25NL bot set tough river decision

[jvans]

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
7 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
UTG: $13.20
UTG+1: $50.20
MP1: $15.50
CO: $27.55
Button: $23.50
SB: $48.40
Hero: $49.45

Pre-flop: (7 players) Hero is BB with J/images/graemlins/heart.gif J/images/graemlins/spade.gif
<font color="#cc0000">UTG raises to $0.85</font>, 4 folds, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises to $2</font>, Hero calls, UTG folds.

Flop: Q/images/graemlins/club.gif J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif K/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($4.85, 2 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $4</font>, SB calls.

Turn: 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($12.85, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks.

River: 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($12.85, 2 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $12</font>, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises to $30</font>, Hero folds.
Uncalled bets: $18 returned to SB.

Results:
Final pot: $36.85

I really think he has an overset here, does anyone think i should be calling this river bet? I dont really think im beating any hand here besides a bluff. Either way it was a hard fold on the river and im wondering how i coudl have played the hand better

[ViolentGandhi]

Is KQ or KJ in sb's reraising range here? I actually like your river fold.

[carnivalhobo]

your thought process is wack, decide on a range for your opponents and then play accordingly, the call pre, then flop donk and river bet fold dont add up.

[Triggerle]

Isn't AK, maybe AQ/AJ a large part of his range? By checking behind on the turn we have underrep'd our hand quite a bit. So I don't think we can fold to his raise.

I'm quite interested to hear what kind of line one should take. I would probably bet the turn for $8 and then not know what to do when he raises because we are so deep (I would push over a raise with 100bb stacks).

[losingdonkey]

I like the line, I HATE the fold

[Sean Fraley]

Am I the only one here who thinks that Hero checking behind on the turn led a villain holding AK to believe that he was up a against a paired queen, jack, or weaker king? I'm thinking that Hero needs to at least call here, and the only reason for not shoving is in case this was a sandbagging AT, QQ, or KK that missed his turn check-raise. In the event that it is AT, QQ, or KK suck up the loss and put an appropriate comment about how Villain plays that hand in your notes.

[IJackit]

[ QUOTE ]
I really think he has an overset here, does anyone think i should be calling this river bet? I dont really think im beating any hand here besides a bluff. Either way it was a hard fold on the river and im wondering how i coudl have played the hand better

[/ QUOTE ]

1. Why not re-raise pre-flop?

2. What makes you so sure he has a set?

He easily could have called the turn with TPTK or 2 pair or a pair of tens or K 10 or AA. Why would he figure you for a set when you checked here.

Then when you bet the river in position after no draws came home to roost he blew you off of your hand. He believed he was best and so did you so why not.

It is possible that he flopped a set or a straight here but I would say that is about 20% possible and 80% you are ahead.

With position in this hand I would have re-raised pre-flop. Bet the flop and the turn and maybe if called in all spots checked behind on the river.



You played your hand weakly and he played you like you had a weak hand

[davidyang]

4-betting preflop turns your hand essentially into a bluff. Preflop is fine. I think I would bet turn too.