, I think the icon is a little premature since he could just have had bad luck for a couple big hands.

EverestPoker Game #1204964578: Table Muscat-18 - $0.15/$0.25 - No Limit Hold'em - 22:36:40 - 2007/03/04
Seat 1: Button ($78.49)
Seat 2: SB ($49.17)
Seat 3: BB ($24.60)
Seat 4: UTG ($22.90)
Seat 6: Hero ($25.36)
SB posts the small blind of $0.15
BB posts the big blind of $0.25
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero[7/images/graemlins/heart.gif 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif]
<font color="red">UTG raises to $1.00</font>
Hero calls $1.00
Button calls $1.00
SB calls $0.85
BB folds
*** FLOP *** [K/images/graemlins/spade.gif 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif J/images/graemlins/heart.gif]
SB checks
<font color="red">UTG bets $4.25</font>
<font color="red">Hero raises to $24.36 and is all-in</font>

[Jouster777]

Very weak combo draw...other than the flush only a gs to the ignorant end of a straight with 3 others you need to fold out with your push.

Just call and hope someone else calls too.

[Triggerle]

I see your point. FWIW, Pokerstove says this (Since he raised UTG I excluded hands like JTs):

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
Board: Ks 9h Jh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.686% 54.21% 00.48% 42395 375.00 { 55+, AJs+, KQs, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 45.314% 44.83% 00.48% 35065 375.00 { 8h7h }
</pre><hr />

I play combo draws very aggessively too, nh in my opinion.

[matrix]

[ QUOTE ]
Villian was a standard TAG who lost a couple stacks already. Pokertracker later issued a showdown muppet icon to him but that kicks in after 50 hands so at the time I was basically readless with regard to numbered stats.

[/ QUOTE ]

showdown muppets are people with a WTSD% thats too high who tend to lose a lot of SD's IIRC.

the icons that pop up are basically useless until you get a huge # of stats on someone like at leas ~500 hands worth.

different stats converge at different speeds - seeing as you don't normally play every hnd you are dealt to SD the Went to SD stat is one of the longest (in order to really determine if people see too many SD's overall and aren't just running hot/bad you need them to get to SD often)

You can get a reasonable handle on vpip/pfr and cbet% after 50 hands thats about it. Other stats can be very very misleading until you have a good sample and a bunch of them alter the icons.

bad push cos there's a K out - if you hit your straight any naked Q beats you.

you basically have just the flush outs and with so many people seeing hte flop one is almost bound to call you.

I'd put UTG on AK or similar and guess he called here - if he has AKhh or worse KQhh thats about as bad as it can get for your hand.

I'd call but probably be folding the turn/checking behind and hoping to win a medium pot when I hit.

If we have a read that he's a muppet - I'd definitely not be pushing here.

[Thremp]

Hawt.

[Triggerle]

Matrix,

Thanks for the thoughts. I agree about the stats thing. This is why I qualified what was showing up on my HUD.

FWIW I hit my flush and won the hand against his AKo (no heart I think) but I immediately thought that there was something fishy about my AI. This is why I posted the hand.

[Brian O'Nolan]

Fold pf. Seriously- coldcalling a tight player's UTG pfr in EP with sc's is bad. And why are you pushing what is basically a flush draw against someone you think likes showing down? If your read on him is accurate he's probably calling with AK or better here.