$50NL Another overpair decision

[AliasMrJones]

Villain is 57/0/8 over 25 hands...

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

AliasMrJones ($46.75)
BB ($64.10)
UTG ($60.20)
MP ($59.95)
CO ($59)
Button ($94.85)

Preflop: AliasMrJones is SB with Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $2</font>, MP calls $2, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">AliasMrJones raises to $10</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG folds, MP calls $8.

Flop: ($22.50) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">AliasMrJones bets $16</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $38.5</font>, AliasMrJones ???

[munkey]

I'm ignoring those stats somewhat, over 25 hands I'm playing nothing -&gt;maniac that raises everything.

Any notes,reads?, if his true vpvip is ~40%+, then he's probably showdown some hands.

Preflop is good -build a big pot preflop.

Flop decision is push/fold, if you think he'll do this with Tx or UI overcards or a PP given the flop is paired and missed any non-pair hands and he know this too then I shove.
It is a tricky situation @ that fo sho, I would expect to see a 6x a fair amount of time but prob. less than the pot odds offered.

I think after your flop bet, the potsize and 1/2 your stack is in and &lt; 1/2 left in your stack I would just go with my feeling and shove.

FYI Villan 'potsized' raised you on the turn in his eyes.


FWIW I bet 2/3 pot on flop, if he thinks this is weak and will raise then another additional reason to shove.

[prodonkey]

You sure get yourself in a lot of difficult situations.. all your posts i've seen lately I've gone UGH!

Have to figure out what kind of range he has.. he's playing 57% and raising 0.. over a very small sample though. Could he have AA/KK I'd say possible, but not very likely maybe 5% chance. Could he have TT, I'd say that's a lot more likely something like 15-20% chance. Could he have 6x, looking at his stats that's more likely than anything.. I'd say 35-45% chance.. Leaving a 30-45% chance he has something like a small pocket pair that didn't hit.. AQ whatever.. and just thinks you missed that flop. I'm too tired to do the EV calculation right now.. I would probably suck it up and push after taking my time thinking about it.

[BishopsFinger]

edit: scratch this part didnt see the stats

i think this is a push for me, youre up against other pps enough to make it profitable but i wouldnt feel too too bad if you laid it down - youre certainly going to be beat here a fair amount of the time but against this guy its a push.

[avfletch]

This is a pretty sucky spot and I think you're beat a lot but you charged him enough preflop that it doesn't matter if he just showed up with a 6. I'm happy to shove here every time.