10NL Set on the river, how to extract?

[Supwithbates]

Villain is 33/7/1.77 over 60 hands
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($11)
UTG ($5.60)
MP ($14.50)
Button ($14.15)
Hero ($9.90)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls $0.10, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $0.3</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $0.8</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2.25</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG folds, MP folds, Button calls $1.45.

Flop: ($5) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets $0.5</font>, Hero calls $0.50.

Turn: ($6) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets $1</font>, Hero calls $1.

River: ($8) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero ???


If Villain is slowplaying AK/KK/TT I can get his stack but if he's donkplaying QQ/JJ then he won't call a large bet.
If he's slowplaying a big hand he might push over my bet so I'm thinking a smaller bet might be best, so what size would you make the river bet?

BTW, I'm not raising here on the flop or turn b/c I'm way ahead or way behind since I put his range preflop as AK, TT+ and I'm extracting from one hand, getting stacked by two and just folding out two hands I beat (QQ/JJ) by playing strong

[chanchuan]

I think this is terrible, why would you _not_ bet the flop and not raise the funny minbet? Are you waiting till you hit quads?

Same for turn, I believe you're strongly overanalyzing this, just bet, villain is loose and you're holding AA (!)

[avfletch]

I'd worry less about what to bet on the river and more about how you got there.

Why did you check/call the flop and turn?

[Supwithbates]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd worry less about what to bet on the river and more about how you got there.

Why did you check/call the flop and turn?

[/ QUOTE ]
check/calling the flop and turn is optimal, read my reasoning.

I have no doubt that my line is flawless for the flop and turn. The pot was 4bet preflop; what exactly does a raise protect my hand from? His range here is TT+, AK.
If he has AK, he's stacked. If he has TT or KK, I'm stacked. If he has JJ or QQ, he's way behind but not calling a raise.
Flop and turn are a classic way ahead/way behind situation that necessitates that I NOT build a big pot.

The only hand that I could possibly protect against is AcKc. Since his range is about 30-40 different hand combos, it's really not worth all the value I lose by fastplaying.

[and12006]

But by raising you find out where you stand and won't lose anymore with AA though at 10NL you'll see very werid fishy play so its often to correct to fastplay regardless.

[slickss]

Drawy board, bet like crazy.

[crushednuts]

I would raise the flop because you won't fold out a king. I think you want to build a pot with this hand against the hands you are way ahead of. The pot is pretty big on the flop and why let the guy hit a second pair on you if he has KQ or something. What would you do if the river was a queen? Check? Lead for value?

[NWCougar]

[ QUOTE ]
I have no doubt that my line is flawless for the flop and turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Enjoy a lifetime in the micros. You played this hand terribly

[crushednuts]

[ QUOTE ]

Enjoy a lifetime in the micros. You played this hand terribly

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No need to flame the guy...Give some advice or save us the trouble of reading your post

[avfletch]

If your analysis of the rest of the hand is correct (I'm not convinced but fair enough) then I doubt you can do better than shoving this river.

[RAHZero]

[ QUOTE ]
I have no doubt that my line is flawless for the flop and turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are wrong. Your line on the flop and turn is not optimal, it's pretty much the worst possible way you can play the hand. What was your plan on the river if it was a blank? Check-call? That's ridiculously weak-tight. 4-bet pots with only 100 BB stacks are not the time to be thinking WA/WB. Thinking that you are going to be able to exhibit pot control when the size of your stacks are barely more than the pot-size going to the flop is completely irrational. You are giving your NL $10 opponent WAY, WAY too much credit here. As played, this is a trivially easy river shove, he's not folding a set/AK and you can't get much value out of QQ/JJ. The value you give up by making a small bet hoping to trap QQ/JJ (which might fold anyway) is way too great to do anything but shove here.

[Archon_Wing]

[ QUOTE ]
I have no doubt that my line is flawless for the flop and turn. The pot was 4bet preflop; what exactly does a raise protect my hand from? His range here is TT+, AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't bet to just protect your hand. You bet for value. The pot is large on the flop, and even the worst villains know the bigger pots are worth fighting for and will probaly felt any decent hand since there's always the chance you are bluffing. Especialy at these stakes where nobody will put you on AA.
You will just lose value once your opponents catch up, and you will lose a big pot everytime that happens for every time you extract a little extra value. And let's admit it, if you're opponents are way behind and won't call on the flop, they won't call anything unless they beat you on a later street.

[Vyse]

I have no idea what you are doing in this hand. Raise flop. Raise turn. Shove river.

[Supwithbates]

Alright guys, I gave you a read and you toss it aside telling me that I'm wrong. I'm telling you that this guy isn't calling a 4-bet without AK, TT+.

At 10NL, players are VERY loose. However, they do NOT 3-bet light, they aren't aggressive enough. This guy only raises 7% of his hands preflop, and you're telling me to fastplay AA here to stack a hand like KQ? That's barely within his raising range!
Players at 10NL are loose CALLERS, but they don't make thin bets/raises because they don't understand the value of aggression.

With 7pfr, I don't see how you guys can seriously dispute my preflop range for villain of TT+, AK. Given THIS flop, against THIS range, I am either way ahead or way behind of every possible holding in this range, and the one I brought up earlier (AcKc) isn't possible because I have the Ac. If I lead out on the flop, I MIGHT get a call from QQ/JJ, but never again on the turn. The problem with leading the flop is one of reverse implied odds. If I lead the flop with any substantial bet, I've thrown pot control to the wind and have to stack off in a marginal situation where 2 out of 3 of his holdings have me destroyed.

What are the reasons for fastplaying a hand?
1) Value. In this situation, not applicable, given our reads. Best case scenario, we're flipping against the range of hands that we're extracting any substantial value from.
2) Fold out a better hand. Not applicable, anything ahead of us isn't folding.
3) Information. Not applicable, any substantial bet commits us to a hand.
4) Protect our holdings from draws: Not applicable, a villain this passive is not 3betting preflop any drawing hands that could hit this flop.

Now let's look at the merits of slowplaying:
1) This villain is mostly passive, so if he has us beat he probably won't charge us much, he may even try to slowplay and check a flopped set.
2) We're probably not extracting much from many of the hands we beat.
3) Our hand is strong and not vulnerable, if he's ahead we're drawing thin and if we're ahead he's drawing thin. There is nothing we need to protect our hand against.
4) Deception. Yes, this is less valuable in microlimits, but if villain was going to stack off with JJ/QQ on this flop he would have just 5bet allin preflop. Playing slowly underrepresents the strength of our hand, allowing us to extract on the turn if he checks behind on the flop. As long as we play QQ the same way, it disguises the strength of our hand and he'll be forced to stack off with a greater range of inferior holdings.

When we're donkbet into on the flop, generally this serves one of three purposes: 1) Defensive bet, with a drawing hand hoping to get a cheap card. I've already explained why I don't view this as likely.
2) Probe bet, intending to cheaply get some information as to where he stands. With the pot as big as it is relative to stacks, this is a poor place to probe, but villain is bad and may not know this.
3) Bet intending to be raised: If he's betting small hoping we raise him, slowplaying, then we're WA/WB but more likely behind, since you see this more often with hands stronger than one pair than with just one pair (although at 10NL, you can't count out a donk one pair slowplay). If his bet is a type 3, I think we're probably good ~70%, and if it's a type 2, we're always good, but not getting any more value. For this reason, checking and calling is the superior play.

Now if anyone can give a well-thought out refutation of my logic, I'd like to hear it (beyond just saying I'm "giving too much credit"; I am not playing this hand this way in a vacuum, I'm playing this hand this way with a read against a specific villain because I believe it to have the greatest expectation.)

By the way, pot control is only impossible against an aggressive villain. Potsize relative to stacksize is important if you believe villain is going to try to charge you for a potsize bet when he's ahead rather than dinking and dunking mini bets praying you don't fold your nothing

[Vyse]

I highly doubt he is ever betting .50 into $5 and $1 into $6 with hands that have AA raped. Even the worse players bet more than that with a set.

Nevermind that at 10 NL a TON of people will STILL get stacked off with QQ on this type of flop.

You also seem to totally discredit villain holding drawing hands, which, again, at these levels I don't agree with.

I think it's way more likely he has AK, KQ, QQ, JJ than what, TT? What beats you on the flop? KK, TT? You're ahead of way more holdings than you're behind and there are potential draws to tax; not betting is comical.

[punter11235]

[ QUOTE ]
check/calling the flop and turn is optimal, read my reasoning.

I have no doubt that my line is flawless for the flop and turn. The pot was 4bet preflop; what exactly does a raise protect my hand from? His range here is TT+, AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lololol. Joke ?
Bet all the streets and get it in if raised. Your line is abotu the worst possible. Way to win minimum/lose maximum.
You doesnt protect your hand, you bet because he doesnt know if you have AA or say AQ, maybe he will call with crap, maybe he will bluff raise, maybe he will go all the way with 2nd pair or worse thnking you are bluffing. All those things are perfectly reasonable to do sometimes and you lose your chance by not betting.

[ QUOTE ]
Flop and turn are a classic way ahead/way behind situation that necessitates that I NOT build a big pot.


[/ QUOTE ]

LOL.

[ QUOTE ]
it's really not worth all the value I lose by fastplaying.

[/ QUOTE ]

WOW. As wrong as it gets.

Man, get your ABC concepts straight before attempting any hand analysis. Bet if you have good hand , then bet again, then go allin, count the money. Its how you win money in this game. By doing what you did you are turning into big donator which are all over the place at any stakes including even 10NL...