50NL, 67s flops monster draw. Does this smell?

[_TKO_]

Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
5 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
UTG: $49.25
CO: $149.71
Hero: $45
SB: $28.98
BB: $49.95

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is Button with 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif
<font color="#cc0000">UTG raises to $2</font>, CO calls, Hero calls, SB calls, BB folds.

Flop: 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif T/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($8.5, 4 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#cc0000">CO bets $5</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises all-in $43</font>

[Sean Fraley]

You have eleven outs, and six unseen hearts that are higher than your seven. I would raise as a semi-bluff, but not shove this.

[losingdonkey]

this is kind of ridiculous, you have a flush draw and a few outs to trips or two pair. I may raise the flop to 15 or so if villain cbets a lot, but you've got two people to act behind you. I'd probably just call the flop and re-evaluate on the turn.

[davidyang]

People are doing this so often now, sometimes I think it's becoming really transparent what you have when you do this. This might not be a bad thing, b/c you still have a ton of equity and your hand has a lot of value even against an overpair.

Just wondering, do you ever do this with sets or two pairs?

[barryc83]

I dont like it. Just raise to $18, fire on the turn if you hit and take the free one if you miss. Use your position here. $18 serves the same purpose as $43 against an opponent who can lay down a hand and lets you see the last 2 cards cheaper against a fish who cant fold a T.

[ImprovinNewbie]

i think so. the only problem is i think the risk/reward ratio for your bet is off. a smaller huge raise would do the trick even though you do most likely want to get your money in. that is a pretty big raise.... almost 10X. also i lose these hands when i play them like this like it;s my job.

[_TKO_]

[ QUOTE ]
You have eleven outs, and six unseen hearts that are higher than your seven. I would raise as a semi-bluff, but not shove this.

[/ QUOTE ]

14 outs (unless you already discounted).

[Montezuma21]

i've often thought of making the same move on occasion. i don't really think it's that bad TBH. ~It maximises FE both against CO and stronger FD behind you. It's pretty transparent what you have, but ppl. just don't like to call all-in bets. i think it's pretty good at this level.

I notice you play on party. i live in the UK and have thought about making the switch from FTP. Is is worth it? are the games softer there? if you don;'t want to clutter this thread please shoot me a PM.

peace.

[Sean Fraley]

[ QUOTE ]
14 outs (unless you already discounted).

[/ QUOTE ]
Sorry, I miscounted. Though if we shave half an out off for every heart higher than your seven, it does come to eleven outs.

[_TKO_]

[ QUOTE ]
I dont like it. Just raise to $18, fire on the turn if you hit and take the free one if you miss. Use your position here. $18 serves the same purpose as $43 against an opponent who can lay down a hand and lets you see the last 2 cards cheaper against a fish who cant fold a T.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't really care if I get called, since I'm going broke anyway if I'm crushed on the flop. Two-pair or a set is definately re-raising here. The real question is whether or not I'll be paid off if I hit. Against a likely two-pair or set, calling is usually better since you'll get paid if you hit your flush. However, the bet in this spot is hard to interpret as a big hand, so it seems a semi-bluff would be good in this spot against one opponent. However, with 2 other players in the pot, I may be able to build a bigger pot and hope for overcalls, certainly a consideration with a monster draw.

I like your argument if there's evidence that my opponent can't fold.

[_TKO_]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
14 outs (unless you already discounted).

[/ QUOTE ]
Sorry, I miscounted. Though if we shave half an out off for every heart higher than your seven, it does come to eleven outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure what we gain by discounting for those outs?

In any case, note that I'm actually a favourite against a better flush draw, though he would still be correct to call if he knew what I had.

[_TKO_]

[ QUOTE ]
Just wondering, do you ever do this with sets or two pairs?

[/ QUOTE ]

In this pot, I definately would.

[thejesterj]

I would be hesitant to do this because there are too many hands out there that beat yours. Aside from a higher flush draw, you are also behind to any with TPGK, even if their kicker isn't a heart, an even bigger underdog if it is a heart, then there are two pair and sets. Two pair are unlikely given all the calls of the preflop raise. I feel like this is one of those situations where the only players who call you are going to have you beaten.

[davidyang]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Just wondering, do you ever do this with sets or two pairs?

[/ QUOTE ]

In this pot, I definately would.

[/ QUOTE ]

In that case I think doing this from time to time is ok. It helps a lot too if you're playing with some regulars who'll take note of this.

[Sean Fraley]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure what we gain by discounting for those outs?

[/ QUOTE ]

Nothing really. I just miscounted earlier, but thought I would make a rough discount calculation just because you mentioned it. In reality we really only need to discount them if we believe that villain is also likely to be on a heart draw.

[davidyang]

[ QUOTE ]
I would be hesitant to do this because there are too many hands out there that beat yours. Aside from a higher flush draw, you are also behind to any with TPGK, even if their kicker isn't a heart, an even bigger underdog if it is a heart, then there are two pair and sets. Two pair are unlikely given all the calls of the preflop raise. I feel like this is one of those situations where the only players who call you are going to have you beaten.

[/ QUOTE ]

If hero gets called, he's definitely behind unless someone has a higher flush draw. However, we're actually a favorite to a ton of hands that aren't sets or two pairs.

[thejesterj]

[/ QUOTE ] If hero gets called, he's definitely behind unless someone has a higher flush draw. However, we're actually a favorite to a ton of hands that aren't sets or two pairs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. But are any of those hands that hero is beating going to call a raise? The only hand we're beating that will call is an even lower flush draw, and there aren't that many of those.

I kind of like a call here, because then there's a good chance the two players behind you might call (or at least one of them), and then hero will probably be getting the right odds against the calling hands.

[_TKO_]

[ QUOTE ]
I would be hesitant to do this because there are too many hands out there that beat yours. Aside from a higher flush draw, you are also behind to any with TPGK, even if their kicker isn't a heart, an even bigger underdog if it is a heart, then there are two pair and sets. Two pair are unlikely given all the calls of the preflop raise. I feel like this is one of those situations where the only players who call you are going to have you beaten.

[/ QUOTE ]

Excluding T2,72, let's figure I'm called by better hands, and some better flush draws. Even though I'm behind, my equity is still close to even. I need 1.27:1 odds to make a +EV decision.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.519% 44.52% 00.00% 22917 1.50 { 7h6h }
Hand 1: 55.481% 55.48% 00.00% 28560 1.50 { TT+, 77, 22, AhKh, AhQh, AhJh, ATs, T7s, ATo, T7o }

If I push and am callled, the pot will be $94. I'll win this 44% of the time, earning me an average of $41.36. So, you're right, I lose just under $2 on average by making this play. However, this assumes the opponent will call 100% of the time. In order to assess the advantage we gain by making him fold better hands, we must come up with a range of better hands with which he would actually be betting.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.146% 46.09% 00.05% 43808 49.50 { 7h6h }
Hand 1: 53.854% 53.80% 00.05% 51133 49.50 { TT+, 77, 22, AhKh, AhJh, A7s, KTs, QTs, Qh9h, JTs, T9s, T7s, A7o, KTo, QTo, JTo, T9o, T7o }

Once again, if he calls our all-in, then the pot will be $94. But this time, we will get 46% of it on average, which is worth $43.16, an increase that makes our all-in +EV. Note that rake has been neglected. Since the decision is very close, rake would actually turn this play -EV.

Once again, it looks like pushing is a bad play, but not by much. Adding in the possibility that he is betting with a worse hand than ours, pushing may become slightly +EV. Throwing in a hand like 98 raises our equity to 49%, which will earn us $46.06, which is clearly +EV.

Still, note a previous poster's suggestion of raising smaller. The more we raise, the more hands there are that get dropped from his calling range. However, at a certain point, we reach a level of diminishing returns; that is, raising more money earns us little gain in fold equity. There is certainly merit to raising smaller.

[Check_The_Nuts]

this hand looks really hard to play, I dunno what the right answer is, but:

Raising smaller (to 15 or 20) or whatever still pot sticks you. Its no different than pushing really. Also, I don't think QQ-AA is really in CO's range very often. He could have JJ or QQ, but most people know to reraise KK-AA by this time (you didn't give stats though).

If he's got the overpair he's going to pay you off if you hit a 6 or 7, but probably not the flush. If you've ever floated this guy or whatever with mediocre hands then I think he may pay off a turn bet but not a river.

I don't think I could call two streets on this one. I would def. check back if he checked turn.

edit: lol @ agreeing with a guy nicknamed "losing donkey"...

[Vyse]

Everyone likes to play these type of hands super aggressively, but for the most part I consider my hand simply to be on a flush draw. I'm much more inclined to smooth call and just try to hit rather than raise, cause any real-sized raise commits us to the turn anyway.